After meeting with his top economic advisers on Tuesday, President-elect Barack Obama warned of the potential of “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come” (NYT). He promised to enforce tighter fiscal discipline in his government.
BIDEN: Vice President-elect Joe Biden will visit Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan during his trip beginning at the end of the week, he told reporters Tuesday (Politico).
Journalist and author Tariq Ali warned that U.S. military action in Pakistan and escalation of the war in Afghanistan would create widespread instability in the region. Speaking Tuesday in a public discussion with Chicago Council on Global Affairs president Marshall Bouton. Ali said he was “extremely disturbed” by President-elect Barack Obama’s assertion during the presidential campaign that he would be willing to strike al-Qaeda targets inside of Pakistan with actionable intelligence if the Pakistani government was unwilling or unable to do so.
Ali, a native of the Pakistani city of Lahore, disputed what he called “the most common view on Pakistan in much of the Western world,” that Pakistan is “a nuclear state and a group of bearded jihadi terrorists might be on the verge of capturing this nuclear facility.” Rather, Ali insisted, jihadi groups in Pakistan represent a “tiny minority of the population as a whole,” and said it is “virtually impossible” that these groups would be able to capture the nuclear facility.
Ali urged Western leaders to develop a “serious exit strategy” for the war in Afghanistan, and questioned the premise of the war’s start. The al-Qaeda group responsible for the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 disappeared in the weeks before the war’s beginning, he said. “They had no particular links to Afghanistan as such they could function from everywhere,” Ali said, noting that no Afghan or Pakistani citizens were implicated in the attacks.
For more analysis and research about Pakistan and U.S. policy, see this CFR.org Issue Guide.
With the U.S. presidential campaign headed into its final weekend, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) made final pushes for votes, and analysts began looking ahead to the transition of administrations that will follow the November 4 vote. The Financial Times reports Obama’s campaign is sticking largely to its economic message as it enters the final few days of campaigning. The Los Angeles Times looks at McCain’s final days of campaigning in potential swing states Ohio and Florida, and says both candidates have sought to highlight differences in their economic plans.
A new CFR.org Daily Analysis looks at how foreign policy issues have played out over the course of the campaign, dominated in its later stages by the financial crisis. The article says despite the recent focus on economic concerns, questions of national security and U.S. global influence stayed in focus throughout the process. In a Newsweek cover story, CFR President Richard Haass presents a foreign policy plan for the next U.S. president.
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow he plans to try to “facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and resolve the Kashmir crisis.” Obama also discussed his plan to send more troops to Afghanistan and said he will provide alternatives to farmers in the poppy trade there.
NATIONAL SECURITY: Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), Sen. John McCain’s runningmate, spoke broadly (CNN) about national security Thursday after meeting with a group of McCain campaign national security advisers. “It used to be we could place domestic and foreign concerns in more or less distinct categories — and choose a president according to which seemed the greater priority at the time. But the world has so drastically changed and those days are gone,” she said. “Even if a most immediate concern is economic, our recovery will still depend on leadership that can protect and advance our security and our vital interests in the world.”
Both presidential candidates said Sunday they will likely support the proposed $700 billion federal financial bailout deal. On Face the Nation Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) repeated his call (PDF) to “update our 20th century regulatory framework for a 21st century global financial system.”
Asked on ABC’s This Week whether the proposal satisfied his principles, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) replied, “Yes, protect the taxpayer, make sure that there isn’t excessive compensation for CEOs, a oversight body, not leaving all the decisions in the hands of one individual.”
DEBATE: The New York Times pointed out a “role reversal” among the presidential candidates policy toward Pakistan in Friday’s debate.
The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder examines the candidates’ argument about negotiating with Iran.
Both presidential candidates spoke at the Clinton Global Initiative conference on Thursday. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) stressed the need to limit carbon emissions. “To make the great turn away from carbon-emitting fuels, we will need all the inventive genius of which America is capable,” he said. “We will need as well an economy strong enough to support our nation’s great shift toward clean energy.”
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050. He also emphasized the security threats posed by spreading poverty, saying it “leads to pockets of instability that provide fertile breeding grounds for threats like terror and the smuggling of deadly weapons that cannot be contained by the drawing of a border or the distance of an ocean.”
PALIN: In an interview with CBS Evening News on Thursday, McCain’s runningmate, Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), said she does not believe Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is protecting al-Qaeda. She added she believes the Pakistani people “want democratic values to be allowed in their country, also. They understand the dangers of terrorists having a stronghold in regions of their country.”
A new public opinion study (PDF) from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs polls Americans on their views of foreign policy issues. The poll, which surveyed more than 1,500 respondents during July, shows “the American public is concerned about the country’s standing in the world and favors major changes in U.S. foreign policy,” according to the Chicago Council.
Among the study’s findings:
Both presidential candidates responded to the bombing of a Marriott hotel in Pakistan. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) said the attack should serve as a reminder that the United States should “forge a deep and lasting partnership with Pakistan, and with nations around the world, to root out and destroy al-Qaeda and its affiliates.”
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said the United States should work with the Pakistani government to “find those responsible, hold them accountable, and diminish their ability to threaten us and our allies in the future.”
PALIN: McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), will meet (ChiTrib) with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe on Tuesday on the sidelines of the opening of the annual UN General Assembly debate.
MINNEAPOLIS — It is no stretch to say the region ranging from North Africa to Pakistan, known as the “Greater Middle East,” poses the biggest policy challenges for the next U.S. presidential administration. But solutions to the region’s myriad conflicts defy any quick accounting. A panel of top experts at a meeting convened this morning by CFR on the sidelines of the GOP presidential convention outlined the following most pressing issues:
– Pakistan. What CFR President Richard N. Haass, the panel moderator, called potentially “the greatest national security challenge for the next administration” is coping with a troubled civilian government and a military that appears increasingly resistant to cooperating with U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Vali Nasr said the Pakistani military has never fully supported U.S. efforts to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan and should not be considered a reliable ally by an incoming U.S. administration.
Nasr also warned of Taliban preparations for a military surge against Afghan and U.S.-led allied forces by early next spring that may include an attempt to seize Kabul. Meghan O’Sullivan, a former Bush administration deputy national security adviser for Afghanistan and Iraq, said the United States will never be able to bring enough troops to pacify Afghanistan. She suggested looking at new ways of engaging Afghan tribal forces to help secure the country and counter insurgents.
– Iraq. O’Sullivan stressed the importance of continuing what she called a “virtuous cycle” that has calmed the country over the past 18 months. She credited the U.S. military surge strategy, the Sunni “Awakening” movement, and the stand down of a major Shia militia for sustaining progress and added “You don’t want to change too many variables in that cycle at once.”
– Iran. Nasr said Iranian officials want to steer the United States toward engagement and away from confrontation but are not willing to grant concessions on their nuclear program prior to full-fledged talks with the United States.
The panel noted Israeli officials continue to threaten military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites – believed to be cover for nuclear weapons research – in the absence of Iran suspending its uranium enrichment program. “I take the Israeli government at its word that an Iran weaponized or near weaponized would constitute an existential threat,” said Haass. “Over the next couple of years if Iran continues to advance the way it was advancing, there is a significant chance of [an Israeli strike] happening.”
– Israeli-Palestinian talks. Michael Barnett of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs likened the peace talks to “something akin to a suicide watch.” But Barnett was more optimistic about the prospects of Syrian-Israeli peace talks, noting Syrian officials have “decoupled” those talks from the Palestinian issue. He also cited the positive role of Turkey as a peace broker.
– Democratization. CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook said aside from an initial boost to civil society efforts provided by the Bush administration’s pro-democracy efforts, authoritarian regimes such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have proven they are “more supple, flexible, and have the capacity to repress political challenges.”
Both presidential candidates welcomed the news that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf resigned on Monday. Here are key quotes from the candidates’ statements on the topic:
Obama: “A year ago, I advocated that the U.S. move from a ‘Musharraf policy’ to a ‘Pakistan policy.’ I hope all of Pakistan’s friends will now seize the opportunity created by Musharraf’s exit to focus on the urgent issues of today: confronting the threat of extremist violence, dealing with food and energy shortages, and helping the Pakistani people build a stable, secure, democratic future.”
McCain: “The situation in Pakistan’s frontier regions requires immediate and continued attention, and I hope that the elections for President Musharraf’s successor will serve to reconcile the Pakistani people behind a leader who can solidify their government internally. It is critical that the United States continue to work in partnership with the Pakistani people and their democratically elected government to tackle the many challenges we both face.”
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) both had discussions Tuesday with the visiting Pakistani prime minister. Obama said he had a “productive and wide-ranging discussion,” in which he and Gilani discussed “how to more effectively deal with the central front in the war on terrorism—the threat from al-Qaeda and the Taliban originating from the Pakistani tribal areas—which threatens the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.”
Gilani and McCain had a twenty-minute phone conversation (Pakistan Daily Mail) in which Gilani reportedly stressed the importance of a long-term strategic relationship between the United States and Pakistan.
NASA: In a statement on the fiftieth anniversary of NASA, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said he would “make sure that the NASA constellation program has the resources it needs so that we can begin a new era of human space exploration.”
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
