John Campbell

Africa in Transition

Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

Print Print Email Email Share Share Cite Cite
Style: MLA APA Chicago Close

loading...

Nigeria’s Ruling Political Party Splits

by John Campbell
September 3, 2013

A man walks past election campaign posters in Kano, northern Nigeria, April 1, 2011. (Joseph Penney/Courtesy Reuters) A man walks past election campaign posters in Kano, northern Nigeria, April 1, 2011. (Joseph Penney/Courtesy Reuters)

Nigeria’s ruling political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has split into two factions. According to press reports, at a special convention on August 31, seven governors and former vice president Atiku Abubakar walked out of the convention and organized their own, for the “New PDP.” The governors involved are listed here. On September 1, twenty-two out of fifty sitting PDP senators pledged their loyalty to the “New PDP.” They are listed here. The rest of the PDP governors and senators remain loyal, for the time being, to President Jonathan’s PDP faction.

The new party has a distinctly northern cast: six of the seven governors are from the north or the middle belt. Only one, Rotimi Amaechi of oil rich Rivers State, is from the south; he and President Jonathan are enemies. Based on their names, nearly all of the senators appear to be Muslim, as is former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Party officers, however, appear to come from various parts of the country.

The PDP has been the largest political party in Nigeria since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999. President Goodluck Jonathan is its leader in effect, as were his two predecessors, Olusegun Obasanjo and Umaru Yar’Adua. The PDP has usually had a lock on most of the governorships and members of the National Assembly. But, it is not a political party in the Western conventional sense. It has neither distinctive political platform nor ideology. As required by Nigerian law, it has not been based in a particular region or religion. Rather, it has been the venue of politics, where Nigeria’s competing and cooperating elites have resolved political issues. It functioned well enough when there was a broad elite political consensus.

But, that consensus broke down with the end of power alternation within the PDP between the predominately Muslim north and the predominately Christian south. The continuing failure to replace it with anything else has led to increasing tensions. There is also widespread elite dissatisfaction with President Jonathan’s administration on issues such as his inability to stamp out a jihadist insurgency in the north called “Boko Haram” or to bring rampant oil theft under control. Nigerians perceive corruption to be ubiquitous. Nigerian politics are edgy in anticipation of national elections in late 2014. While Jonathan has not said that he will run again, he is widely expected to do so.

The “New PDP” is altogether separate from the new, merged opposition party led by former Lagos state governor Bola Tinubu and former military chief of state Muhammadu Buhari. So, there are now three groupings in the Nigerian political firmament, the PDP, the “New PDP,” and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Especially in pre-election periods, Nigerian political grouping are usually in flux, with rapidly shifting coalitions. Access to money plays a major role. So, it remains to be seen what the staying power of the “New PDP” will be. Nevertheless, its northern cast indicates that Nigerian politics are moving in the direction of a north v.s. south model, which could pose a challenge to national unity.

Post a Comment 4 Comments

  • Posted by Chike

    Very true, a “North vs South” model is fraught with risk, especially at a time when the “class of 1966″ (like Obasanjo & Babangida) are about to exit the scene.

    We are a few election cycles away from the first set of state governors who were born after the Civil War. National unity is fraying and the idea of Nigeria means very little to the new generation.

    Is Nigeria an idea whose time is almost gone?

  • Posted by Omoba

    The boko haram phenomenon finally exposed the lies and sham that Nigeria was a united country. Having now done so, all other events such as the formation of the APC, and now splitting of PDP (Africa’s largest political party???) are mere icing on the cake. Infact, these new recycling of old principalities and power blocs re-affirms the question: WHO WILL RESCUE NIGERIA FROM CENTURIES-OLD PRINCIPALITIES AND TENDENCIES?

    At the root of it all are two main factors namely
    1) that the northern feudalists (to be found mainly in the so-called “core north” aka north-west) believe they are ‘born-to-rule’, a belief though well rooted in myth , is nevertheless clearly evident indeed. It is ofcourse well resented and resisted by southern Nigerians. And
    2) the refusal of the elitist tendency which have always risen to the rulership position, to foister a broad-based development agenda for the whole country, as opposed to islands of upper bourgeois elites isolated from the reality of mass poverty and deprivation in the people.

    However, i believe it is a good thing that this regime has chosen to allow issues come to a head in the manner it has, in the hope that some sort of a resolution or consensus will have to be reached. A consensus which will to a significant extent include the will of the mass of Nigerians who have themselves found their voice following recent empowerment by social media.

  • Posted by efe

    this was a great read. but what caused the fracas that led to the forming of a new party? don’t we have a right to know before casting our votes come 2015?

  • Posted by Kamau Mposi

    As I continue to insist, Nigeria (and the rest of the post-colonized world) must end the ‘nation’ that was created by its colonizers primarily as a means of controlling the ‘conquered’ nations (Ibo, Yoruba, Hausa, and the great middle belt of nations). Once these nations are separate, the traditional mechanisms will go far to control corruption, etc., though the need to create confederacies or a United Afrika will be necessary to speed development and security.

    love and work
    Kamau Mposi

Post a Comment

CFR seeks to foster civil and informed discussion of foreign policy issues. Opinions expressed on CFR blogs are solely those of the author or commenter, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. All comments must abide by CFR's guidelines and will be moderated prior to posting.

* Required