John Campbell

Africa in Transition

Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Showing posts for "Elections"

U.S. Visa Revocation

by John Campbell
Patience Jonathan, wife of Nigeria's president, casts her vote in Otuoke, Bayelsa State, March 28, 2015. (Courtesy Reuters/Afolabi Sotunde) Patience Jonathan, wife of Nigeria's president, casts her vote in Otuoke, Bayelsa State, March 28, 2015. (Courtesy Reuters/Afolabi Sotunde)

When Secretary of State John Kerry visited Nigeria in January in advance of Nigeria’s March 28 elections, he observed that anyone who incited violence or interfered with the electoral process would be subject to U.S. visa sanctions. Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield made the same point in an opinion piece she published in a Nigerian newspaper on April 20 in which she praised the Nigerian people and the election process. Read more »

Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update April 11-April 17

by John Campbell
The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau) The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau)

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from April 11, 2015 to April 17, 2015. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
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Buhari’s Strategy for Stopping Boko Haram

by John Campbell
Nigeria's former military ruler and All Progressives Congress presidential aspirant Muhammadu Buhari attends the inauguration ceremony of Osun state governor Rauf Aregbesola in Osogbo. November 27, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters) Nigeria's former military ruler and All Progressives Congress presidential aspirant Muhammadu Buhari attends the inauguration ceremony of Osun state governor Rauf Aregbesola in Osogbo. November 27, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)

On the one-year anniversary of the Boko Haram kidnapping of more than 200 school girls from Chibok, President-elect Muhammadu Buhari, in a New York Times op-ed, concisely laid out his approach to defeating Boko Haram. His op-ed is remarkable for its candor, realism, and its recognition of his government’s need to address the social and economic drivers of support for Boko Haram. Read more »

Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update March 28-April 3

by John Campbell
The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau) The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau)

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 28, 2015 to April 3, 2015. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
Read more »

Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential Victory in Nigeria

by John Campbell
Opposition presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), speaks during the Nigeria Labour Congress in Abuja, February 9, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Opposition presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), speaks during the Nigeria Labour Congress in Abuja, February 9, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

In a country where elections have routinely been rigged in favor of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential incumbent or his designee, opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari and his All Progressives Congress have won an astonishing victory. Buhari’s support was nationwide, and his vote total was the largest in four of Nigeria’s six geo-political zones. Unlike 2011, the electorate did not starkly bifurcate along north/south, Muslim/Christian lines. Read more »

Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update March 21-March 27

by John Campbell
The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau) The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau)

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 21, 2015 to March 27, 2015. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
Read more »

Will Buhari’s Win in Nigeria Stick?

by John Campbell
Presidential aspirant and former Nigerian military ruler Muhammadu Buhari speaks as he presents his manifesto at All Progressives Congress (APC) party convention in Lagos on December 11, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters) Presidential aspirant and former Nigerian military ruler Muhammadu Buhari speaks as he presents his manifesto at All Progressives Congress (APC) party convention in Lagos on December 11, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)

As of the morning of March 31, in New York, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, has a commanding lead over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). States yet to have their results announced are nearly all in the north of the country–Buhari’s traditional stronghold. Those results should increase Buhari’s already substantial margin of victory. Buhari has already declared victory. Thus far, there has been no comment from President Goodluck Jonathan. Read more »

The Nigerian Elections–Before the Results

by John Campbell
Women from communities in Rivers state protest against irregularities in voting in the weekend's election, in Port Harcourt, March 30, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Women from communities in Rivers state protest against irregularities in voting in the weekend's election, in Port Harcourt, March 30, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

The Nigerian presidential polling, initially scheduled for Saturday, March 28, was extended in some areas to Sunday, March 29, because of technical glitches. Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of the Independent National Elections Commission (INEC), is saying that the complete results will be announced on Tuesday, March 31. Read more »

Nigeria’s Elections: The Space Created by Waiting

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
Men walk in front election posters at an open market in Kano March 27, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) Men walk in front election posters at an open market in Kano March 27, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Emily Mellgard. Emily is a researcher for the Tony Blair Faith Foundation working on their online resource religionandgeopolitics.org in London, England, and a former research associate for the CFR Africa program. Emily recently returned from Nigeria. All opinions expressed are her own. Read more »

Nigeria’s Democracy Challenge

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
Members of the Nigerians United for Democracy Movement hold signs during a rally against any further election postponement in Abuja, February 14, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Members of the Nigerians United for Democracy Movement hold signs during a rally against any further election postponement in Abuja, February 14, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Russell Hanks, now retired from the State Department, who is a long-time observer of the Nigerian political scene. The views expressed are entirely his own.

Nigeria’s election, originally scheduled for last month, is set to take place this weekend. This is the first open election in the nation since 1980, one in which the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Read more »