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France's President Hollande gives a speech where he declared "mission accomplished" during a ceremony to honour French troops at the Elysee Palace in Paris 21/12/2012. (Thibault Camus/Courtesy Reuters)
President Hollande said on December 21 that the French national kidnapped in northern Nigeria was the victim of an armed group that “no doubt has links with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)… who are now in Mali.” Hollande’s administration sponsored and pushed hard for the UN Security Council resolution passed unanimously on December 20 authorizing West African intervention in northern Mali.
Alas, it is credible that the gunmen who kidnapped the French expatriate and killed two Nigerian guards do have links to radical Islamist groups in Mali. Nigeria’s indigenous radical Islamic insurrection against Abuja is diffuse, or fragmenting. In some parts of Nigeria’s North, law and order has broken down almost entirely. It is plausible that some group has indeed established links with AQIM, a group that has long kidnapped Europeans in Algeria and elsewhere in the Maghreb.
The group Ansaru, which was responsible for the kidnapping of a British and Italian in Kebbi/Sokoto last year has claimed responsibility for this. Ansaru was placed on the UK Terror List on Nov 23 and was described as being “broadly aligned with AQ.” They seem to operate in NW Nigeria more than Boko Haram (Shekau’s faction at least). A news piece on Ansaru’s claim of this kidnapping on Dec 23 is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20833946. Given their statement, it seems Ansaru — if not Boko Haram as well — is working in coordination with the Mali insurgents and at the least has established links with them; Ansaru’s ideology which calls for the return of the Caliphate of Dan Fodio mirrors MOJWA’s statements as well and Ansaru’s unabbreviated name suggests an interest in “Black Africa” as opposed to Nigeria alone. It’s also troublesome that there were 30 fighters in the kidnapping raid, so it’s not just some small cell, and that it happened only 30m from Niger, suggesting a transnational element involved. Katsina is also only 500+miles from Gao, Mali. We can only hope 2013 will be less problematic than 2012 but it is hard to be optimistic at this point.