Finance ministers and central bank governors of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa attend the BRICs news conference during the annual International Monetary Fund-World Bank meetings in Washington, September 22, 2011 (Yuri Gripas/Courtesy Reuters).

In this week’s Missing Pieces, Charles Landow highlights the latest economic projections from the IMF as well as interesting stories from Africa and the Middle East. We look forward to your thoughts as always. Enjoy!

• The IMF’s New Projections: The IMF last week released its latest World Economic Outlook. The title is grim: “Slowing Growth, Rising Risks.” With troubles in the United States and Europe, natural disaster in Japan, and unrest in the oil-rich Middle East, “the global economy is in a dangerous new phase.” Unsurprisingly, the good news is reserved for certain emerging markets. China is projected to maintain blistering growth, with India trailing somewhat but still robust. (India does face far higher, though declining, inflation.) In Latin America the picture is split between booming South American economies, such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, and their northerly neighbors harder hit by the struggling United States. Growth in both Brazil and Mexico is projected to drop but remain respectable. In sub-Saharan Africa, low-income countries, largely detached from the global economy and therefore spared from the recent crisis, are expected to grow strongly. Africa’s middle-income countries (including South Africa) have felt the global slowdown more, but the IMF still projects solid average growth. The continent’s major oil exporters, such as Nigeria and Angola, are expected to continue robust expansion. Finally, in the Middle East, the outlook is unclear given political events and global uncertainty. Oil exporters are projected to grow strongly for the most part, with Qatar leading the way and Iran lagging behind. Oil importers, by contrast, are projected to achieve only slow growth. This group includes Egypt, which faces growth prospects of under 2 percent and inflation of more than 11 percent–a difficult environment in which to manage surging post-revolution expectations. Read more »

France's President Sarkozy; NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil; Mahmoud Jibril, head of NTC executive; and Britain's PM Cameron address a news conference in Tripoli, Libya, September 15, 2011 (Anis Mili/Courtesy Reuters).

In this week’s Missing Pieces, Charles Landow highlights developments from Guatemala to Nigeria, with several stops along the way. Please share your views on these or other stories from the past week. Enjoy!

• Libya After Qaddafi: Prime Minister David Cameron of the UK and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France became the first Western leaders to visit post-Qaddafi Libya on Wednesday. They received a warm welcome from officials of Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC). The visit comes as the NTC seeks to consolidate its authority and launch a successful transition. Various groups are jockeying for position, revealing fault lines over regional influence, Islamism, and the role of leaders who returned from abroad vs. those who resisted Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi from within. The BBC and the Los Angeles Times report this week on the NTC’s struggle to assert control over the militias that effected Qaddafi’s ouster. The New York Times has a piece on the controversial influence of Islamists. But the Economist thinks the authorities are off to a “remarkably hopeful start,” with even Islamists such as Tripoli’s military commander, Abdel Hakim Belhaj, making moderate noises. What will be the international role in aiding Libya’s transition? Cameron and Sarkozy pledged continued help for the government and people. In a Washington Post op-ed on Monday, the Libyan ambassador to Washington, Ali Suleiman Aujali, requests technical support for democratic institutions and the economy, as well as the unfreezing of Libyan assets abroad. And on CNN.com, Blair Glencorse urges international actors to help Libya build a strong legal system and government institutions that can competently manage its wealth, among other priorities. Read more »

Syrian government loyalists hold up placards during a protest outside the U.S. embassy in Damascus, July 11, 2011 (Courtesy Reuters).

In this week’s Missing Pieces, Charles Landow highlights the latest developments in Syria and Pakistan, as well as interesting scholarly work on other regions and issues. I hope you enjoy the selection and look forward to your comments.

• Syria’s Political Perspectives: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has managed to retain power through six months of rebellion and the fall of three fellow Arab autocrats. The New York Times last week offered a fascinating glimpse at a central reason why: many Damascus elites support Assad’s regime and deny that their country is in upheaval. The piece explores the views of clients at a fancy Damascus salon, where the debate centers not on democracy but on nail polish. Some agree with the government that protesters are seeking to foment division. Others are minorities, such as Christians, who fear life under Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority in a post-Assad era. The article gives a starkly different perspective from most news reports on Syria, making it a valuable read. For a longer but no less worthwhile look at the country’s revolutionary stirrings, see Wendell Steavenson’s “Roads to Freedom” in the August 29 issue of the New Yorker. It offers a nuanced portrait of several leading revolutionaries, ending on an optimistic note for Syria’s future. Read more »

An Afghan girl carries a pail of water fashioned from a U.S. government aid agency can while crossing a busy street in Kabul, Afghanistan, September 26, 2002 (Romeo Ranoco/Courtesy Reuters).

After a two-week hiatus, Charles Landow offers an expanded selection of articles and other materials in this Labor Day version of Missing Pieces. I hope you enjoy the reading and the long weekend. Please let us know what you think, and visit the blog often as CFR begins its new programming year after the holiday. Enjoy!

The Humanitarian Impulse: As the United States and its allies begin to draw down from Afghanistan, Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus have published a book on a question that is far easier to ask than to answer: Can Intervention Work? Stewart, a British member of parliament famous for his walk across Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion, and Knaus, the chairman of the European Stability Initiative, take a bulldozer to the theoretical underpinnings of humanitarian intervention–the idea that the international community can save lives and transform societies if only it applies the proper resources and plans. The authors criticize Western nation-builders for an inflated sense of their own power and an inadequate appreciation of local actors, and they paint a devastating portrait of Westerners’ isolation and ignorance in Afghanistan. The book does not eschew intervention but recommends a modest approach. Intervention, Stewart and Knaus write, “should aim to provide protection and relief at a specific time and place,” not to remake entire societies. It is a sound premise, though not exactly a revelation after the experiences of recent years. CFR’s Stewart Patrick tackles the related question of when to intervene in a recent ForeignAffairs.com article. He considers the Libya intervention a success for the Responsibility to Protect doctrine, but cautions that the United States and its allies will not–and should not–apply the doctrine universally in the future.

Read more »

Activists from the Socialist Unity Centre of India shout slogans and hold placards during a protest against corruption and price hike in diesel, kerosene and cooking gas in Ahmedabad, India, August 7, 2011 (Amit Dave/Courtesy Reuters).

Charles Landow features topics ranging from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe in this week’s Missing Pieces. As always, enjoy the reading and let us know what you think.

India’s Growth Machine: Between 1991, when India launched a slate of economic reforms, and 2010, the country’s GDP more than quintupled and its GDP per capita almost quadrupled, according to the IMF’s latest figures. But lately fears are rising that this growth could slow. Inflation is high (over 13 percent in 2010, according to the IMF), foreign investment has declined (with a 29-percent drop from 2009 to 2010, according to India’s own figures), and a series of corruption scandals has wounded India’s leadership. The Voice of America and the Wall Street Journal reported last week on Indian officials’ reactions to the downgrade of U.S. government debt. A U.S. slowdown could damage India by reducing demand for its exports, including its famous outsourcing services. Recently the prime minister’s Economic Advisory Council lowered its growth projection for 2011 and 2012 from 9.0 percent to 8.2 percent, citing “the inflationary situation and investment slowdown.” That reduced rate would still be impressive. But with 37 percent of Indians below the poverty line, according to the UN Development Programme, even mild slowdowns affect millions. The Economist argued in July for new reforms to reinvigorate the economy. Read more »

Naheed Ahmadi Farid, an Afghan parliamentary candidate, casts her ballot at a polling station in Herat, Afghanistan, September 18, 2010 (Rehab Homavandi/Courtesy Reuters).

Welcome to Democracy in Development.

These are interesting times for those who care deeply about the spread of freedom and prosperity in the world today. There are tremendous reasons for optimism—from improvements in global health and rising levels of education, to the spread of beneficial new technologies and media, expanding middle classes, greater rights for women, and emerging democracies around the globe. To be sure, deprivation, poor governance, war, disease, violations of human rights, extremism, and many other ills remain acute. Moreover, the global economic crisis and the rise of a powerful alternative model in China’s “authoritarian capitalism” have shaken faith in open markets and democracy.

However,  I continue to believe in a capitalist, democratic system as the best means of advancing liberty and economic growth; while it has its limitations and drawbacks, I am not convinced there is any better alternative.  Many years post-graduate school, I am still inspired by the work of economist Amartya Sen, who views development as an expansive concept not limited to simple questions of income. “Economic growth cannot sensibly be treated as an end in itself,” Professor Sen wrote in Development as Freedom. “Development has to be more concerned with enhancing the lives we lead and the freedoms we enjoy.”

Read more »