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Showing posts for "Elizabeth C. Economy"

Podcast: Michael Pettis on the ABC’s of the Chinese Economy

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Pettis-China-economy-podcast An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, July 13, 2009. (Stringer/Reuters)

Peking University Professor of Finance Michael Pettis recently sat down with me to share his thoughts on what is going on in the Chinese economy, what the Chinese leadership needs to do to get back on track, and what it all means for the United States and the rest of the world. The takeaway: Hold on to your hats, we are in for a bumpy ride… but we are not falling off the cliff… yet.

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Podcast: The China-Pakistan Axis

by Elizabeth C. Economy
The-China-Pakistan-Axis-Andrew-Small

Books on China’s relations with Pakistan are not usually at the top of my reading list, but I decided that it was time to delve into the topic when I encountered Andrew Small’s new book, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics. Maybe it was the creative and colorful cover that drew me in, but whatever the reason, Andrew, a transatlantic fellow with the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, has converted me to a follower of the relationship. Read more »

Podcast: China’s Coming War with Asia

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Chinese-army-actors Actors dressed as Red Army soldiers perform at a gala show to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)

Jonathan Holslag, professor of international politics at the Free University of Brussels, in his terrific new book China’s Coming War with Asia puts forth the provocative thesis that war between China and Asia is inevitable. Driven by four grand aspirations—integration of frontier lands, popular support of the Party, international recognition of Chinese sovereignty, and recovery of lost territories—the Chinese leadership has embarked on a journey from which it will not deviate. Read more »

The Fits and Starts of China’s Economic Reforms

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Chinese President Xi Jinping applauds after unveiling a sculpture during the opening ceremony of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing, China, January 16, 2016. (Mark Schiefelbein/Reuters) Chinese President Xi Jinping applauds after unveiling a sculpture during the opening ceremony of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing, China, January 16, 2016. (Mark Schiefelbein/Reuters)

Over the past several months, it has become more than a full-time job trying to figure out what is going on in the Chinese economy. There have been many good efforts to make sense of all the disparate numbers that are coming out of Beijing and to tell people what to look for moving forward (including from George Magnus, Gabriel Wildau, and Eswar Prasad), but it is challenging. One thing that should not be—but often is—forgotten in the sea of numbers is the politics of the reform process. The political dimension can provide some much-needed context as to the problems Beijing is facing. Let me suggest three political factors that may be contributing to Beijing’s disjointed and seemingly sub-optimal economic decision-making process. Read more »

Podcast: Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

by Elizabeth C. Economy
A man looks at the Pudong financial district of Shanghai, November 20, 2013. (Carlos Barria/Reuters) A man looks at the Pudong financial district of Shanghai, November 20, 2013. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)

Uncertainty is at the heart of China today: uncertainty over its economic reforms, over its political situation, and over its ultimate foreign policy objectives. In this podcast, I interview New York University professor Michael Oppenheimer about his new book, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures, in which he outlines a set of scenarios for the future of China and the implications of those scenarios for U.S. policy. Listen to our discussion for his fascinating assessment of where Beijing is, where it is likely to go, and what he thinks the United States ought to do to ensure that its interests are advanced whatever the future trajectory of China. Read more »

Podcast: China and the West: Hope and Fear in the Age of Asia

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Chinese-band-great-hall A Chinese military band conductor prepares to perform before the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing March 5, 2007. (Jason Lee/Reuters)

Three years into Xi Jinping’s tenure as president of China, the world is still grasping for an understanding of who he is and where he is leading the country. Dutch journalist Fokke Obbema takes us inside China in his terrific new book, China and the West: Hope and Fear in the Age of Asia, to help us consider the often competing and contradictory trends in China’s development and the challenge that the West appears to have in managing its relations with this dynamic—and often unpredictable—power. Read more »

China and Climate Change: Three Things to Watch After Paris

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech for the opening day of the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget, near Paris, France, November 30, 2015. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech for the opening day of the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget, near Paris, France, November 30, 2015. (Stephane Mahe/Reuters)

China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, so it is not surprising that Beijing’s every statement on the issue is swallowed, digested, and regurgitated by the rest of the world. My colleagues Yanzhong Huang and Ariella Rotenberg penned a helpful piece early in the Paris climate negotiations outlining the dramatic turnaround in China’s negotiating posture over the past six years, from obstreperous in Copenhagen to virtuous in Paris. Now that Paris is over, however, the question remains as to whether China will meet its target of capping CO2 emissions by around 2030. The good news is that most analysts seem to feel that Beijing has under-promised so that it can over-deliver: Many climate experts argue that it would not be surprising for Beijing to meet its targets by 2025.

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Podcast: China’s Coming “Refolution”

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Tianjin-protest-12-8-2015 Residents evacuated from their homes after explosions in Tianjin, China, take part in a rally outside the venue of a government officials' news conference, August 19, 2015. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)

In this podcast, I interview Minxin Pei, Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 professor of government and George R. Roberts fellow and director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College, on his new research on the potential for regime transition in China. Read more »

China Recalculates Its Coal Consumption: Why This Really Matters

by Elizabeth C. Economy
A labourer works at a coking plant in Changzhi, north China's Shanxi province, July 7, 2007. Starting off in Sydney on Saturday and travelling west around the world, the Live Earth concerts, planned for this weekend, are expected to attract more than a million people to raise awareness of global warming and environmental issues like climate change. REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA) CHINA OUT A laborer works at a coking plant in Changzhi, north China's Shanxi province, July 7, 2007. (Stringer/Reuters)

It seems like a distant memory now, but just one month ago, the international community was lauding China for stepping up its commitment to address climate change by pledging to initiate a cap-and-trade system for CO2 by 2017 and contributing $3.1 billion to a fund to help poor countries combat climate change. Now, however, the talk is all about the release of a new set of game-changing Chinese statistics on coal consumption. A New York Times headline blared: “China burns much more coal than reported, complicating climate talks.”  And the Guardian reported: “China underreporting coal consumption by up to 17%, data suggests.”

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In for a Yuan, in for a Pound: Is the United Kingdom Making a Bad Bet on China?

by Elizabeth C. Economy
Supporters of China's President Xi Jinping perform opposite Big Ben in Parliament Square ahead of Xi's address to both Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, October 20, 2015. Xi is on a State visit to Britain. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls Supporters of China's President Xi Jinping perform opposite Big Ben in Parliament Square ahead of Xi's address to both Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, October 20, 2015. Xi is on a State visit to Britain. (Peter Nicholls/Reuters)

What exactly is the objection to UK Chancellor George Osborne’s desire for the United Kingdom to be Beijing’s “best partner in the West” and to have a “relationship that is second to none”? After all, there is not a country on earth that does not want to have a robust trade and investment relationship with China, the world’s second largest economy. Yet critics in and outside the United Kingdom seem taken aback by Osborne’s willingness to state up front what many countries also so clearly desire—a direct line into an economy that is one of the world’s most significant engines of growth.

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