John Campbell

Africa in Transition

Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update March 28-April 3

by John Campbell Monday, April 6, 2015
The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau) The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau)

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 28, 2015 to April 3, 2015. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
Read more »

“Hard for Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan Not To Run in 2015—But Can he Win?”

by John Campbell Friday, April 3, 2015
Two men cast their ballots in a poling station in Kano, March 28, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) Two men cast their ballots in a poling station in Kano, March 28, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters)

That was the title of my December 20, 2013 post. It appeared in the aftermath of former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s highly critical letter to Jonathan cataloging the latter’s political failures, the publicizing of Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi’s accusation that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation had failed to remit billions of dollars to the federal treasury, and the defecting of many legislators from Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Boko Haram attacks in the northeast were also escalating. Read more »

Nigeria President-elect Mohammadu Buhari’s Agenda

by John Campbell Thursday, April 2, 2015
All Progressives Congress presidential candidate and Nigeria's former military ruler Muhammodu Buhari leaves after a verification of his voter's card at a polling unit at the begining of general elections in Daura, March 28, 2015. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters) All Progressives Congress presidential candidate and Nigeria's former military ruler Muhammodu Buhari leaves after a verification of his voter's card at a polling unit at the begining of general elections in Daura, March 28, 2015. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)

As in the United States, there is a hiatus between a president’s election and his inauguration in Nigeria. Muhammadu Buhari will be inaugurated as president of Nigeria on May 29. In the meantime, President Jonathan remains in charge, but with little prestige and insufficient credibility to take the initiative in the aftermath of his election defeat. There will be gubernatorial and local elections on April 18; rivalries are often intense at that level, and there could be considerable bloodshed. Read more »

Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential Victory in Nigeria

by John Campbell Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Opposition presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), speaks during the Nigeria Labour Congress in Abuja, February 9, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Opposition presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), speaks during the Nigeria Labour Congress in Abuja, February 9, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

In a country where elections have routinely been rigged in favor of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential incumbent or his designee, opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari and his All Progressives Congress have won an astonishing victory. Buhari’s support was nationwide, and his vote total was the largest in four of Nigeria’s six geo-political zones. Unlike 2011, the electorate did not starkly bifurcate along north/south, Muslim/Christian lines. Read more »

Nigeria Security Tracker: Weekly Update March 21-March 27

by John Campbell Wednesday, April 1, 2015
The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau) The map above depicts deaths in Nigeria by state. (Source: CFR Nigeria Security Tracker; powered by Tableau)

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 21, 2015 to March 27, 2015. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
Read more »

Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan Concedes to Muhammadu Buhari

by John Campbell Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan (L) and former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari pose for a photo after signing a peace accord in Abuja March 26, 2015. (Stringer/Courtesy Reuters) Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan (L) and former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari pose for a photo after signing a peace accord in Abuja March 26, 2015. (Stringer/Courtesy Reuters)

International and Nigerian media is reporting that Aviation Minister Osita Chidoka and opposition All Progressives Congress Party spokesman Lai Mohammed state that President Goodluck Jonathan has called Muhammadu Buhari to offer his congratulations on Buhari’s victory in the March 28, Nigerian presidential elections. Read more »

Will Buhari’s Win in Nigeria Stick?

by John Campbell Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Presidential aspirant and former Nigerian military ruler Muhammadu Buhari speaks as he presents his manifesto at All Progressives Congress (APC) party convention in Lagos on December 11, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters) Presidential aspirant and former Nigerian military ruler Muhammadu Buhari speaks as he presents his manifesto at All Progressives Congress (APC) party convention in Lagos on December 11, 2014. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)

As of the morning of March 31, in New York, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, has a commanding lead over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). States yet to have their results announced are nearly all in the north of the country–Buhari’s traditional stronghold. Those results should increase Buhari’s already substantial margin of victory. Buhari has already declared victory. Thus far, there has been no comment from President Goodluck Jonathan. Read more »

The Nigerian Elections–Before the Results

by John Campbell Monday, March 30, 2015
Women from communities in Rivers state protest against irregularities in voting in the weekend's election, in Port Harcourt, March 30, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Women from communities in Rivers state protest against irregularities in voting in the weekend's election, in Port Harcourt, March 30, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

The Nigerian presidential polling, initially scheduled for Saturday, March 28, was extended in some areas to Sunday, March 29, because of technical glitches. Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of the Independent National Elections Commission (INEC), is saying that the complete results will be announced on Tuesday, March 31. Read more »

Nigeria’s Elections: The Space Created by Waiting

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Friday, March 27, 2015
Men walk in front election posters at an open market in Kano March 27, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) Men walk in front election posters at an open market in Kano March 27, 2015. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Emily Mellgard. Emily is a researcher for the Tony Blair Faith Foundation working on their online resource religionandgeopolitics.org in London, England, and a former research associate for the CFR Africa program. Emily recently returned from Nigeria. All opinions expressed are her own. Read more »

Nigeria’s Democracy Challenge

by Guest Blogger for John Campbell Thursday, March 26, 2015
Members of the Nigerians United for Democracy Movement hold signs during a rally against any further election postponement in Abuja, February 14, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters) Members of the Nigerians United for Democracy Movement hold signs during a rally against any further election postponement in Abuja, February 14, 2015. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)

This is a guest post by Russell Hanks, now retired from the State Department, who is a long-time observer of the Nigerian political scene. The views expressed are entirely his own.

Nigeria’s election, originally scheduled for last month, is set to take place this weekend. This is the first open election in the nation since 1980, one in which the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Read more »