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Showing posts for "Thaksin"

Another Coup Looming in Thailand?

by Joshua Kurlantzick
An activist holds a cut-out mask of Amphon Tangnoppaku outside Bangkok Remand Prison. An activist holds a cut-out mask of Amphon Tangnoppaku outside Bangkok Remand Prison. (Sukree Sukplang/Courtesy Reuters)

Recent international media attention related to Thailand has been (quite reasonably) focused on the tragic story of Ampon Tangnoppakul, also known as “Ar Kong,” an elderly grandfather who had been sentenced to twenty years in prison for allegedly sending four text messages defaming the monarchy. This despite the fact that he had no previous political experience, and the state could not even prove he had actually sent the messages, but instead simply applied the standard that he could not disprove he sent them — obviously not a reasonable standard of proof in a democracy. Sick with cancer and other ailments, and separated from his entire family, Ampon died in jail earlier this week. Read more »

More on Thaksin’s Imminent Return

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra (front L), welcomes his supporters during a ceremony in Siem Reap province, Cambodia, April 14, 2012. Former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra (front L), welcomes his supporters during a ceremony in Siem Reap province, Cambodia, April 14, 2012. (Samrang Pring/Courtesy Reuters)

Over at New Mandala, there is a detailed report by longtime correspondent Nick Nostitz of Thaksin Shinawatra’s visit to Cambodia during the Thai New Year. For followers of Thailand and Indochinese politics, it is well worth a read.

As with Nostitz’s prior reports and books, this one is full of on-the-ground details, but what struck me the most was the intense feeling poured out by some of the Thais who traveled to meet Thaksin, the kind of emotion I previously associated in Thailand with Thais’ meetings with, er, a man whose title ends with “Nine.” Read more »

When Will Thaksin Return?

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra greets the media upon his arrival at the Siem Reap International Airport in Cambodia, April 14, 2012. Thailand's fugitive former premier Thaksin took some small but symbolic steps towards the fringes of his homeland on Wednesday after five years in exile. Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra greets the media upon his arrival at the Siem Reap International Airport in Cambodia, April 14, 2012. Thailand's fugitive former premier Thaksin took some small but symbolic steps towards the fringes of his homeland on Wednesday after five years in exile. (Samrang Pring/Courtesy Reuters)

A spate of articles over the past week has highlighted the growing possibility that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will soon return to Thailand from exile. During a recent visit to Laos, just across the border from the Thai Northeast, Thaksin told supporters that he is going to return to Thailand within the next three or four months, in time for his birthday. As The Economist noted last week, his recent visit to Laos had all the trappings of a state visit, with high security, crowds of supporters, and the highest-level audiences with the Lao government. Thaksin has also increasingly dropped the façade that he is “retired” from politics, though he continues to insist that he is not interested in returning to the premiership. Read more »

Thailand’s Collapsing Peace: Part II

by Joshua Kurlantzick
The return of Suranand Vejjajiva is seen as a signal that Thaksin Shinawatra (above) is poised to return to Thailand. The return of Suranand Vejjajiva is seen as a signal that Thaksin Shinawatra (above) is poised to return to Thailand. (Samrang Pring/Courtesy Reuters)

The Nation (the Thailand version) has an article today noting that Suranand Vejjajiva, who was the Prime Minister’s Office Minister in previous Thaksin Shinawatra governments, has now begun playing a major role in the administration of the current prime minister, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck. Suranand was banned from engaging in politics for five years following the coup that deposed Thaksin; but, like many other prominent pro-Thaksin politicians, his ban is almost up, and he and others are expected to return to the political scene in full force soon. Read more »

Thailand’s Tentative Peace Is Collapsing

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Red shirt supporters wave flags as thousands of people gather outside the Grand Palace to celebrate the birthday of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Bangkok. Red shirt supporters wave flags as thousands of people gather outside the Grand Palace to celebrate the birthday of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej in Bangkok. (Damir Sagolj/Courtesy Reuters)

In a brief but informative piece in the Wall Street Journal recently, veteran correspondent James Hookaway notes that “a delicate détente between Thailand’s powerful armed forces and a populist government led by [Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra] … is looking increasingly fragile.”

Saying that the truce is “increasingly fragile” is like saying Homer Simpson enjoys donuts or Barney Frank is a difficult interview: Thailand could easily blow up again, soon. Read more »

Thaksin Coming Back: Now What?

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Thailand's red shirt protester holds pictures of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during a rally at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok September 18, 2011.

Thailand's red shirt protester holds pictures of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during a rally at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok September 18, 2011 (Sukree Sukplang/Courtesy Reuters).

In recent weeks, leading members of the Puea Thai government have made it clear that, in terms of Thaksin Shinawatra returning to Thailand, the question is not if but when. The Nation reported last week that Deputy Prime Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit called the former Prime Minister’s return “overdue” — though he would not elaborate on how Thaksin would come back to the country, given that he is still wanted on criminal charges there. A blanket amnesty would be one way for the government to get Thaksin back. A recent reshuffle in the government, including in the Corrections Department, may be designed to smooth the way for either an amnesty or some kind of return in which Thaksin would not serve jail time.

Several factors are pushing for Thaksin’s return. Though he publicly denies it, Thaksin himself clearly wants to return and to play a role in Thai politics from inside the country. He seems unable to contain himself from traveling around Asia and upstaging his sister Yingluck’s government, showing that he still has a great desire to play a political role. He also surely wants to recover more of his assets taken following earlier court rulings. But the desire for return does not just stem from Thaksin, though some Democrat Party supporters believe that. Among the core of Puea Thai and red shirt supporters, many ardently want Thaksin to return home. To survive, Prime Minister Yingluck certainly needs to please those core supporters, who were critical not only to Puea Thai’s electoral success in July but are also at the heart of those programs that deliver the party’s message to grassroots, that run community radio stations, and that promote Yingluck on her trips outside Bangkok.

Read more »

Thaksin Closer to Coming Back?

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra greets journalists outside his home in Dubai.

Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra greets journalists outside his home in Dubai (Jumana El Heloueh/Courtesy Reuters).

This week’s news that, only one week after Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck officially became prime minister of Thailand, the Thai government is working to rehabilitate Thaksin, does not bode well for Thai politics. The new foreign minister, who has little experience in foreign affairs but is seen as close to Thaksin, apparently has pushed to help Thaksin travel more freely, including to Japan, even though in theory he is a fugitive from justice in Thailand. Inside the Puea Thai Party, meanwhile, many sources say that Thaksin’s allies are pushing to have him return to Thailand by the fall or early winter, when his daughter is scheduled to be married.

Read more »

Yingluck’s Appointees

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Members of Thailand's new cabinet take a group photo at the Government House in Bangkok August 10, 2011.

Members of Thailand's new cabinet take a group photo at the Government House in Bangkok August 10, 2011. (Chaiwat Subprasom/Courtesy Reuters)

New Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is not exactly getting off to a great start in asserting her independence from her brother, exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was unfairly forced out of the country following the 2006 coup and further pressure on his allies. He is clearly the savviest politician in Thailand, but he also remains a lightning rod in the country whose continued influence over government, and possible return, are the main dangers that could cause renewed Bangkok street protests of the type that in 2006 helped spark a coup.

No one ever thought that Yingluck, whom Thaksin, nearly two decades older, treated almost like a daughter, would be completely independent. After all, Puea Thai advertised Yingluck in part as a symbol of Thaksin, which they knew would resonate with voters in the North and Northeast. The campaign featured slogans like “Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts.”  Thaksin at one point famously claimed that Yingluck was his “clone.”

Read more »

Thailand’s Critical Election

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra gestures during a meeting near his home in Dubai, after voting in general elections ended in Bangkok July 3, 2011.

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra gestures during a meeting near his home in Dubai, after voting in general elections ended in Bangkok July 3, 2011. (Jumana El Heloueh/Courtesy Reuters)

Thailand’s election last Sunday could be the most important in the country’s history. It provides, possibly, a last chance for all sides to come to some reconciliation. I have an article in yesterday’s Financial Times on how the new prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, her brother Thaksin, and Thailand’s traditional establishment all can help the country’s democracy get back on track.

You can see the article here.

Read more »

How Thailand Got Here

by Joshua Kurlantzick
Puea Thai Party's Yingluck Shinawatra (C) poses for a photo with her coalition after a joint news conference in Bangkok July 4, 2011.

Puea Thai Party's Yingluck Shinawatra (C) poses for a photo with her coalition after a joint news conference in Bangkok July 4, 2011. (Adrees Latif/Courtesy Reuters)

Thailand’s political denouement has been building for a decade, since former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was first elected in early 2001, in a poll that would upend Thailand’s traditional politics and pave the way for a decade-long clash between traditional interests and Thailand’s increasingly empowered poor and new businesspeople.

An overview of Thailand’s crisis, and how such a once-promising democracy faltered, can be found here.

Read more »

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