Here’s an excerpt:
What you’ve got right now is a convergence of stresses. You’ve got the Delta, you’ve got Boko Haram and similar groups in the north, and you have an apparent division amongst the elites along north-south lines.
That is new. There is a footnote I would add to this -once Nigeria did fall off the cliff. That was the civil war of 1967 to 1970, so it has happened in the past.
One of the things that concerns me is that at least among some of the elites there is a sort of pride about dancing on the brink as opposed to a prudence about the need to draw back from the brink.
Read the whole thing here.