As the presidential candidates and President Bush met in Washington (USA Today) to try to move along the financial bailout plan on Thursday, global banking experts gathered at the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago to discuss the effects of U.S. market turmoil on European and emerging markets.
Until recently, countries outside of the United States and Europe were “relatively unscathed” by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, said Laura Kodres, an official in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund. In recent weeks, that has changed.
Since U.S. financial turbulence began over a year ago, Kodres said, emerging market currencies continued to appreciate. In the last week, though, those currencies have seen some “significant depreciation.” Likewise, those markets had been relatively stable until recently, but in the last few weeks, Kodres said, volatility has shot up.
Following the onset of the crisis, foreign investments continued to flow into emerging markets due to the common perception that those countries might be a “safe haven,” said Kodres. Though the economies in many of those countries continue to enjoy relatively strong growth rates, they are beginning to slow. As a result of financial turmoil, these markets have seen a “substantial pullback” from investors cautious about any “risky assets,” Kodres said.
Kodres said emerging markets have proven better equipped to withstand economic shock than in the past. She called for better crisis planning and improved management of financial leverage and risk-taking. That job “is not just for policy makers and government authorities, but also for private sector,” she said.