Challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan
Middle East expert Juan Cole reviewed President-elect Barack Obama’s positions to date on Iraq and Afghanistan in a lecture at the University of Chicago on Wednesday evening. Cole, who tracks 
events in the Middle East on his Informed Comment blog, said many of Obama’s campaign positions on the Iraq war have recently become “more plausible” as a result of developments there.
Here are some of Cole’s main points:
BASES: Cole praised Obama’s opposition to building long-term military bases in Iraq. He argued that Iraq “is not actually very much like Japan, and even less like South Korea,” where the United States continues to maintain a military presence decades after the end of conflict. Cole said Obama recognizes “the lack of feasibility with regard to trying to keep bases in Iraq,” and said such bases would likely be an “irritant.”
AQI: Cole also said Obama “rightly dismisses” the argument that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will allow al-Qaeda to take over the country. Because Iraq is a majority Shiite country with a largely Shiite army, the idea that Iraq could be taken overtaken by al-Qaeda is “bizarre,” Cole said. “There are no Shiite al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is all about killing Shiites wherever you find them.”
AFGHANISTAN: Cole said Obama’s plan to provide Afghanistan with $1 billion in civilian aid is “very necessary, but a drop in the bucket compared to the real needs.” He noted Obama’s plan to send more troops to Afghanistan is not popular among NATO allies whose publics do not necessarily support the war effort.
PAKISTAN: Obama has said he would authorize U.S. air strikes inside Pakistan with “actionable intelligence” and if the Pakistani government refused to act. Cole said this position is “not really that controversial,” and that it gradually has become the policy of the Bush administration. Still, Cole said, “you don’t ordinarily in diplomatic relations pronounce that you will bomb your allies.”
Cole urged Obama to act as “diplomat-in-chief” in Iraq and Afghanistan, and emphasized the importance of strong leadership in the Obama administration’s approach to the Middle East.
