CFR Presents

Development Channel

Issues and innovations in global economic development

Print Print Email Email Share Share Cite Cite
Style: MLA APA Chicago Close

loading...

New From CFR: Foreign Affairs on the Fate of the BRICs

by Development Channel Staff
October 25, 2012

Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and South African President Jacob Zuma join their hands together during a group photo for the BRICS Summit in New Delhi, India, March 29, 2012 (B Mathur/Courtesy Reuters). Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and South African President Jacob Zuma join their hands together during a group photo for the BRICS Summit in New Delhi, India, March 29, 2012 (B Mathur/Courtesy Reuters).

In an article in the November/December issue of Foreign Affairs, Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management punctures the notion that the BRICs–and emerging markets more broadly–are set for an inexorable economic rise. Instead, he argues, they are entering an era of variable growth in line with historical norms. As he writes:

None of this should be surprising, because it is hard to sustain rapid growth for more than a decade. The unusual circumstances of the last decade made it look easy: coming off the crisis-ridden 1990s and fueled by a global flood of easy money, the emerging markets took off in a mass upward swing that made virtually every economy a winner. By 2007, when only three countries in the world suffered negative growth, recessions had all but disappeared from the international scene. But now, there is a lot less foreign money flowing into emerging markets. The global economy is returning to its normal state of churn, with many laggards and just a few winners rising in unexpected places.

Interestingly, Sharma adds that of the best-performing developing countries, many will be low-income:

To the extent that there will be a new crop of emerging-market stars in the coming years, therefore, it is likely to feature countries whose per capita incomes are under $5,000, such as Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and various contenders in East Africa.

You can read the full article here.

Post a Comment No Comments

Post a Comment

CFR seeks to foster civil and informed discussion of foreign policy issues. Opinions expressed on CFR blogs are solely those of the author or commenter, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. All comments must abide by CFR's guidelines and will be moderated prior to posting.

* Required

Pingbacks