Below is my take on Egypt’s presidential elections, scheduled for May 23, originally published here on CFR.org. I hope you find it interesting. 

Over the last sixteen months, Egypt has experienced wrenching economic problems, continuing street protests, spasms of violence, and a noticeable deterioration of state authority. Yet these challenges have not, as some have warned, undermined the promise of Tahrir Square in the eyes of many Egyptians. To be sure, the revolutionary activists have lost their luster, the liberals have proven themselves too fragmented to be an effective political force, and the labor movement–a potentially potent bloc–has yet to make a full impact on the political arena. Read more »

The Arabist discusses the Algerian exception.

Jeremy Keenan says that Algeria’s election was a fraud, ending hopes for democracy in the country. Read more »

My colleague Laurie Garrett and I wrote this piece on the threat of foot and mouth disease in Egypt, which can be read in full here on The Atlantic. I hope you find it interesting. Read more »

CFR’s recently released Independent Task Force on Turkey, co-chaired by Madeleine K. Albright and Stephen J. Hadley, and directed by Steven A. Cook. Read more »

Over the course of the last month, I have had a fascinating conversation with Adam Garfinkle, the editor of The American Interest, about Egyptian politics and society.  Below please find an excerpt.  You can read a transcript of the entire conversation here.   Read more »

Itamar Rabinovich says the United States is substituting symbolic action for real action in Syria–at the detriment of the Syrian people.

Aboubakr Jamai explains the Moroccan “miracle” of mild authoritarianism. Read more »

I remember in 2008 sitting in the office of Abdel Monem Said Aly who at the time was the director of the Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies when the subject of the Sinai came up. It was a few months’ time after Hamas had blown a hole in the wall that separates Gaza from the Egyptian frontier, resulting in thousands of Palestinians rushing into the Sinai to buy supplies and seek medical care.  Abdel Monem was not unmoved by the plight of the Palestinians, but he was clearly worried about Egyptian security.  He asked me what I thought would happen if a Palestinian extremist group were able to infiltrate Israel from the Sinai and carry out some sort of deadly attack.  “How would Israel respond?” Abdel Monem asked rhetorically.  He knew that the Israelis would respond, but how, where, and to what extent were unknowns that clearly unsettled him.  At one end of the escalation ladder, the Israelis military might try to push into the Sinai much like the Israel Defense Force’s periodic advances in Lebanon or the Turkish military’s incursions into northern Iraq.  This would no doubt put the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and thus Egyptian security in jeopardy. Perhaps the Israelis would use some other tactic, but either way this would create a terrible security dilemma for Egypt’s leaders.  The Egyptians could absorb the blow and be forced to confront additional opprobrium of their people or they could respond and risk a conflict with Israel that they would likely lose. Read more »

Egypt continues to be extraordinarily interesting.  As I write, we are expecting a cabinet reshuffle, there are rumors that Mohamed Morsi—the Muslim Brotherhood/Freedom and Justice Party candidate for president—will pull out of the race if the Brothers get a place in the new government, the Salafi al Nour party endorsed Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh for president, and Mohamed ElBaradei has returned to the political arena with the formation of the Constitution Party.  All this occurred in a single weekend, which really isn’t the astonishing thing about these developments.  Rather, it is astonishing that Egypt has had more than a few weekends like this since Hosni Mubarak’s flight to Sharm El Sheikh in February 2011.  The last four weeks or so, in particular, have been a real barnburner as Egyptians gear up for the presidential election slated for May 23.  Throughout the ups and downs and twists and turns of Egyptian politics during the last 16 months observers—including myself—have held fast to a number of assumptions that form the basis of what’s become a standard narrative about the future of Egypt.  Yet, it is entirely unclear after all that has happened since the promising days and weeks after the uprising that these ideas reflect reality. Read more »

A compilation of reactions to Mona el-Tahawy’s controversial piece, “Why Do They Hate Us?”.

Quinn Mecham writes a policy brief for POMED on a strategy for sustained engagement with Islamist parties. Read more »

Since January, I’ve written a few posts on fascinating developments in Turkey’s civil-military relations.  It is a critical and evolving story that will have long-lasting effects on Turkey’s political development.  Please let me know what you think. Read more »