John Campbell

Africa in Transition

Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea Greater than in the Horn of Africa

by John Campbell Wednesday, June 19, 2013
An Ivory Coast gendarmerie boat is seen at the port of Abidjan, April 23, 2013. (Thierry Gouegnon/Courtesy Reuters) An Ivory Coast gendarmerie boat is seen at the port of Abidjan, April 23, 2013. (Thierry Gouegnon/Courtesy Reuters)

It is official. There is more piracy in the Gulf of Guinea now than off the coast of Somalia. The International Maritime Bureau (IMB), Oceans Beyond Piracy (OBP), and the Maritime Piracy Humanitarian Response Programme (MPHRP) have published an intriguing report: The Human Cost of Maritime Piracy 2012. It is a fascinating read. It states that 966 sailors were attacked in the Gulf of Guinea and adjoining water in 2012, while 851 were victims of pirate attacks off the Somali coast over the same period. The report analyzes the differences in piracy between the two areas. In West Africa, it mostly takes place in national territorial waters, especially off of Nigeria, rather than in international waters. Vessels awaiting entry into port and those transferring oil from one vessel to another are particularly vulnerable. Rather than kidnapping for ransom as Somali pirates do, West African pirates are after oil cargoes or, in some cases, the personal property to be found on the vessels. Read more »

Zimbabwe Elections May Be Delayed – For Two Weeks

by John Campbell Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Zimbabwe Prime Minister and leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai gestures during a news conference in Harare, June 13, 2013. (Philimon Bulawayo/Courtesy Reuters) Zimbabwe Prime Minister and leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai gestures during a news conference in Harare, June 13, 2013. (Philimon Bulawayo/Courtesy Reuters)

The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) special summit on the Zimbabwe elections went ahead on June 15 in Maputo, Mozambique, despite press reports that Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe had sought its postponement. Mugabe had unilaterally proclaimed that elections would go ahead on July 31, as mandated by the Zimbabwean constitutional court. The opposition parties, led by Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T, strongly objected to elections that soon because a package of reforms designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 electoral violence has not been legislated or implemented. SADC, led by South Africa’s president Jacob Zuma, has called for such a Zimbabwe “road map” that would promote free and fair elections. Read more »

Gay Marriage and Goodluck Jonathan’s Tricky Position

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Monday, June 17, 2013
President Goodluck Jonathan presents his administration's midterm report during Democracy Day in Abuja May 29, 2013. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) President Goodluck Jonathan presents his administration's midterm report during Democracy Day in Abuja May 29, 2013. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Dominic Bocci, assistant director at the Council on Foreign Relations’ David Rockefeller Studies Program.

The passage of the Same-Sex Marriage Prohibition Bill on May 31, 2013, by the Nigerian House of Representatives places President Goodluck Jonathan in a tricky position. Not signing the bill risks alienating his own government and signaling to the general public that he does not support one of the few issues that brings the majority of Nigerians together. Alternatively, signing such legislation may cost the country substantial sums of international aid and investment. Either way, gay marriage—an otherwise unlikely political issue—may significantly influence the Nigerian political debate leading up to the 2015 national elections. Read more »

Nuhu Ribadu and Political Action in Nigeria

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Friday, June 14, 2013
Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) presidential candidate and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu speaks during the flag-off of the ACN governorship campaign in Lagos March 5, 2011. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters) Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) presidential candidate and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu speaks during the flag-off of the ACN governorship campaign in Lagos March 5, 2011. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Charlotte Renfield-Miller; a master of arts in law and diplomacy candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy specializing in development economics and human security. She is currently completing a graduate internship with the Africa Studies program at Council on Foreign Relations. Read more »

Zimbabwe’s Upcoming Elections

by John Campbell Thursday, June 13, 2013
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe (R) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai address a media conference at State House in the capital Harare January 17, 2013. (Philimon Bulawayo/Courtesy Reuters) Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe (R) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai address a media conference at State House in the capital Harare January 17, 2013. (Philimon Bulawayo/Courtesy Reuters)

President Robert Mugabe on June 13, set July 31 as Zimbabwe’s election day. The chief opposition leader and current prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, flatly rejected the date and said he would challenge it in the courts. Earlier in the month the Zimbabwe constitutional court ruled that elections must be held by July 31 under the provisions of the new constitution. Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has postponed a planned summit in Maputo to consider a Zimbabwe road map for free and fair elections at Mugabe’s request. According to South African media, that meeting could be rescheduled for as early as June 18. Read more »

Mali’s Elections and the Issues of Kidal

by John Campbell Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Soldiers from the Tuareg rebel group MNLA sit in a pickup truck in the northeastern town of Kidal February 4, 2013. (Cheick Diouara/Courtesy Reuters) Soldiers from the Tuareg rebel group MNLA sit in a pickup truck in the northeastern town of Kidal February 4, 2013. (Cheick Diouara/Courtesy Reuters)

France and the United States are leading the push for elections to proceed on schedule in Mali in late July. The urgency reflects the view that elections are crucial to ending the rift in Bamako and to restoring the legitimacy of the Malian government, which was tarnished by a military coup and a subsequent feckless interim government. But, for elections to have meaning, they must take place throughout Mali. Read more »

Mapping Mogadishu and the Problem of Warlord Politicians

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Tuesday, June 11, 2013
People stand in front of a building destroyed during a fight between al Shabaab militants against African Union and Somali Government forces in Mogadishu June 26, 2012. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) People stand in front of a building destroyed during a fight between al Shabaab militants against African Union and Somali Government forces in Mogadishu June 26, 2012. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Jim Sanders, a career, now retired, West Africa watcher for various federal agencies. The views expressed below are his personal views and do not reflect those of his former employers.

Somalia is clawing its way out of twenty years of war-torn chaos. Some are proposing initiatives that use innovative technology to assist in state building and recovery, but they face a struggle against Somalia’s warlord-dominated past. Many former warlords remain in power at various levels of government and civil society. This dynamic of warlord versus technology is therefore becoming a lively discussion. Read more »

Media Reports on Security Service Violence in Northern Nigeria

by John Campbell Monday, June 10, 2013
Soldiers stand during a parade in Baga village on the outskirts of Maiduguri, in the north-eastern state of Borno May 13, 2013. (Tim Cocks/Courtesy Reuters) Soldiers stand during a parade in Baga village on the outskirts of Maiduguri, in the north-eastern state of Borno May 13, 2013. (Tim Cocks/Courtesy Reuters)

Outside observers have largely been dependent on Nigerian military statements for news about the operation of the state of emergency and Abuja’s struggle with the Islamist insurgencies lumped under the moniker of “Boko Haram.” There is little media presence in Borno, Yobe, or Adamawa, and cell phone service was largely suspended. Predictably the military is saying that its campaign is successful and that civilian casualties are few or non-existent. Read more »

Racism in Mali and the Upcoming Elections

by John Campbell Friday, June 7, 2013
Malian soldiers sit together as they drink coffee at a checkpoint in Gao March 4, 2013. (Joe Penney/Courtesy Reuters) Malian soldiers sit together as they drink coffee at a checkpoint in Gao March 4, 2013. (Joe Penney/Courtesy Reuters)

We tend to underrate the importance of racism as a factor in the ongoing crisis in Mali. A short item from Radio France Internationale–English is a good reminder.

It reports a statement by a spokesman for the French foreign ministry calling for the release of those arrested “because of the color of their skin” in the Kidal area. Read more »

Secularism and Diversity in Sudan

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Thursday, June 6, 2013
Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir (2nd R) meets officials from the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) near his South Sudan counterpart Salva Kiir (C) upon his arrival at the Juba Airport in South Sudan April 12, 2013. (Andreea Campeanu/Courtesy Reuters) Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir (2nd R) meets officials from the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) near his South Sudan counterpart Salva Kiir (C) upon his arrival at the Juba Airport in South Sudan April 12, 2013. (Andreea Campeanu/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Tiffany Lynch, a senior policy analyst at the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. The views expressed are her own and may or may not reflect the views of the Commission.  Read more »