Robert M. Danin

Middle East Matters

Danin analyzes critical developments and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Posts by Category

Showing posts for "Saudi Arabia"

Middle East Matters This Week: Syrian Chemical Weapons, Iraqi Violence, and U.S. Regional Engagement

by Robert M. Danin
Residents wear masks as they search for bodies in Aleppo (Salman/Courtesy Reuters). Residents wear masks as they search for bodies in Aleppo (Salman/Courtesy Reuters).

Significant Developments

Syria. Syrian officials today denied international allegations that Bashar al-Assad’s forces had used chemical weapons in Syria. Yesterday, the White House sent a letter to Congressional leaders stating that U.S.  intelligence agencies assessed “with varying degrees of confidence” that Assad’s government had used the chemical agent sarin on a small scale. Read more »

A Final Note From 2012

by Robert M. Danin
The late Saudi crown prince Nayef at a news conference in Mecca (Awad/Courtesy Reuters). The late Saudi crown prince Nayef at a news conference in Mecca (Awad/Courtesy Reuters).

Last week I posted my take on the most significant Middle East developments of 2012. The ten developments that I identified, in chronological order, were:

  1. The cold war with Iran heats up
  2. The Muslim Brotherhood’s election in Egypt
  3. Syria’s descent into civil war
  4. The Innocence of Muslims anti-American riots
  5. The killing of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi
  6. Political unrest in Jordan
  7. The Israel-Hamas November conflict
  8. The United Nations recognition of Palestine as a non-member state
  9. International failure to stop Syria’s bloodshed
  10. The Muslim Brotherhood’s struggle to consolidate power in Egypt

    11. Read more »

Voices From the Region: Israel, Hamas, Syria, Saudi Arabia

by Robert M. Danin
Ahmed Al-Jaabari, chief of the armed wing of Hamas, escorting Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing on October 18, 2011 (Farid/Courtesy Reuters). Ahmed Al-Jaabari, chief of the armed wing of Hamas, escorting Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing on October 18, 2011 (Farid/Courtesy Reuters).

“This is a real declaration of war. The enemy will pay a heavy price for its crime and will regret the moment it thought of perpetrating it.” – Fawzi Barhoum, a spokesman for Hamas, in response to the Israeli strike that killed Ahmed al-Jaabari, head of the military wing of the organization Read more »

Egypt’s Election Turmoil, Saudi Succession Challenges, Failed Iranian Nuclear Talks, and Syria’s Deadly Stalemate

by Robert M. Danin
Protesters chant slogans against the military council at Tahrir Square in Cairo on June 20, 2012 (Asmaa Waguih/Courtesy Reuters). Protesters chant slogans against the military council at Tahrir Square in Cairo on June 20, 2012 (Asmaa Waguih/Courtesy Reuters).

Significant Middle East Developments

Egypt. Egyptian election officials announced yesterday that they were postponing the announcement of the country’s presidential runoff, plunging the country into further uncertainty. Official results of the presidential election will not be released until Sunday, purportedly to evaluate allegations of electoral abuse and voter fraud. The election commission had been expected to confirm a winner today, and, based on a public vote count, to have named Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood. Read more »

Middle East Matters This Week: Palestinian Unity and Syria’s Disunity

by Robert M. Danin
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal walk with Qatar's emir sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani as they arrive to sign an agreement in Doha on February 6, 2012 (Courtesy Reuters). Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal walk with Qatar's emir sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani as they arrive to sign an agreement in Doha on February 6, 2012 (Courtesy Reuters).

Significant Middle East Developments

Syria. Russia and China vetoed an Arab and Western-backed resolution at the UN Security Council last Saturday following a flurry of negotiations. Russia succeeded in watering down the text of the resolution, only to then vote against it. (I offer a proposal for engaging the Russians in a ‘grand bargain’ as the international community considers more robust means to halt the bloodshed in Syria, which is available here.) Read more »

Is Saudi Arabia Next?

by Robert M. Danin

Protesters chant slogans and hold posters of prisoners during a protest in Qatif on March 9, 2011. The banner reads: "Peacefully, Peacefully," (Courtesy Reuters).

Recent demonstrations and violence in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province that left four people dead and nine others wounded raise the question: Is Saudi Arabia the next country that will encounter the wave of popular unrest sweeping the Arab world?

Already the Arab uprisings’ effects have been felt in Saudi Arabia. In February and March, soon after Mubarak’s overthrow in Egypt, Saudi Facebook activists began calling for a revolution and declared a “Day of Rage” for March 11, emulating the youth activists in Egypt and Tunisia. However, the “Day of Rage” fizzled out, and demonstrations were held only in the Eastern Province, home to Saudi’s restive Shia minority.

Since then, things have been relatively quiet, at least until recently. One reason is that unlike Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, and Libya, which are technically republics, Saudi Arabia is a monarchy run by the Al Saud family. So far, the Arab monarchies have been better suited to absorb discontent. In many of the region’s monarchies, while the king maintains ultimate control, power is more diffuse and thus the top leaders are able to deflect some criticism. Monarchies have so far proven to have greater legitimacy in the eyes of their countrymen than have the faux-republics. That doesn’t mean that they are immune to unrest, as we have seen in Jordan and Bahrain, the latter though is anomalous in that a Sunni minority rules over a Shiite majority. But they are better positioned to manage it. Read more »