Stumping on Trade for the Latino Vote
Florida has a way of playing kingmaker in U.S. elections, and the Latin American lobby has a way of having its way in Florida. It’s a little ironic that this is the case, given that the United States is often criticized for giving short shrift to Latin America in its foreign policy dealings. It does, however, mean that the policy community often gets a more than a sneak peak at would-be Latin America policy as candidates stump for support in the Sunshine state.
Mitt Romney, speaking in Miami over the weekend, touted free trade as a means to undermining the nationalistic policies of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. The Associated Press notes that Romney’s gambit may signify an attempt to cozy up to Florida’s Venezuelan-American community, which numbers over eighty thousand, representing about half of the Venezuelan-Americans in the United States.
Whatever you make of Romney’s policy recommendation, it is well worth noting the peculiar inconsistencies that Florida’s Latin American voters seem to be encouraging in candidates’ stances toward trade in the region. While Romney and other candidates press for free trade in Venezuela and other parts of Latin America, many make nearly opposite arguments with respect to Cuba. As is noted in this CFR.org Issue Tracker, which outlines the candidates’ stances on Cuba, Romney has expressed support for the current embargo on Cuba. At his Sunday speech, he reiterated this stance, saying he would not move to restore economic relations with Cuba unless it had free elections.
The political backdrop, of course, is that Florida’s Cuban-American population substantially outweighs even its Venezuelan-American population—and Florida’s Cubans overwhelmingly favor maintaining American sanctions. Yet if the goal of U.S.-Latin American policy, as Romney suggests, is to “reestablish our relationships and trust,” there is a good deal of academic literature arguing that Romney’s suggested course in Venezuela might work wonders in Cuba. Jake Colvin, an expert at the National Foreign Trade Council, makes just this argument in a new CFR.org Online Debate, saying U.S. sanctions against Cuba have only “rallied support for nationalistic regimes.”
