Council on Foreign Relations

It may not be a new Cold War but a definite chill has set in between the West and Russia following Russia’s military occupation of Georgia and recognition of its two breakaway provinces. The Russia-Georgia conflict has made its way into the U.S. presidential race as well. Seeking to chart a way forward, the Economist has kicked off an important two-week debate in response to the proposition: “The West must be bolder in its response to a newly assertive Russia.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter, who heads Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson school, argues in favor of bolder action: In her opening post, she writes:

“As popular as Vladimir Putin and his party are, they are delivering a heady nationalist brew rather than actually providing badly needed economic and social benefits to the population at large. It is that domestic political equation that the West must counterbalance by making clear that the diplomatic, political and economic costs of external adventures outweigh the domestic benefits.”

But the Carnegie Endowment’s Dmitri V. Trenin counters that under Putin, Russians are more affluent than ever and “capitalism is transforming Russian society on a daily basis.” He offers the following advice in his opening post:

“Rather than thinking about bold steps which would fuel nascent confrontation it makes more sense to subject old stereotypes to a reality check, and figure out whither Russia is heading, and what it actually wants. And then perhaps use the present crisis to structure a security relationship in Europe which would include Russia and reassure its wary neighbors. That, incidentally, may come in handy as other crises may jolt the world: a politico-nuclear meltdown in Pakistan, a Taliban comeback in Afghanistan, Iran’s nuclear weapons progress, North Korea’s proliferation regression and the like.”  

CFR.org’s Joanna Klonsky spoke with young Republicans (40 and under) who attended their party’s presidential nominating convention last week in Minnesota’s Twin Cities. Here are a sampling of some foreign policy views and priorities: 

David Capiello, 40, is a Lebanese-American state senator from the 24^th district of Connecticut.

The biggest concern is the war on terror. But it’s how we deal with the war on terror. It’s how we are able to, in some cases, stand firm with certain foreign nations and leaders who seem to be unwilling to negotiate with us, but also to have the flexibility to know when to step up and to negotiate. I look at Ronald Reagan, one of my political heroes, who knew when it was the right time to negotiate with the former Soviet Union and Mikhail Gorbachev, to try and make things happen, to break down those barriers, those walls. I think it’s important for our president and for our Congress to know when the time is right to step up and to negotiate.

I think Iran is one of the most pressing foreign relations issues this country is dealing with. It’s important for America to be able to stand its ground, but also try to work with our allies when it comes to sanctions in dealing with Iran. Iran used to be a very Western nation. I think there are some young people that probably want that to happen again. But we need a president and a Congress that is going to understand that, and understands how to deal with a leader like [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad.

Attorney Steve Dillard, 38, is a delegate from Macon Georgia.

I’m very concerned about the genocide that’s taking place in Darfur. I care very much about sex trafficking that’s going on and how that’s not only impacting our world culture, but also American culture, because a lot of these women are being brought over to the United States and are being abused. They’re basically slaves. I think that’s very troubling. And I think a lot of social conservatives are becoming much more concerned about things that are going on on the world stage that have to do beyond just abortion, although that’s an extremely important issue for me and other social conservatives.

Obviously a lot of our foreign policy has been geared toward trying to establish democracy in Iraq. You have Turkey, which is kind of a quasi-democracy, I guess. And so the hope is that democracy will take hold and there’s a big debate about how effective that is, whether this is simply Wilsonian foreign policy basically revisited, whether it’s imperialist or not. There are a whole lot of questions. My view is that as a superpower, with great prosperity comes great responsibility. I understand we have to be concerned about our national interest, but to me, our national interests include protecting the most vulnerable members of our international society, our world. To me, that’s why what’s going on in Darfur is so tragic. There really has been very little done. And I blame both the Clinton administration and the Bush administration for that. I don’t think nearly enough has been done. 

Carlos Obando, 28, is a Colombian-American delegate from Texas. He recently ran unsuccessfully for the Texas House of Representatives seat for District 134.

When it comes to commerce and trade, I think we need to start opening up our markets a little bit more. I know Colombia and the United States are talking about getting a free trade agreement right now, and I think it should go through. That’s only going to help us in combating some of the tension that’s occurring right now in South America with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Right now we’re dependent on a lot of their oil. We’ve got enough resources here in this country to drill and sustain ourselves in the future for at least the next 200 years. I think we need to look into that a little bit more. I think our party will do that.

More business is coming out of Brazil, more business is coming out of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and I think that in the long run, that is something that needs to be focused on. The more we go without doing business and commerce with Latin America, especially South America, the more likely someone else is going to come in and do it for us.  Right now, our dependence on foreign oil and energy is definitely a priority in this campaign as well as the war in Iraq, but soon thereafter I really would like to hear a little bit more about our trade and our commerce with Latin America.  

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), in his speech accepting his party’s nomination to run for president, seized on a theme of “change” and vowed to overhaul aspects of the Republican Party’s platform under the Bush administration. McCain highlighted times at which he has broken from his party’s policy line, arguing that such independence makes him more fit to lead the United States than his opponent, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL).

In terms of foreign policy, McCain credited “the leadership of a brilliant general, David Petraeus,” for improving the security situation in Iraq, and discussed his own efforts to encourage the U.S. surge strategy, saying he was willing to make an unpopular decision for the good of the war effort. McCain focused significant attention on economic concerns, saying the best way to improve the competitiveness of U.S. corporations internationally is through tax cuts that enable them to operate more efficiently. He also said he intends to shift U.S. jobs to “industries that will be the engine of our future prosperity,” rather than attempting to prop up industries that aren’t competitive internationally.

The New York Times reports the Republican convention revealed a “fierce struggle” for the “foreign policy heart of John McCain” within the Republican Party. McCain’s speech, the Times says, offered “few hints” whether he would follow a “confrontational, go-it-alone approach” toward the world, or whether he would make steps to engage countries the Bush administration has sought to isolate. McCain did make reference to the Russia-Georgia conflict in his speech, saying both that he would attempt to establish good relations with Russia to avoid a “return of the Cold War,” but also more forcefully that the United States “can’t turn a blind eye to aggression and international lawlessness that threatens the peace and stability of the world.”

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports McCain’s running-mate, first-term Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, has been given a crash course on foreign policy since her nomination.

Background:

- This candidate profile outlines McCain’s statements on an array of foreign policy issues. This one looks at Barack Obama’s.

- A new entry on CFR.org’s Campaign 2008 blog looks at hot debate in Minneapolis over Russia, Georgia, and the future of NATO.

MINNEAPOLIS — U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is in Georgia reaffirming U.S ties to its ally in the face of ongoing Russian threats. Meanwhile, on the sidelines of the GOP presidential convention in Minnesota, some analysts have registered concern over how the United States manages relationships with both countries.

At a CFR panel on democracy promotion this morning, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was critical of the U.S. push for a NATO membership path for Georgia. He said that introduced a provocative outside military element to a region already roiling with unresolved separatist issues. “We should learn that security is not always military arrangements, that there are some security elements that are better protected by a combination of political and tacit military arrangements,” said Kissinger, an architect of President Richard M. Nixon’s détente policy with the Soviet Union in the 1970s.

CFR President Richard N. Haass, said it would be unhelpful for both Russian and U.S. interests if Russia was ousted from the G8 or denied entry to the World Trade Organization, as some in the West have called for in response to the Kremlin’s moves in Georgia. Haass referred to the sharp decline in foreign investment in Russia since last month, noting that the principle penalty Russia has faced so far for its actions has come as a result of its financial integration in the world. “We want to keep them inside [global institutions] because with them on the inside they have a greater stake in normal international relations [and] don’t feel international relations is something being done to them,” Haass said.

But Kenneth Wollack, president of the National Democratic Institute, a U.S.-funded organization that has promoted democratic institutions in Georgia, noted Russia has played an unhelpful role in the international bodies it currently belongs to. He also disputed Russian charges that U.S.-backed organizations contributed to the downfall of the previous Georgian government headed by President Eduard Shevardnadze. He said the fall of Shevardnadze government in the 2003 Rose Revolution followed a popular outpouring of protest in response to efforts to seat an illegitimate parliament. “In Georgia you do have a population that overwhelmingly wants to join European institutions,” Wollack told the panel.

The Republican National Convention continued on Wednesday in St. Paul, with party leaders including former presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney addressing the crowd.

Vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AL) also spoke, giving voters a brief glimpse of her foreign policy views. Palin said domestic oil drilling would allow the United States to become less dependent on Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. She also implied that she opposes meeting with “terrorist states” without preconditions.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will speak to the convention Thursday.

CFR is cohosting a foreign policy symposium in Minneapolis. To view a live webcast of the program, click here.

GEORGIA: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) welcomed the Bush administration’s announcement of a $1 billion financial assistance package for Georgia on Wednesday. “The United States and our allies must stand firm in supporting Georgia’s economic and political stability, and opposing Russia’s efforts to undermine Georgia’s democratically-elected government,” Obama said in a statement.

MINNEAPOLIS — Energy is shaping up as one of the main foreign policy wedge issues between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Trade could be another. Three top aides to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the presumptive Republican nominee, emphasized the importance of a robust free trade policy in a panel discussion today at the Hubert Humphrey Institute here on foreign policy priorities for the next president.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), former U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman, and veteran diplomat Richard Williamson, the country’s special envoy on the Darfur question, all stressed the role of trade in projecting soft power and strengthening U.S. alliances.

Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and many of his party’s lawmakers have been critical of the Bush administration’s free trade agenda for lacking protections for Americans in industries buffeted by trade. Obama opposes the pending deal with Colombia because of what he says is a lack of labor protections for Colombian workers, and criticizes the pending deal with South Korea because of what he says are imbalances that fail to provide reciprocal market access in South Korea.

Lieberman said shifts in the Democratic Party on trade issues contributed to his move away from the party and indicated trade could be one of the defining issues of the campaign.

Portman praised an open trade agenda as a tool for making countries better global stakeholders, adding “countries that trade together don’t fight.” He called trade “probably the single best weapon we have to reduce poverty” and said for the United States, healthy trade exports have prevented the country from slipping into a recession.

 Williamson faulted China and India for the recent failures of the Doha round global trade talks but said they remain crucial as emerging powers for triggering expanded international trade deals. “Trade is the canary in the mine shaft that should alert us of need to engage New Delhi and Beijing differently [to help advance U.S. interests globally],” said Williamson.  

MINNEAPOLIS — Rep. Ray Lahood (R-IL) is one of the country’s most prominent Arab-American lawmakers and is ranking Republican on the Select Intelligence Oversight Panel. Now preparing to step down after 14 years in Congress, Lahood spoke with CFR.org on the sidelines of the GOP convention about some foreign policy developments and priorities. Here are excerpts:

On 9/11: “It created a whole new paradigm of thinking and a whole new way of scholars thinking about it, and certainly a whole new way of Congress thinking about everything–whether its food safety, water safety, whether its terrorism, whether its laws to increase FBI agents and the whole issue of the CIA and their involvement. It changed everyone’s thinking. It was so dramatic that I think in our haste to enact legislation we may have made some mistakes along the way, although in the reenactment of the Patriot Act we tried to correct some of those.”

On national security challenges: “I think whoever gets elected we’re going to have far less involvement in Iraq and a lot more involvement in Afghanistan. I also believe that whoever’s elected needs to continue to pay attention to keeping America safe. I think the American people over the time since 9/11 have been a little complacent about the fact that our country has been safe. People have sort of forgotten that the further away we get from 9/11, the further away we get from any attack on the United States, I think people are complacent. Whoever is elected needs to figure out a game plan for keeping America safe, whether that means continued vigilance from the FBI, continued vigilance from the CIA and other intelligence-gathering capability to watch our borders, whatever it takes, but I think that’s where you’ll see the focus. [The priorities are] Afghanistan, Pakistan, al-Qaeda, bin Laden, and keeping America safe, homeland security.”

On energy security: “I think the American people are going to require Congress in a bipartisan way to solve this energy thing and it’s not just going to be drilling. It’s going to be getting the car manufacturers to make higher mileage cars, and to think outside of the box about the kind of cars we drive today and the kind of trucks we drive today. It’s solar, it’s nuclear, it’s wind, it’s a combination of all kinds of things that in a comprehensive way really looks at this problem that we have and right now the American people are telling every member of Congress ‘you all need to do something to help us.’ Drilling is just one aspect of it. We need a real comprehensive long-term approach to our energy. We’re hooked on oil and almost all of our oil comes from somewhere else.”

MINNEAPOLIS — It is no stretch to say the region ranging from North Africa to Pakistan, known as the “Greater Middle East,” poses the biggest policy challenges for the next U.S. presidential administration. But solutions to the region’s myriad conflicts defy any quick accounting. A panel of top experts at a meeting convened this morning by CFR on the sidelines of the GOP presidential convention outlined the following most pressing issues:

– Pakistan. What CFR President Richard N. Haass, the panel moderator, called potentially “the greatest national security challenge for the next administration” is coping with a troubled civilian government and a military that appears increasingly resistant to cooperating with U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Vali Nasr said the Pakistani military has never fully supported U.S. efforts to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan and should not be considered a reliable ally by an incoming U.S. administration.

Nasr also warned of Taliban preparations for a military surge against Afghan and U.S.-led allied forces by early next spring that may include an attempt to seize Kabul. Meghan O’Sullivan, a former Bush administration deputy national security adviser for Afghanistan and Iraq, said the United States will never be able to bring enough troops to pacify Afghanistan. She suggested looking at new ways of engaging Afghan tribal forces to help secure the country and counter insurgents.

– Iraq. O’Sullivan stressed the importance of continuing what she called a “virtuous cycle” that has calmed the country over the past 18 months. She credited the U.S. military surge strategy, the Sunni “Awakening” movement, and the stand down of a major Shia militia for sustaining progress and added “You don’t want to change too many variables in that cycle at once.”

– Iran. Nasr said Iranian officials want to steer the United States toward engagement and away from confrontation but are not willing to grant concessions on their nuclear program prior to full-fledged talks with the United States.

The panel noted Israeli officials continue to threaten military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites – believed to be cover for nuclear weapons research – in the absence of Iran suspending its uranium enrichment program. “I take the Israeli government at its word that an Iran weaponized or near weaponized would constitute an existential threat,” said Haass. “Over the next couple of years if Iran continues to advance the way it was advancing, there is a significant chance of [an Israeli strike] happening.”

– Israeli-Palestinian talks. Michael Barnett of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs likened the peace talks to “something akin to a suicide watch.” But Barnett was more optimistic about the prospects of Syrian-Israeli peace talks, noting Syrian officials have “decoupled” those talks from the Palestinian issue. He also cited the positive role of Turkey as a peace broker.

– Democratization. CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook said aside from an initial boost to civil society efforts provided by the Bush administration’s pro-democracy efforts, authoritarian regimes such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have proven they are “more supple, flexible, and have the capacity to repress political challenges.”

Picking up where it left off last week in Denver, CFR today convened a panel on foreign policy on the sidelines of the GOP convention in Minneapolis that reinforced the difficulties facing a new administration. Here’s a brief look at the discussion on some of the vexing issues:

–Russia. CFR President Richard N. Haass said Russia’s new assertiveness in its neighborhood could be one of the dominant strategic issues facing a new administration along with Iran and Pakistan. Panelist Kim Holmes, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s institute for international studies, called Russia’s invasion of Georgia a “watershed event” that looks to be a “revival of some of Russia’s 19th-century views of its power and interests in the region on its borders.” Holmes advised in the short term approving NATO membership for Georgia and bolstering the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili.

–Energy. CFR Senior Fellow Michael Levi called the notion of “energy independence” for the United States impossible. But he said the country can take a number of steps to lessen huge dependence on oil from unsavory resource-rich regimes. The collection of policy steps could include gas taxes and boosted support for research and development on alternative fuels and energy sources. Significant, says Levi, is a more “substantial role for government than we have been comfortable with.”

– Immigration. CFR Senior Fellow Edward Alden said the aim is to preserve the economic boost traditionally provided by an open U.S. immigration system while shoring up the problems that have allowed millions of illegal immigrants into the country, posing a security and humanitarian problem. “It would be impossible to secure the U.S. border with Mexico without comprehensive immigration reform,” says Alden but added it is not a priority for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), and will pose political difficulties for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

–Trade and globalization. CFR Senior Fellow Benn Steil raised concern about the rise of enormous sovereign wealth funds internationally and the prospect of them being used for politically strategic purposes. “We’re seeing a form of cross-border nationalization of businesses,” he said. Steil added that another concern is the prospect of countries like China, which hold large reserves of the U.S. dollar, looking for ways to diversify those reserves with strong currencies like the euro, a development that could pose challenges to Washington currency policies down the road.

Meanwhile, the U.S. public’s appetite for free trade appears to be ebbing, which Americans tend to equate with wage stagnation, says Alden. “We need to look at ways of distributing gains of trade more widely. Until we do so, we’re going to lack consensus on trade policy.”

The Republican Party kicked off a pared-down version (AP) of its national convention on Monday in Minnesota. President Bush, who had been scheduled to speak to the convention, instead traveled to Texas to be briefed on Hurricane Gustav’s management.
In Ohio, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) packed supplies for hurricane victims (NYT). Both the Obama and McCain campaigns urged supporters to donate to relief efforts.

A CFR.org Issue Tracker details the candidates’ positions on homeland security policy.

CFR will cohost a foreign policy symposium all week in Minneapolis. To view a live webcast of the program, click here.

EU: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) on Monday praised the European Union’s announcement following an emergency summit that Georgia’s “territorial integrity must be respected,” and that Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be rejected.