Posted on Wednesday, November 5th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
A large majority of Latinos turned out to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday, exit polls showed. 67 percent of Latino voters picked Obama overall, while 31 percent voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the national election. Hispanic voters helped deliver several crucial states to the Obama campaign, including Florida, Nevada and Colorado.
In Florida, where Cuban-American voters have long been a reliably Republican bloc, some exit polls showed Obama with 35 percent of their vote– more than double what former Democratic candidate John Kerry received from the group in 2004 (CBS). This CFR.org Issue Tracker details the candidates’ positions on U.S. policy toward Cuba.
In total, Obama got 57 percent of the Latino vote in Florida (CNN), while 42 percent went to McCain, exit polls showed. In Colorado, 73 percent of Hispanic voters supported Obama. In Nevada, Obama received 76 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls.
McCain at one time enjoyed popular support from Hispanic voters in his home state of Arizona. The Dallas Morning News’ Emily Ramshaw writes today that the McCain campaign had been hoping McCain’s “immigration experience and social conservatism would appeal to Latinos.” But on Tuesday, according to exit polls, Obama won 56 percent of Arizona’s Latino vote, compared with McCain’s 41 percent.
Posted in Cuba, General Election, Immigration, Latin America | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
Latino voters, in particular Cubans, garner most of the attention when U.S. presidential races are broken down into influential ethnic groups. But some smaller ethnic groups this year provide interesting insight into changing voting patterns. Here is a look at a few of these groups:
While Turkish-Americans typically vote for Republican candidates, conventional wisdom about the group is falling by the wayside in this election.
Newsweek reporters Bahar Kader and Melis Özpinar write:
On the one hand, they feel closer to the Republicans because they feel the GOP has a more balanced approach to Turkish arguments on issues such as the Armenian genocide allegations and the dispute over Cyprus. On the other, they believe a Democratic leader will be better placed to solve the financial crisis and work toward achieving a more peaceful world.
ARMENIAN-AMERICANS: The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire blog reports on the influence of the Armenian vote in Michigan’s 9th District, situated in the suburbs of Detroit. Reporter Easha Anand calls the impact of the Armenian vote in the area “an unknown factor” in the local Congressional race between incumbent Rep. Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.
VIETNAMESE-AMERICANS: Vietnamese-Americans are divided along generational lines in this election in one part of California. A San Jose Mercury News analysis shows young Vietnamese-Americans in Santa Clara County, California are registered as Democrats over Republicans by a ratio of nearly four to one. Overall, though, Vietnamese emigres are largely Republican, as evidenced by a recent poll from the University of California-Berkeley and three other major universities. The poll showed all Asian-American groups except Vietnamese-Americans supporting Obama over McCain. Fifty-one percent of Vietnamese-Americans favored McCain while 24 percent supported Obama, according to the poll.
Posted in General Election, Immigration | 0 Comments »
Posted on Friday, October 17th, 2008 by campaign2008
Deutsche Welle’s Across the Pond blog compiles reactions in the foreign press to Wednesday night’s presidential debate.
LATINO VOTE: The Los Angeles Times looks at the Protestant Latino vote. The candidates’ positions on immigration policy will play a central role in deciding the vote of more than 80 percent of that constituent group, a new poll shows.
CLIMATE CHANGE: The Washington Post’s Marcela Sanchez writes that the next administration should attempt to forge a “green agreement for the Americas.”
Posted in Climate Change, General Election, Immigration, Latin America, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
With four weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election, 200 business leaders, academics and government officials gathered in Chicago this week to launch the Global Midwest Initiative, an effort to examine the “impact on and response of the Midwest to globalization,” according to Marshall Bouton, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
With an annual gross regional product of $2.8 trillion, according to World Business Chicago, the Midwestern economy is larger than most countries in the world. Foreign policy issues like free trade, immigration energy and environmental concerns have all had a profound impact on the region, which houses electoral swing states including Indiana, Missouri and Ohio. Some studies have shown anti-globalization sentiments are rising in the region. A recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs public opinion study (PDF) showed more than 50 percent of Midwesterners think globalization is “mostly bad” for the United States. About 40 percent of Midwesterners said they oppose agreements to lower trade barriers. More than 80 percent of Midwesterners said they think the government should focus on domestic problems, while only 18 percent said the United States should focus on challenges abroad.
Here are some points of interest from Monday’s session:
TRADE: Former Michigan Governor John Engler, a keynote speaker at the conference, said trade has become a “bogeyman” to the Midwestern public, but said Midwest-based companies understand the region’s dependence on trade. He recommended that the United States ratify the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) “without delay,” and said the U.S.-Panama FTA is “ready to go as well.” He also told CFR.org the United States should consider pursuing a U.S.-European Union FTA to lower barriers in the aftermath of the failure of the Doha Round global trade talks earlier this year. Engler suggested the creation of an international sectoral agreement related to goods and equipment designed to reduce pollution or otherwise protect the environment.
ENERGY: Former Iowa Governer Thomas Vilsack said the Midwest can position itself to play a leading role as the United States shifts to alternative energy and works to combat climate change. He said the Midwest should be involved in shaping a possible cap-and-trade system of carbon emissions, calling the region “the center of responding to the carbon challenges” the country faces. Vilsack said Midwestern leaders should work to increase CAFE standards and should continue efforts to retrofit buildings to be more energy efficient. He also noted the region’s numerous prestigious research universities, which he called upon to coordinate their research and development efforts on renewable energy and related infrastructure issues.
IMMIGRATION: The Midwest has seen a major influx of immigration in recent years, not only from Mexico but also from places like Somalia, the Balkans, and of Hmong people. Rob Paral, a consultant and researcher on immigration, said the economic downturn has hit Mexican immigrants in the United States particularly hard, and said the process by which Mexicans can legally immigrate to the United States has become increasingly difficult. He said local governments should resist the urge to get involved in immigration control. Instead, he said, they should leave that responsibility to the federal government and focus on economic and community development.
Posted in Climate Change, Energy Policy, Immigration | 0 Comments »
Posted on Thursday, September 11th, 2008 by campaign2008
Both presidential candidates will visit Ground Zero Thursday morning to commemorate the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The Washington Post says the issue of terrorism has become less prominent in the presidential campaign.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced Wednesday he will leave the selection (ABC) of a new refueling tanker to the next president, saying he can “no longer complete a competition that would be viewed as fair and objective in this highly charged environment.”
Speaking before the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute on Wednesday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) discussed immigration policy (WSJ). “This election is about the 12 million people living in the shadows, the communities taking immigration enforcement into their own hand,” he said. “They are counting on us to stop the hateful rhetoric filling our airwaves, and rise above the fear, and rise above the demagoguery, and finally enact comprehensive immigration reform.”
Posted in General Election, Immigration, Military, Morning Update, Terrorism | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008 by Robert McMahon
Picking up where it left off last week in Denver, CFR today convened a panel on foreign policy on the sidelines of the GOP convention in Minneapolis that reinforced the difficulties facing a new administration. Here’s a brief look at the discussion on some of the vexing issues:
–Russia. CFR President Richard N. Haass said Russia’s new assertiveness in its neighborhood could be one of the dominant strategic issues facing a new administration along with Iran and Pakistan. Panelist Kim Holmes, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s institute for international studies, called Russia’s invasion of Georgia a “watershed event” that looks to be a “revival of some of Russia’s 19th-century views of its power and interests in the region on its borders.” Holmes advised in the short term approving NATO membership for Georgia and bolstering the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili.
–Energy. CFR Senior Fellow Michael Levi called the notion of “energy independence” for the United States impossible. But he said the country can take a number of steps to lessen huge dependence on oil from unsavory resource-rich regimes. The collection of policy steps could include gas taxes and boosted support for research and development on alternative fuels and energy sources. Significant, says Levi, is a more “substantial role for government than we have been comfortable with.”
– Immigration. CFR Senior Fellow Edward Alden said the aim is to preserve the economic boost traditionally provided by an open U.S. immigration system while shoring up the problems that have allowed millions of illegal immigrants into the country, posing a security and humanitarian problem. “It would be impossible to secure the U.S. border with Mexico without comprehensive immigration reform,” says Alden but added it is not a priority for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), and will pose political difficulties for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).
–Trade and globalization. CFR Senior Fellow Benn Steil raised concern about the rise of enormous sovereign wealth funds internationally and the prospect of them being used for politically strategic purposes. “We’re seeing a form of cross-border nationalization of businesses,” he said. Steil added that another concern is the prospect of countries like China, which hold large reserves of the U.S. dollar, looking for ways to diversify those reserves with strong currencies like the euro, a development that could pose challenges to Washington currency policies down the road.
Meanwhile, the U.S. public’s appetite for free trade appears to be ebbing, which Americans tend to equate with wage stagnation, says Alden. “We need to look at ways of distributing gains of trade more widely. Until we do so, we’re going to lack consensus on trade policy.”
Posted in Climate Change, Energy Policy, General Election, Homeland Security, Immigration, RNC, Russia | 0 Comments »
Posted on Thursday, August 28th, 2008 by Joanna Klonsky
Republicans released a draft of their party’s 2008 platform (WashPost) ahead of next week’s Republican National Convention in Minnesota, according to several news reports. The Washington Post says the draft breaks with Sen. John McCain’s proposed policies in several areas.
–The draft includes a section on “addressing climate change responsibly,” marking the first time the Republican platform has contained an acknowledgment that human activity may contribute to climate change. “The same human activity that has brought freedom and opportunity to billions has also increased the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Increased atmospheric carbon has a warming effect on the earth,” the draft says.
–The document does not mention a policy of capping carbon emissions, like the one McCain advocates. It also warns against “doomsday climate change scenarios peddled by aficionados of centralized command-and-control government.”
–Bloomberg reports that on immigration, the platform says the Party opposes any move to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants. “The rule of law suffers if government policies encourage or reward illegal activity,” it says.
Posted in Climate Change, General Election, Immigration | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 by Michael Moran
DENVER — One of the (few) nice things about being housed 15 miles from the site of the actual convention – yes, hotel rooms downtown were tough to come by even for CFR – is the serendipitous conversations you find yourself having in the Marriott breakfast nook, in the taxi queue. In this case, as I stepped into my rental car to head for the Pepsi Center, a nattily dressed fellow tapped me on the shoulder and said, “Any chance I can bum a ride?” He turned out to be Peter A. Brown, chief pollster for the respected Quinnipiac University Poll, and I made sure he paid for his 20-minute ride downtown by peppering him about the relative position of foreign policy issues in the collective mind of the electorate. Brown is known in his trade as a man who knows as much as anyone about the attitudes of the electorate in a series of key “swing” states. This time around, he has focused much of his attention on Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, three states with a history of splitting their votes between Republicans and Democrats and deciding elections. Interestingly, in this cycle, he says, international issues – particularly if “free trade” and “immigration” can be included–are playing relatively high in all three. Generally, all three include large numbers of centrist voters often characterized as “Reagan Democrats,” people Brown sees as naturally attracted to Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) maverick reputation, but also comfortable with the economic populism espoused at times by Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D-NY) campaign, and with less fervor to date, by Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL). “Going protectionist could present great opportunities to Obama,” Brown says. Not only will it shore up his support among Hillary Clinton voters who might be giving McCain a hard look; It also puts the McCain camp in a difficult position in a bad economy when the emotional arguments against free trade are finding traction in the middle and working classes.On the other hand, Brown sees the return of Russian assertiveness in the Caucasus as an issue which “has done a great favor for McCain.” The thinking among political professionals, he says, is that instability of any kind generally will favor the Arizona Republican, with his long record on national security issues. “The exception in Iraq, where relative calm makes it a more difficult issue for the Democrats to highlight,” he says. “But don’t get me wrong, the Iraq war, even with the recent changes there, remains very unpopular.”
Other issues, too, will make their mark. In Florida, of course, there’s a determination to see that the long trade embargo imposed in the early 1960s on Fidel Castro’s Cuba remain in place, though researchers have shown evidence of a softening among South Florida’s Cuban-Americans. Border states in the southwest may still force a real debate – absent so far – on immigration policy.
Posted in General Election, Immigration, Iraq, Russia, Trade, Uncategorized | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 by campaign2008
Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) and Michelle Obama, the wife of the presumptive Democratic nominee, were featured speakers (WashPost) on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention, where the party will seek to rally around a common foreign policy vision.
ECONOMY: The Wall Street Journal looks at possible effects of economic instability on Sen. Barack Obama’s policy plans. In particular, it examines the pushback he would face from the business community on expected climate change plans.
IMMIGRATION: The Dallas Morning News reports that some immigration rights activists are content with the presidential candidates’ lack of attention to the issue on the campaign trail.
Posted in Economy, General Election, Immigration, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 by campaign2008
On the Today show Wednesday morning, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) said the United States should respond to Iranian missile tests with aggressive diplomacy.
IMMIGRATION: Both presidential candidates spoke before the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) national conference on Tuesday. Obama promised to make comprehensive immigration reform a “top priority” in his first year as president. “We have to finally bring undocumented immigrants out of the shadows,” he said. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) discussed his economic and energy policy plans and pledged to continue to fight for immigration reform.
SERBIA: In a statement on Tuesday, Obama congratulated Serbian leaders for the formation of a new government. Obama encouraged the Belgrade regime to foster “positive and responsible relationships” with its neighbors, including Kosovo.
IRAQ: The Washington Post looks at the evolution of the candidates’ positions on Iraq.
Posted in General Election, Immigration, Iraq, Morning Update | 0 Comments »
