by
Elliott Abrams
March 29, 2011
In National Review magazine, I write about which Arab regimes will reform and survive–and which will not.
On balance, I argue that the Arab monarchies have a better chance than the fake “republics” like Syria. But the kings, sheiks, and amirs will have to act with boldness and vision if they are to save their dynasties.
CFR seeks to foster civil and informed discussion of foreign policy issues. Opinions expressed on CFR blogs are solely those of the author or commenter, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. All comments must abide by CFR's guidelines and will be moderated prior to posting.
Pressure Points tracks developments in the Middle East and democratization and human rights issues globally.
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has now declared his candidacy for president of Iran, and many Western media accounts suggest that…
Much has been written about whether the instability in Iraq, the warfare in Syria and the crises this causes for…
It is fashionable to claim that support for democracy in Egypt is a fool’s errand, given the strength of the…
In a blog post here on April 15, I noted that Secretary of State Kerry was doing a great deal…
To be called “Iran’s Lech Walesa” probably very badly hurt Mansur Osanlu, head of the Tehran bus drivers’ union and…
Print
Email
Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Cite
Very insightful commentary – on Saudi Arabia in particular. Even with a ruler who does grasp the general utility of reforms, Riyadh sticks to its tradition of throwing bribes and Korans at its problems.
Your analysis is most certainly on target but I have two big concerns regarding change in these Arab states :
1. Will the “new democracies” be secular in nature or Islamic ? If Islamic then I fear the Iranian model could prevail .
2. What’s to say that the current administration won’t squander its influence in Jordan , Morocco , etc. as it has done elsewhere during the last two years ?
These possibilities could be very troublesome if not disasterous .
I am afraid the Syrian regime would still survive despite my firm belief that it should be the first to be changed.
This regime seems to be threatening the world of a Muslim Brotherhood alternative, which is not the case.
But are the US admin and Israel willing to have another regime in Damascus? if yes then why didn’t they work on that?
Why do they still cover a regime that supplies Hizbullah with arms and destabilizes Lebanon’s security and confiscate its political decision?
hey there it was just the info I was trying to find, can you mind only discuss the idea with our visitors ?