John Campbell

Africa in Transition

Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Showing posts for "Population"

Nigeria’s Demographic Challenge

by John Campbell
People crowd a street at the central business district in Nigeria's commercial capital Lagos, ahead of Christmas on December 23, 2016. (Reuters/Akintunde Akinleye)

Nigeria’s large population and rapid urbanization has been celebrated among those in the U.S. business community optimistic about the country’s prospects. The country’s natural wealth, it was argued, provides the means to construct an education system and other infrastructure for a modern future. With a population projected to be the third largest in the world by mid-century, there are dramatic investment opportunities, so the story goes. Read more »

Protesting Power: Ethnic Demonstrations Continue in Ethiopia

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
A policeman attempts to control protesters chanting slogans during a demonstration over what they say is unfair distribution of wealth in the country at Meskel Square in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, August 6, 2016. (Reuters/Tiksa Negeri)

This is a guest post by Zara Riaz, a research specialist in the Politics Department at Princeton University.

In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia stands out among neighbors for its political and economic stability. Recent protests and escalating violence, however, expose Ethiopia’s longstanding political tensions and pose a serious threat to the government’s ability to maintain its strong hold. Read more »

The Surge of Insurgency/Terrorism in Recent Times: Social and Economic Consequences

by John Campbell
The flag of Nigeria is carried by Maryam Usman as the team enters the stadium during the opening ceremony for the 2014 Commonwealth Games at Celtic Park in Glasgow, Scotland, July 23, 2014. (Reuters/Jim Young)

The following text is the entirety of John Campbell’s speech delivered at the Nigeria Summit on National Security held by the Council on African Security and Development in Abuja, Nigeria, on May 25, 2016. 

Thank you for your warm introduction. It is a pleasure to be at this important conference, to see old friends, make new ones, and to be back in Nigeria. Read more »

Nigerian Popular Support for Boko Haram

by John Campbell
People gather at the cattle market in Maiduguri, Nigeria March 9, 2016. (Reuters/Afolabi Sotunde)

One of the many unknowns about Boko Haram, the radical Islamist terrorist movement associated with over 150 killings thus far in 2016, is how much popular support it actually enjoys. It is counterintuitive to witness popular support for a movement that brags about (and films) its grisly beheadings, makes use of female and child suicide bombers, and has contributed to some three million internally displaced persons in Nigeria and hundreds of thousands of refugees in adjacent countries. On the other hand, in its current iteration it has been active for five years, shows tactical flexibility, and kidnaps hundreds of women and girls. The more than two hundred Chibok school girls kidnapped in 2014 have never been accounted for, indicating that the movement has some logistical support structures that can feed, clothe, and house them. Read more »

What to Watch: Africa 2016

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell and John Campbell
Boys play on the roof of the entrance to a football stadium in Gao February 20, 2013. (Reuters/Joe Penney)

While western governments are currently transfixed on events in Iraq and Syria, it is important that they do not forget Africa. Boko Haram has become the world’s deadliest terrorist organization and Libya is increasingly becoming a base of operations for the Islamic State. Below, CFR’s Africa program outlines six African issues to watch in 2016. While they could certainly affect the lives of millions of Africans, these issues could also have serious implications for international politics. Read more »

Africa’s Middle Class

by John Campbell
Miners gesture next to houses, part of a 2.8 billion rand ($255 million) housing project put together by their employer at the WaterKlooff Hills in Rustenburg, September 16, 2014. (Courtesy/Siphiwe Sibeko)

According to a recent Credit Suisse report, the African middle class is almost seventeen times smaller than had been previously thought. For at least a decade it has been conventional wisdom among investors that Africa’s middle class is growing, that the “lions are on the move” (McKinsey’s phrase), and that the continent is the next China for frontier market investors. In 2011, the African Development Bank’s (AFDB) paper, “The Middle Pyramid: Dynamics of the Middle Class in Africa,” had classified 313 million Africans as middle class, further supporting the optimistic narrative. Read more »

Burundi’s Political Divide

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
Burundi's President President Pierre Nkurunziza (L) receives a symbolic chain after being sworn-in for a third term following his re-election at the Congress Palace in Kigobe district, Bujumbura, August 20, 2015. (Reuters/Evrard Ngendakumana)

This is a guest post by Claire Wilmot, a former intern for the Council on Foreign Relations Africa Program. She is a master of global affairs candidate at the University of Toronto. You can follow her on twitter at @claireLwilmot. Read more »

India and Africa: Partners With Potential

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
South Africa's President Jacob Zuma (L) shakes hands with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a photo opportunity before the start of their bilateral meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, October 28, 2015. (Reuters/Adnan Abidi)

This is a guest post by Ashlyn Anderson, research associate for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

India recently hosted a milestone summit attended by delegations from all fifty-four African countries. Confronting similar development challenges, India and the nations of Africa charted plans to deepen ties and unite to address shared global concerns. India is one of many countries keen to participate in Africa’s rise, and the third India-Africa Forum Summit signaled an alignment of interests and the potential for a closer relationship. Read more »

The Evolving Boko Haram War Machine

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
A military armoured tank is seen abandoned along a road after the Nigerian military recaptures the town of Michika from Boko Haram, Adamawa state, May 10, 2015. (Reuters/Akintunde Akinleye)

This is a guest post by Allen Grane, research associate for the Council on Foreign Relations Africa Studies program. Allen is an officer in the U.S. Army Reserves.

From 2014 through the February/March Nigerian military surge, Boko Haram was using advanced weapons systems and tactics to conquer and hold territory in northeastern Nigeria. At one point the insurgent group had control of a territory about the size of Belgium. Read more »

Where have all the young men gone?

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell
Adolescent migrants Mustafa (2nd R) from Gambia and Ishmael (R) from Sierra Leone stand in a courtyard at an immigration centre in Caltagirone, Sicily, March 18, 2015. (Reuters/Alessandro Bianchi)

This is a guest post by Mohamed Jallow, an Africa watcher, following politics and economic currents across the continent. He works at RTI International in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

I received a frantic phone call recently from a family member living in New York City. She was inquiring whether I knew anyone who could help, or any way for, a young seventeen-year-old migrant (her younger brother), stranded in Ecuador to come to the United States. I was lost for words. Do African migrants go to Ecuador? How in the world did he end up there? Read more »