Two recent developments suggest that the long stand-off in Bahrain between the royal family and Shia political groups may be  moving toward resolution–or at least a chance of progress.

First, the Saudis appear to have changed their own position. Instead of urging confrontation (and indeed, sending troops to Bahrain), the Saudi royals are said now to favor conciliation. The Financial Times reported this week that
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Though there is not much Western reporting yet on this phenomenon, Shia unrest in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province appears to be growing.

Two recent reports, including interesting amateur films of demonstrations and some violence, can be found in this Arab web site and buried in the New York Times here. The key question is whether the unrest is over or will spread among Saudi Shia. Read more »

February 14 will be the anniversary of the date when demonstrations began in Bahrain last year. More demonstrations will mark the date, and violence is feared.

No events connected to the so-called “Arab Spring” have been as depressing as those in Bahrain. The tiny country (only slightly larger than the city of New York) was long viewed as a peaceful and enlightened place, but by the actual Spring of 2011 Bahrain was mired in sectarian divisions, security force violence, and errors and excesses by the government and the opposition, all worsened by the presence of foreign troops from other Gulf Cooperation Council nations. In the end, dozens were killed and communications between the Sunni government and royal family and the Shia majority had broken down. On February 11, this past Saturday, there were more demonstrations and police used tear gas to break some of them up. Read more »

December 16 was Bahrain’s “National Day” and the secretary of state duly released a congratulatory statement. Here it is in its entirety:

On behalf of President Obama and the people of the United States, I am delighted to congratulate the people of Bahrain as you celebrate your National Day. Our two countries have shared a long history of partnership built on mutual interest and mutual respect. The United States values this friendship, rooted in the history of our people-to-people ties dating back to the early years of the 20th century. We look forward to working closely with the Government of Bahrain and all Bahrainis on the important endeavor of building a prosperous, secure, and peaceful future for your nation. Read more »

The report this week by the international commission on Bahrain represents the royal family’s, and that nation’s, last chance. If the conclusions of the report do not lead to compromise and reform, the future holds instability, violence, and in the end the demise of al-Khalifa rule. Read more »

A week ago, a Bahraini “National Safety Court” sentenced a group of doctors and nurses to lengthy sentences for their activities in February and March. Eight doctors got fifteen-year sentences for what they and their defenders said was simply tending to demonstrators who had been injured. These sentences and others suggested that the royal family had decided to forget about compromises and seek only to crush dissent. Read more »

Now in its third year in office, the Obama Administration has never championed the cause of human rights. Its slow reaction in June 2009 to the stealing of the election in Iran and the birth of the “Green Movement” there, and its delay in backing the rebellions in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, are evidence of this problem. But two recent news items show just how bad the situation has become. Read more »

Defenders of the royal family in Bahrain and its suppression of protests calling for greater democracy often claim that the protests are in fact Iranian-inspired and even Iranian-run. Needless to say, the leaders of the various protest movements deny this angrily. Read more »

My post yesterday about Qatar’s support for the crushing of popular demonstrations in Bahrain has occasioned a fair amount of angry comment (here and on Twitter). My point was that when Qatar supports the call for democracy and free elections in Libya but assists in the smashing of demonstrations in Bahrain it is pursuing a foreign policy detached from principle. Read more »

On June 3 I wrote here about some good news from Bahrain. The king had lifted the state of emergency and called for dialogue, the main opposition group Al Wefaq had accepted the request, and the foreign minister (and soon after, the crown prince) had visited Washington to talk about compromise and negotiation.

And yet. Today’s news does make one wonder if this is all window dressing. The crown prince had been expected to lead this dialogue. Today the government announced that it would instead be led by Speaker of Parliament Khalifa al Dhahrani, who unlike the crown prince is regarded as a hard-liner. Perhaps even more significantly, he is not a member of the royal family and has little decision-making power. Whether Al Wefaq can enter into negotiations with him is uncertain, and the group will surely wonder why the crown prince has backed—or been pushed—out.

Watching events in Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia, the king should come to grips with reality: things cannot go back to the way they were in Bahrain last year. The sooner he enters a serious negotiation over constitutional reform with Al Wefaq and others, the sooner Bahrain can address and perhaps solve its problems.

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