Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan (L), Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard (2nd L), Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (C), China's Premier Wen Jiabao (2nd R) and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh join hands during a photo opportunity as part of the 5th East Asia Summit in Hanoi October 30, 2010. (Christophe Archambault/Pool/Courtesy Reuters)

Over the past year or so, I have been directing a project that brings Japanese and American experts together to discuss how the rise of China and India are affecting the United States and Japan, and if—and how—this shift in global power may alter our alliance agenda. In February, a small CFR team—including my colleagues Elizabeth Economy and Adam Segal—visited Tokyo to meet with Japanese experts from the government, private business, media and academia to hear the range of views in Japan on what exactly this structural shift in world politics means for Japan.  

What we heard from every government ministry was an emphasis on the need for Japan to be more “strategic.” Read more »

President of International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Tadateru Konoe walks among rescue workers searching through rubble in residential area of tsunami-hit Otsuchi. (Damir Sagolj/Courtesy Reuters)

The impact of Japan’s deadly earthquake and tsunami is now apparent. With search and rescue personnel now reaching some of the communities in the northeastern region of Tohoku, the devastation along the eastern coast is complete. Entire villages are in ruin, roads and bridges broken and impassible, and thousands remain stranded in isolated schools and buildings where they managed to retreat in the face of the tsunami.

The human toll is tremendous. The confirmed death toll has reached 1,834, but over 15,000 remain unaccounted for three days after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. Over 450,000 have safely evacuated, but many are without water or food. Temperatures in the chilly northeast have dipped below freezing, and many are without heating or blankets. Telephone service is starting to be restored, but water and food are hard to come by. Japanese television on Monday captured heartbreaking stories of those who survived and the long lists being compiled by local shelters of those who are searching for separated family members.  

Prime Minister Naoto Kan told the nation on Saturday that this was the worst crisis Japan has faced since the devastation of World War II, and asked every person in Japan to contribute to the effort to recover. The Japanese government has displayed remarkable calm in the face of this tremendous catastrophe, and from the beginning launched an all-out and comprehensive effort to organize the country in the face of catastrophe.    Read more »

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates meets with Japan's Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa in Tokyo. (POOL New/Courtesy Reuters)

What a difference a year makes. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates just completed his second visit to Tokyo since Japan’s government changed in 2009. The shift in tone and substance from his last visit to Tokyo is striking, and reflects the difficult learning process U.S. policymakers have gone through over the past year.

Secretary Gates pointed out the United States needs to follow the lead of the Japanese government as it works with residents of Okinawa on their concerns over the relocation of a key U.S. marine base. Japan is one of the United States’ closest allies, and thus following their lead on what is an extraordinarily difficult domestic decision seems the obvious course. Read more »

The Extraordinary Session of Japan’s Diet began on Friday—amidst deep anxiety about how the split in the Upper House will impede the government from pushing forward its policy agenda.

For the United States, this legislative session—and the ability of the Kan cabinet to work through these difficult dynamics—will offer much food for thought as to the prospects for cross-party cooperation on policy choices related to the U.S.-Japan alliance. As I noted in my op-ed on July 16 in the Nikkei (published in English in Nikkei Weekly on July 26) and in the longer PacNet essay, our ability to work closely with Japan may depend on the partnerships shaped in this early test of Kan’s ability to navigate and lead policy deliberations in a divided parliament. Read more »

Toru Hanai/Courtesy Reuters

Ever since the DPJ swept into power last fall, these Upper House elections have been identified as the moment of popular evaluation for Japan’s new ruling party. But they have also been the focal point for a rebound for Japan’s conservatives. Clearly, Sunday’s election outcome proves Japanese voters have no enthusiasm for the idea of a single party dominating their government—no matter what the political stripe. Read more »

Crack Palinggi/courtesy Reuters

My colleague Elizabeth Economy raises some important points about my article in Newsweek, but I think that, overall, she takes a far too rosy  view of the White House’s efforts, and its rewards, in Asia. Much of the polling data showing the White House’s popularity or favorability in Asia, for example, reflects as much Asian enthusiasm for Obama, and dislike for his predecessor George W. Bush, as it does any real regional response to the Obama administration’s efforts, or lack thereof, in the region. In Indonesia specifically, the favorability rating reflects Obama’s status as a kind of “local boy,” having spent part of his childhood there; by contrast, specific elements of the mooted US-Indonesia comprehensive partnership are not necessarily popular in important segments in Indonesia, including a renewed relationship with Kopassus.

I do, as Liz notes, acknowledge when the administration has made headway. However, even some of the supposed triumphs are not necessarily so. The U.S.-South Korea free trade deal was negotiated by the previous administration, and despite Obama’s vow to move forward with it, the conditions he might attach to rethinking it may well kill it anyway, thereby both raising Seoul’s hopes and crushing them at the same time. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, meanwhile, is not an initiative launched by the Obama administration – it was started by Chile, Singapore, and New Zealand, and joined by the United States years later. The Obama administration, as even some administration officials admit in private, highlighted the TPP during the president’s visit to Asia last year exactly because the White House did not have any other good news on trade to offer, and TPP is so far from coming into reality that Washington could support it without having to face any real consequences of that support.

Read more »

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/POOL

Yesterday’s resignation of Yukio Hatoyama as Japan’s prime minister was swift and complete. Prime Minister Hatoyama cited two reasons for his decision to step down. The first was his failure to fulfill a campaign promise to move the U.S. Marine Air Station Futenma off Okinawa, and the resultant collapse of his coalition with the Social Democrats. The second was his personal responsibility – along with that of the party’s secretary general Ozawa Ichiro – for ruining the party’s reform effort with suspicions of old school money politics. Read more »

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Toru Hanai

There is an abundance of criticism of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama over his handling of the Futenma issue. There seems to be a lot of smug derision and throwing up of hands these days, and the theatrics in the Japanese Diet are getting more and more intense. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be stopping in Tokyo on the 21^st of this month, and will undoubtedly witness an intensifying political fray in the parliament as government critics amp up their pre-Upper House electoral campaign. Read more »

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao

Government officials in Washington and Tokyo are working to come up with a new package of options that would allow U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to be shut down. Many thought that a compromise package reached in 2006 after years of deliberation would be implemented. Yet last fall, in the final stages of negotiation with the government in Okinawa, Japan’s new national government sought to review the decision making. Read more »

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Tim Chong

President Lee Myung-bak did steal the spotlight last week at the Nuclear Security Summit, even though I argued strenuously that it was Japan’s Moment to Shine.  Sigh.  So South Korea is the favorite Asian ally. And yes, I will admit to being somewhat jealous that it wasn’t my Asian ally sitting next to President Obama. My friends who are South Korean experts were clearly tickled  on Tuesday judging from the emails I received. One sent me a note saying it was hard for Japan to shine since Lee Myung-bak was “hogging the spotlight”! Read more »