The Economy as ‘Frontrunner’
Three major pollsters came to the Council on Foreign Relations New York headquarters on January 16 and gave their take on how foreign policy issues are playing out in the presidential elections. All agreed the dominant themes in this race could not be compared to issues in the last few presidential elections. The pollsters also noted the intersection in the campaign between energy policy, with talk of ending dependence on foreign oil, and the foreign policy debate.
Kellyanne Conway, president of the polling company, said this election was about security and affordability, and declared the economy the “new frontrunner.”
Panel members said Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) talked about foreign policy more than any other Republican candidate, though Conway noted that Republican Fred Thompson has also attempted to position himself strongly on foreign policy issues. Meanwhile, the lagging economy has displaced tough talk on the war and terrorism as the dominant talking point among Republicans. Moderator Joe Klein of Time Magazine said the fiscally conservative McCain may be “very annoyed” to learn that war spending—at $8 billion a month—has now become an economic issue.
Pollster Geoffrey Garin, president of Peter D. Hart Research Associates, said despite polls acknowledging the surge as a success, Bush’s approval ratings and numbers supporting the war have barely budged. He said people see the war as having gone on too long and “at great cost” to the United States. Garin said Democrats are more “of one mind” on the issues facing the country, especially lack of support for the war. Instead, the two frontrunners, Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL), have focused more time on differentiating leadership approaches. In the general election, the polling experts said, the test will be for candidates of the major parties to compare and contrast their approaches to the Bush foreign policy.
Douglas Schoen, chairman of the polling company Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, said Democrats need to avoid getting trapped in an isolationist message during the primaries. He called such a message the “kiss of death” in the general election and noted strong signs in the electorate that the United States could not simply disengage from Iraq.
