Thailand's red shirt protester holds pictures of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during a rally at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok September 18, 2011 (Sukree Sukplang/Courtesy Reuters).

In recent weeks, leading members of the Puea Thai government have made it clear that, in terms of Thaksin Shinawatra returning to Thailand, the question is not if but when. The Nation reported last week that Deputy Prime Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit called the former Prime Minister’s return “overdue” — though he would not elaborate on how Thaksin would come back to the country, given that he is still wanted on criminal charges there. A blanket amnesty would be one way for the government to get Thaksin back. A recent reshuffle in the government, including in the Corrections Department, may be designed to smooth the way for either an amnesty or some kind of return in which Thaksin would not serve jail time.

Several factors are pushing for Thaksin’s return. Though he publicly denies it, Thaksin himself clearly wants to return and to play a role in Thai politics from inside the country. He seems unable to contain himself from traveling around Asia and upstaging his sister Yingluck’s government, showing that he still has a great desire to play a political role. He also surely wants to recover more of his assets taken following earlier court rulings. But the desire for return does not just stem from Thaksin, though some Democrat Party supporters believe that. Among the core of Puea Thai and red shirt supporters, many ardently want Thaksin to return home. To survive, Prime Minister Yingluck certainly needs to please those core supporters, who were critical not only to Puea Thai’s electoral success in July but are also at the heart of those programs that deliver the party’s message to grassroots, that run community radio stations, and that promote Yingluck on her trips outside Bangkok.

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Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra greets journalists outside his home in Dubai (Jumana El Heloueh/Courtesy Reuters).

This week’s news that, only one week after Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck officially became prime minister of Thailand, the Thai government is working to rehabilitate Thaksin, does not bode well for Thai politics. The new foreign minister, who has little experience in foreign affairs but is seen as close to Thaksin, apparently has pushed to help Thaksin travel more freely, including to Japan, even though in theory he is a fugitive from justice in Thailand. Inside the Puea Thai Party, meanwhile, many sources say that Thaksin’s allies are pushing to have him return to Thailand by the fall or early winter, when his daughter is scheduled to be married.

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Members of Thailand's new cabinet take a group photo at the Government House in Bangkok August 10, 2011. (Chaiwat Subprasom/Courtesy Reuters)

New Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is not exactly getting off to a great start in asserting her independence from her brother, exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was unfairly forced out of the country following the 2006 coup and further pressure on his allies. He is clearly the savviest politician in Thailand, but he also remains a lightning rod in the country whose continued influence over government, and possible return, are the main dangers that could cause renewed Bangkok street protests of the type that in 2006 helped spark a coup.

No one ever thought that Yingluck, whom Thaksin, nearly two decades older, treated almost like a daughter, would be completely independent. After all, Puea Thai advertised Yingluck in part as a symbol of Thaksin, which they knew would resonate with voters in the North and Northeast. The campaign featured slogans like “Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts.”  Thaksin at one point famously claimed that Yingluck was his “clone.”

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Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra gestures during a meeting near his home in Dubai, after voting in general elections ended in Bangkok July 3, 2011. (Jumana El Heloueh/Courtesy Reuters)

Thailand’s election last Sunday could be the most important in the country’s history. It provides, possibly, a last chance for all sides to come to some reconciliation. I have an article in yesterday’s Financial Times on how the new prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, her brother Thaksin, and Thailand’s traditional establishment all can help the country’s democracy get back on track.

You can see the article here.

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Puea Thai Party's Yingluck Shinawatra (C) poses for a photo with her coalition after a joint news conference in Bangkok July 4, 2011. (Adrees Latif/Courtesy Reuters)

Thailand’s political denouement has been building for a decade, since former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was first elected in early 2001, in a poll that would upend Thailand’s traditional politics and pave the way for a decade-long clash between traditional interests and Thailand’s increasingly empowered poor and new businesspeople.

An overview of Thailand’s crisis, and how such a once-promising democracy faltered, can be found here.

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