Posted on Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 by Robert McMahon
When CFR.org started blogging on the U.S. presidential campaign back in May 2007, the foreign policy terrain appeared relatively uncomplicated. The war in Iraq looked to be the dominant issue. Under the surface, of course, were many simmering issues related to foreign policy and a surprising number emerged as flashpoints during the ensuing campaign – and provided rich mining for our blog – including immigration for the Republicans and trade for the Democrats. The assassination of a Pakistani prime minister and the outbreak of war between Russia and Georgia during the course of the campaigns brought concerns about U.S. policy toward Islamabad and Moscow to the fore. But the main surging issue turned out to be the economy. Like so many of the other issues there were cross-sections for domestic and foreign policy here, as underscored in this CFR.org Issue Guide.
We sought to bring context to the foreign policy debates through our Issue Trackers, twenty-three in all, which charted the candidates’ views, votes, and occasional shifting stances on important foreign policy issues, while avoiding judgment on the merits of their positions. Written and regularly updated by our Chicago-based contributing editor Joanna Klonsky, the trackers quickly became essential reading for a wide range of mainstream media as well as numerous politically wired blogs.
In our daily “Morning Update” posts, we’d filter through the headlines, distilling the news down to just the most important foreign policy stories of the campaign that day.
Our regular “Quote of the Day” posts highlighted the candidates’ significant foreign policy statements on the pressing issue of the moment.
CFR.org also blogged live from the Republican and Democratic National Conventions in late summer 2008. On the blog, we posted interviews with convention delegates and political leaders, gauging their views of their candidates’ foreign policy platform. We reported from CFR’s series of foreign policy panels, featuring experts and statesmen like former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke, among others. You can look back at our coverage from the DNC here, and from the RNC here.
More than a year and a half since our first post, CFR.org’s campaign and transition coverage now comes to an end. All of CFR.org’s campaign and transition content will remain available on our Transition 2008 Archive page, including our candidate and cabinet profiles, Issue Trackers, expert analysis, and the blog itself.
Posted in General Election, Transition | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, November 5th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
A large majority of Latinos turned out to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday, exit polls showed. 67 percent of Latino voters picked Obama overall, while 31 percent voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the national election. Hispanic voters helped deliver several crucial states to the Obama campaign, including Florida, Nevada and Colorado.
In Florida, where Cuban-American voters have long been a reliably Republican bloc, some exit polls showed Obama with 35 percent of their vote– more than double what former Democratic candidate John Kerry received from the group in 2004 (CBS). This CFR.org Issue Tracker details the candidates’ positions on U.S. policy toward Cuba.
In total, Obama got 57 percent of the Latino vote in Florida (CNN), while 42 percent went to McCain, exit polls showed. In Colorado, 73 percent of Hispanic voters supported Obama. In Nevada, Obama received 76 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls.
McCain at one time enjoyed popular support from Hispanic voters in his home state of Arizona. The Dallas Morning News’ Emily Ramshaw writes today that the McCain campaign had been hoping McCain’s “immigration experience and social conservatism would appeal to Latinos.” But on Tuesday, according to exit polls, Obama won 56 percent of Arizona’s Latino vote, compared with McCain’s 41 percent.
Posted in Cuba, General Election, Immigration, Latin America | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, November 5th, 2008 by campaign2008
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won a resounding victory over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Tuesday, leading an electoral surge (Politico) that gave Democrats the White House and strong majorities in both chambers of Congress. Obama finished his nearly two-year run by making history as the first African-American to become president, riding a message of change and reform that resonated with a country on the brink of recession and engaged in two wars. The election drew huge turnouts and exit polls showed the economy was the top issue (WSJ) for nearly two-thirds of voters. Iraq and terrorism trailed far behind the economy as concerns, each chosen by 10 percent of voters as the top issue. In 2004, U.S. voters rated both terrorism and the economy equally as their leading concerns.
In his victory speech, Obama said the American people have convincingly called for change and must now demonstrate patience and reconciliation as they prepare to tackle problems including “two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.” McCain, in conceding defeat, urged Americans to pull together to support Obama in confronting their economic challenges and defending “our security in a dangerous world.”
Analysts said Obama will face a raft of tough choices in the period ahead, including likely pressures from some constituents for more government activism and intervention (WashPost). In the immediate future, the president-elect now enters a critical transition period in which some past administrations have struggled to establish a solid foreign policy framework, as this new Backgrounder explains. CFR Issue Guides on the global financial crisis, Iraq, and Pakistan explore the challenging policy terrain ahead for Obama’s administration.
A pivotal front for initiating new spending and policy initiatives is Congress. In addition to boosting their House majority (TheHill), Democrats gained at least five Senate seats, which would bring them to control fifty-six of the one-hundred total seats. That’s four short of the number that would help Democrats stop opposition Republicans from blocking their agenda but still strengthens their hand (NPR). CQ Politics profiles the new members of Congress.
There were a number of energy measures on state ballots and results on this legislation were mixed (AP). A ballot measure requiring Missouri to produce 15 percent of its electricity from clean sources by 2021 was approved while an initiative that would have obliged California state utilities to generate 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2025 failed. A second failed California proposition would have granted $5 billion in rebates (LAT) for buyers of alternative-fuel vehicles. Amendment 58 in Colorado also failed (Denver Post). That measure would have ended a tax credit for the oil industry and redirected that money toward college funding.
Posted in Economy, Energy Policy, General Election, Iraq, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
Latino voters, in particular Cubans, garner most of the attention when U.S. presidential races are broken down into influential ethnic groups. But some smaller ethnic groups this year provide interesting insight into changing voting patterns. Here is a look at a few of these groups:
While Turkish-Americans typically vote for Republican candidates, conventional wisdom about the group is falling by the wayside in this election.
Newsweek reporters Bahar Kader and Melis Özpinar write:
On the one hand, they feel closer to the Republicans because they feel the GOP has a more balanced approach to Turkish arguments on issues such as the Armenian genocide allegations and the dispute over Cyprus. On the other, they believe a Democratic leader will be better placed to solve the financial crisis and work toward achieving a more peaceful world.
ARMENIAN-AMERICANS: The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire blog reports on the influence of the Armenian vote in Michigan’s 9th District, situated in the suburbs of Detroit. Reporter Easha Anand calls the impact of the Armenian vote in the area “an unknown factor” in the local Congressional race between incumbent Rep. Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.
VIETNAMESE-AMERICANS: Vietnamese-Americans are divided along generational lines in this election in one part of California. A San Jose Mercury News analysis shows young Vietnamese-Americans in Santa Clara County, California are registered as Democrats over Republicans by a ratio of nearly four to one. Overall, though, Vietnamese emigres are largely Republican, as evidenced by a recent poll from the University of California-Berkeley and three other major universities. The poll showed all Asian-American groups except Vietnamese-Americans supporting Obama over McCain. Fifty-one percent of Vietnamese-Americans favored McCain while 24 percent supported Obama, according to the poll.
Posted in General Election, Immigration | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 by campaign2008
Voters across the United States are heading to the polls today to elect either Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) or Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) as the next U.S. president, capping a lengthy and historic campaign (USAToday). Attention in many U.S. papers turned to the numerous challenges that will face the next president. The Wall Street Journal evaluates the economic pressures that await the next president upon his inauguration in January.
CFR.org examines the range of foreign policy issues of significance to the 2008 campaign and offers analysis on the financial crisis, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, disputes with Iran, questions of globalization, trade, and immigration. This Backgrounder profiles Obama’s main foreign policy advisers. This one looks at McCain’s.
The presidential elections have attracted extraordinary interest around the world. U.S.-funded broadcaster RFE/RL surveys analysts from the Middle East and Central Asia about what the U.S. vote means for their nations. The Korea Times reports Seoul is watching the vote closely but doesn’t suspect it will have a major impact on U.S.-South Korean relations. The German-funded broadcaster Deutsche-Welle reports European Union foreign ministers are drafting a letter to present to the U.S. president-elect making recommendations on several policy issues, including how to strengthen transatlantic ties.
Posted in General Election, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
Posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 by campaign2008
With one day to go before the United States presidential election, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) made their final push for votes. Both presidential candidates have op-eds in the Wall Street Journal on Monday laying out their policy agendas. Obama repeats his pledge to “end the Iraq war responsibly” while ramping up efforts to defeat al-Qaeda and “restore our moral standing so that America remains the last, best hope of Earth.” McCain writes that U.S. forces have dealth “devastating blows to al-Qaeda, especially in Iraq,” but warned about the unraveling of the situation there in the event of a premature troop withdrawal.
A new CFR.org issue guide provides an outline of CFR’s resources on the foreign policy issues facing the next president. A new Daily Analysis takes a look back a how foreign policy issues have played into the 2008 campaign and questions to what extent they will guide U.S. voters tomorrow.
The New York Times reports the campaign focus for many Republicans has turned to shoring up contested seats in the House of Representatives and Senate. The Economist, meanwhile, takes a country-by-country look at how the world views the U.S. elections.
CIA: Newsweek considers potential changes to the CIA under the next U.S. presidential administration.
GUANTANAMO: The International Herald Tribune reports an increasing number of detainees at the U.S. prison facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, appear ready to challenge their detentions in court, and that the issue could prove an immense challenge for the next U.S. president.
ADVISERS: The Christian Science Monitor lists potential foreign policy advisers to an McCain or Obama administration. CFR.org profiles the top foreign policy, national security and economic advisers to the Obama and McCain campaigns.
Posted in General Election, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
Posted on Friday, October 31st, 2008 by campaign2008
With the U.S. presidential campaign headed into its final weekend, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) made final pushes for votes, and analysts began looking ahead to the transition of administrations that will follow the November 4 vote. The Financial Times reports Obama’s campaign is sticking largely to its economic message as it enters the final few days of campaigning. The Los Angeles Times looks at McCain’s final days of campaigning in potential swing states Ohio and Florida, and says both candidates have sought to highlight differences in their economic plans.
A new CFR.org Daily Analysis looks at how foreign policy issues have played out over the course of the campaign, dominated in its later stages by the financial crisis. The article says despite the recent focus on economic concerns, questions of national security and U.S. global influence stayed in focus throughout the process. In a Newsweek cover story, CFR President Richard Haass presents a foreign policy plan for the next U.S. president.
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow he plans to try to “facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and resolve the Kashmir crisis.” Obama also discussed his plan to send more troops to Afghanistan and said he will provide alternatives to farmers in the poppy trade there.
NATIONAL SECURITY: Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), Sen. John McCain’s runningmate, spoke broadly (CNN) about national security Thursday after meeting with a group of McCain campaign national security advisers. “It used to be we could place domestic and foreign concerns in more or less distinct categories — and choose a president according to which seemed the greater priority at the time. But the world has so drastically changed and those days are gone,” she said. “Even if a most immediate concern is economic, our recovery will still depend on leadership that can protect and advance our security and our vital interests in the world.”
Posted in Afghanistan, General Election, Morning Update, Pakistan | 0 Comments »
Posted on Thursday, October 30th, 2008 by campaign2008
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) told a Florida crowd that national security dangers lurk and should not be ignored amid the financial crisis. He mentioned as one potential crisis “the success of the Iranian regime in its program of acquiring nuclear weapons,” which he said could threaten Israel or spark “an uncontrollable nuclear arms race across the region.”
Separately, McCain said Wednesday he would increase revenue from offshore drilling (AP) for Florida and other coastal states.
Posted in Energy Policy, General Election, Iran, Morning Update, Palestinian-Israeli | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 by campaign2008
“The price of oil is declining largely because of the market’s expectation of a broad recession that would lower demand. This is hardly a good sign of things to come, and should only add to our sense of urgency in gaining energy independence. When our economy recovers, and growth once again creates new demand, we could run into the same brick wall of rising oil and gasoline prices — and now is the time to make sure that doesn’t happen. In Washington, we can view this period of lower oil prices as just one more chance to make excuses — and on the problem of energy security, we’ve heard enough excuses. Or we can view it as an opportunity to finally confront the problem.”
–Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), in a policy address Wednesday in Ohio.View this Post
Posted in Energy Policy, General Election, Quote of the Day | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, October 28th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
The Miami Herald reports today that the economy is trumping U.S. policy toward Cuba as the most important important issue for voters in South Florida’s three congressional races:
In years past, Cuba has been a dominant issue and given the three hard-line Cuban-American Republicans an edge among like-minded, motivated voters. But with a faltering economy and increasingly diverse districts, the Cuba debate has largely receded to Spanish language radio as the candidates trade barbs on taxes, trade and fitness for office.
Incumbent Republican Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen are all being challenged by Democratic candidates who have benefited from the support of young Cuban-American voters who are “weary of exile politics,” according to the report.
Politico also looks at these hotly-contested races today, and considers the possibility of an end to the decades of Republican support from the Cuban-American community in the area.
U.S.-Cuba policy hasn’t played a major role in the presidential race of late, either. The issue has barely come up since Cuban Independence Day in May 2008, when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Democratic candidates Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) outlined their respective positions on policy toward Raul Castro’s regime.
For more on the presidential and vice-presidential candidates positions on U.S. policy toward Cuba, see this CFR.org Issue Tracker on the matter.
Posted in Cuba, Economy, General Election | 0 Comments »
