Obama and the ‘Gelb-Biden’ Plan for Iraq
DENVER — As Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE), Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) running mate, prepares to take center stage here, questions swirl around his most prominent contribution to the Iraq debate: the plan for a federalized Iraqi state he proposed in May 2006 jointly with CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb.
The plan, set forth at a time when Iraq’s violence was running at peak levels, often got mischaracterized as a “partition” plan – something both men spent a good deal of time knocking down. In fact, the plan calls for broad autonomy for Iraq’s three major factions, the Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis, as part of a comprehensive agreement to retain Iraq’s current borders. Negotiations would devolve certain powers – such as foreign affairs, defense, and some infrastructure issues – to a central government in Baghdad.
With Biden now delivering what is for all intents and purposes the keynote foreign policy address of the 2008 Democratic convention, the question remains: Is the plan now official Obama policy? Biden has not confronted the question directly, and tonight’s speech may or may not provide some clarity.
Reached by CFR.org, Gelb said that Biden still supports the plan and that “to my knowledge, has signed on to it, making it clear that the decision is up to the Iraqis and this isn’t something we[the U.S.]’ll shove down their throats.”
Last September, as the Senate debated alternatives to the ‘surge,’ the Gelb-Biden plan won 75 votes in the Senate, but failed to win the support in the House it would have needed to move forward. Its status today, says Gelb, is a bit uncertain in that it “has gotten subsumed in the recent total focus on ‘the surge,’ U.S. troop withdrawals, and the Iraqi insistence on a withdrawal schedule.” He said the two of them, in touch frequently, continue to believe that federalization remains the “only way to bring about a political settlement.”
Will Obama begin adding a line about federalism in his stump speeches? That remains to be seen. In spite of the perceived successes of ‘the surge,’ as Gelb notes, “I believe that Biden, Obama, and certainly I, believe that the underlying political reality remains one of fragmentation.”
August 28th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
The Biden plan may still come to pass for Iraq.
Iraq must be the force that makes a plan like that work. I am glad Biden will be the V.P.