Alex Vines, director of Area Studies and International Law, and head of the Africa Program at Chatham House, a London based think-tank, has written a thoughtful article for CNN. He looks at U.S. counterterrorism operations in Africa, including questions about their legality under international law and their impact (often unintended) on weak African states.
I agree with his point that U.S. military engagements can–and have–caused greater instability in some African venues, rather than countering successfully terrorism and other forms of instability. Vines tees-off his analysis with discussion of the October 5-6 U.S. military operations in Libya and Somalia.
Vines recalls on-again, off-again American involvement since 1993 in Somalia, and makes a convincing argument (at least to me) that the effect was to promote radicalization in that country. Turning to contemporary terrorism, He reiterates the crucial point that “jihadi” terrorism is far from homogeneous–Boko Haram in Nigeria is very different from al-Shabaab in Somalia. But, such groups do well in weak states that are poorly governed. That reality implies that institution building, promotion of good governance, and more jobs is the way to address terrorism, rather than the quick fix of military action. But, that prescription requires sustained attention, now sorely lacking in paralyzed Washington.
Also salutary is Vines’ reminder that “counterterrorism policies live on the edge of international law.” They can have consequences that are directly contrary to U.S. long-term interests.