It is fashionable to claim that support for democracy in Egypt is a fool’s errand, given the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood and the weakness of the opposition. Both claims deserve skeptical analysis.

The newest polls tells us that President Mohamed Morsi’s popularity continues to decline. Today 47 percent of Egyptians say they are dissatisfied with his performance while 46 percent approve of it. Only 30 percent would today vote for him for president. Read more »

To be called “Iran’s Lech Walesa” probably very badly hurt Mansur Osanlu, head of the Tehran bus drivers’ union and the best known labor leader in Iran. The regime knows that a free labor movement is dangerous to its hold on power. So it was that Osanlu was jailed by the regime–and now has been forced into exile. Read more »

I’ve written before (here) about the epidemic of prosecutions by Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood president for the “crime” of insulting him. Read more »

The degree of freedom in Egypt is declining steadily, and took another large step downward yesterday with the adoption of a law limiting political protests.

The new law, adopted by the Shura Council, requires three days’ notice to the police for any demonstration of more than 20 people–and the notice must name the organizers of the demonstration. Moreover, demonstrators must keep 600 feet away from any government building–making them invisible to the officials in that building in many cases. The punishment for “harming citizens’ interests” or posing a risk to national security is a fine and possible jail time at hard labor, as the Egypt Independent reports. Terms like “harming citizens’ interests” are purposely vague enough to permit officials to act against any protests they find inconvenient. Read more »

Two recent developments suggest that the long stand-off in Bahrain between the royal family and Shia political groups may be  moving toward resolution–or at least a chance of progress.

First, the Saudis appear to have changed their own position. Instead of urging confrontation (and indeed, sending troops to Bahrain), the Saudi royals are said now to favor conciliation. The Financial Times reported this week that
Read more »

During the years when the late Hugo Chavez ruled Venezuela and attacked human rights there, the UN Human Rights Council was unable to adopt one single resolution about Venezuela. To this sad record a final note was added this week: a moment of silence in his honor. Read more »

The White House read-out of the President’s February 26 call with Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi said this:

The President…emphasized President Morsy’s responsibility to protect the democratic principles that the Egyptian people fought so hard to secure. Read more »

Last week the Castro brothers announced the name of the man who, they said, will succeed Raul Castro when–or if–he retires at the end of the new five-year term as president to which he has just appointed himself.

The name is Miguel Diaz-Canel. He’s an apparatchik in the best Soviet style: thirty years in the Communist Party, starting with its youth groups. He’s not particularly well-known on or off the island, which may have recommended him to the Castros: previous heirs apparent sometimes got too big for their britches and had to be dumped. Of course, Canel may be dumped too, at any moment. He has no power base, and no apparent close ties with the Army and security services–who will be critical once the Castros are dead. The day Raul or Fidel is tired of him will be the day his “elevation” is undone. It will be interesting to see whether, in his new post as vice president, Canel is handed any real responsibilities by the Castros. This much is clear: nothing this man has ever done in his life suggests he believes in freedom, democracy, or human rights–or the Castros would never have selected him. Read more »

It is always a mistake to conclude, after some untoward event at the United Nations, that the bottom has been reached. Just in the past few weeks there have been two new events that suggest there is no bottom.

First, the ambassador of Sudan was elected at the end of January as a Vice-President of the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). If this was not bad enough, the President of ECOSOC (Amb. Osorio of Colombia) issued the following organizational statement on February 12: Read more »