In this guest post, my colleague Rachel Vogelstein analyzes the issue of child marriage and its implications for U.S. policy in a range of areas. She is the author of an important new CFR report on child marriage.

Under current trends, experts predict that, by 2020, some fifty million girls will be married before they reach their fifteenth birthdays. In a CFR.org video today, which you can view above or on YouTube, I explain three things to know about the practice of child marriage and why it matters to U.S. foreign policy.

First, child marriage is far more prevalent than most people realize. The number of women married as children is staggering: the United Nations estimates that one in three women aged twenty to twenty-four—about 70 million—was married under the age of eighteen. Many of these women are far younger than eighteen at the time of their marriage: nearly five million girls are married under the age of fifteen every year, or about thirteen thousand per day. Some are married as young as eight or nine years old. This practice occurs across regions, cultures, and religions: India accounts for forty percent of the world’s known child brides, and this tradition is also pervasive elsewhere in South Asia, across Sub-Saharan Africa, and in parts of Latin America and the Middle East.

The second thing to know about child marriage is that ending this practice is not just a moral imperative—it is a strategic imperative. Child marriage is undoubtedly a violation of human rights: it truncates girls’ education, robs them of their economic potential, endangers their health, and exposes them to sexual violence and abuse. But child marriage also matters because it undermines U.S. interests in development, prosperity, and stability. Consider, for example, the effect of this practice on economic growth: research suggests that child marriage curtails education for young girls, which has been shown to stifle economic progress. Instability is also associated with child marriage: one analysis found that most of the twenty-five countries with the highest prevalence of child marriage are either fragile states or at high risk of natural disaster. Yet perpetuation of this practice in weak states only exacerbates poverty and instability in places already overwhelmed by complex challenges.

The third thing to know about child marriage is that lawmakers recently elevated this issue on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. In March, Congress enacted a provision in the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act that requires the Secretary of State to develop a U.S. strategy to combat child marriage. As the Obama Administration and Congress work together to develop and fund this strategy in a time of fiscal austerity, policymakers would do well to remember that the success of U.S. efforts to foster development, prosperity, and stability will grow if this persistent practice comes to an end.

In spite of the global economic turbulence of recent years, many countries in the global south are experiencing rapid growth. Cities are booming, infrastructure projects are expanding, and luxury goods are becoming commonplace. However, economic growth within a country does not necessarily bring shared benefits to all citizens. One of the greatest development challenges of the 21^st century is the stubborn and often extensive poverty of middle income countries.

In many cases, within minutes of bustling city centers lie expansive slums where the benefits of development can hardly be seen. Shining new cities stand in stark contrast to crumbling and overflowing residences of those who know little of the benefits economic growth has brought to their country.

For example, in Paraguay, despite an impressive 13 percent growth rate and the emerging opulence of the capital Asunción, the benefits of growth are visible only in select areas of the country. Minutes outside the capital lay sprawling slums where the economic boom has left many behind. The country, long one of the poorest and most unequal in South America, has a poverty rate over 30 percent.

In Panama, the shiny new skyscrapers of Panama City overlook the city of Colón, where decaying buildings, makeshift infrastructure, and high crime are the norm. In spite of an average growth rate of 9 percent over the past five years, just an hour away, few are seeing the benefits.

Such disparities are more the rule than the exception, unfortunately. According to Ronn Pineo, senior research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, the data on poverty and inequality are similar in other Latin American countries experiencing high growth rates, including Peru, Ecuador, and Brazil.

Even in rich countries, where there exist sufficient resources to meet the basic social and economic rights of all citizens, inequality is a major challenge. In the United States, for example, inequality is a major contributor to the highest rate of infant mortality in the developed world. Mothers living in poverty have a much higher probability of losing their child on the day of birth than their more prosperous neighbors.

Inequality has a negative impact not only on those who get left behind by growth, but also on society as a whole. As previously discussed in our two part series on inequality, large income disparities compromise government accountability by concentrating political power in the hands of a few wealthy citizens, undermining institutions necessary for enduring economic growth. For example, policies with universal benefits, such as education and health care access for all, may be of little interest to elites; however, these kinds of broad-based investments in human capital are essential for sustained, long-term growth.

Development is not merely about economic growth within a country. It is, fundamentally, about improving opportunities for the people who live there, especially for the poorest. However, in many places, growth is not currently benefiting those who need it most, but is instead concentrating wealth and power in the hands of those with access to opportunities and resources. The pressing challenge for middle-income countries now is to translate their impressive growth rates into widely shared benefits, and to ensure that the promise of development reduces poverty and expands opportunities for all citizens.

As my colleague Isobel Coleman wrote last week, Saudi Arabia has just leaped a small hurdle towards gender equality: announcing last week that it will allow female athletics in private schools. Until now girls have been prohibited from playing sports as a part of formal education. The move comes on the heels of last year’s decision to allow two Saudi women to compete in the Olympics for the first time in the country’s history.

While allowing a few girls to play sports may seem inconsequential, it is a small step that may have ripple effects for gender equality in the country. And while a valuable goal in itself, greater gender equality is also correlated with the achievement of other development goals, such as improvements in health, education, social and economic rights fulfillment, and even economic growth.

As noted in my August 21, 2012 blog post, UNDP finds a broad correlation between gender inequality and human development outcomes. Low-ranking countries on the Human Development Index (HDI) in general perform much more poorly on gender inequality measurements than do high-HDI countries. Higher levels of female education and literacy have been found to reduce child mortality and improve educational outcomes for the next generation. The presence of women in political leadership positions appears to increase schooling for girls. Lower fertility rates, also associated with increased educational attainment for women, can have a positive effect on growth, while gender inequality in education undermines growth. In my own recent research, my colleagues and I show a strong correlation between gender equality and economic and social rights fulfillment, finding a positive relationship between our Social & Economic Fulfillment Rights Index and Social Watch’s Gender Equity Index and UNDP’s Gender Inequality Index.

Saudi Arabia already has quite high SERF and HDI scores relative to its poor gender equality score. However, steps in the direction of gender parity even at the level of athletics can have positive effects on women’s equality within the country more broadly, and may help sustain and increase high levels of development in the long term. Playing sports can be an essential part of education, teaching leadership and teamwork to participants, as well as improving self-esteem and overall health. (For more on this, Emerging Voices contributor Katie Rock discusses the substantial benefits of giving girls the opportunity to play sports and the challenges of doing so, as she’s seen through her work in Nicaragua).

Though the Saudi reform only applies to private schools initially, the decision is interpreted by many as a test before expanding girls’ sports to public schools. The move also calls for ensuring proper facilities for women to practice, no small order in a country where adequate space for women to exercise in private, in accordance with sharia law, is severely lacking. More girls on the soccer field is a small leap forward well worth celebrating.

The African growth story continues as investors pour into Africa. Investment is booming and interest in the continent is surging as capital seeks regions still able to flourish despite the broader global economy’s fight to return to robust—or at least decent—health.

Despite the economic doldrums in much of the world over the past decade, Africa has managed to grow at an average of more than 5 percent, notes the 2013 Africa Competitiveness Report, produced by the World Bank, World Economic Forum, and African Development Bank.

“Africa is at an auspicious moment in history, when the successes of past decades and an increasingly favorable economic outlook combine to give the continent an unprecedented opportunity to boost investments and spur regional integration to end poverty within a generation,” note the report’s sponsors.

Indeed, Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of the global investment firm PIMCO, recently authored a piece on the very real rise of Africa’s economic prospects.

“Now, from bonds to private equity, new vehicles are emerging to channel foreign investments into more of the most promising African economies. How real is the boom?” El-Erian asked. “Foreign direct investment in sub-Saharan Africa has leapt from $6 billion in 2000 to $34 billion in 2012. In just the past couple of years, several African countries—among them Angola, Namibia, Senegal, and Zambia—have issued external debt for the first time, allowing them to invest for the future.”

The IMF, too, recently issued its Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa and projects “regional economic growth of 5½ percent in 2013–2014, compared with 5 percent in 2012. Investment is expected to remain a key driver of growth, while measured activity in 2013 will also be boosted by one-off factors in some countries, including rebound effects from floods in Nigeria and recovery of agriculture in regions previously affected by drought.”

Yet even with the good news the continent continues to face poverty and development challenges. Ninety percent of Sub-Saharan African countries in Transparency International’s 2012 Corruptions Perception Index reported a score below 50 out of 100. The World Bank notes that Sub-Saharan Africa has a poverty headcount ratio, defined as the percentage of population living at below $1.25 per day, of 48.5 percent.  That number rises to 70 percent when the dollar figure rises to $2.00. Child marriage continues to plague the continent, with Niger and Chad both seeing more than 70 percent of their girls wed before the age of 18. Growth is uneven across the continent and, the World Bank argues, “highly reliant on natural resources, with a number of resource-rich countries enjoying very strong growth—in some cases over 10 percent—and other countries not doing very well.”

Still, the positive developments are real and growing. As the World Bank notes of Africa, “improvements in macroeconomic performance, coupled with its limited integration into the global economy, have helped to mitigate the effects of the global economic crisis. More generally, it should be noted that sub-Saharan Africa has made considerable progress in ensuring sounder macroeconomic policies over the past 15 years and has reached levels of macroeconomic performance similar to that of other developing countries.”

To boost this growth and further it, the World Bank, World Economic Forum, and African Development Bank recommend that countries lower barriers to increased trade, invest in infrastructure, and strengthen the legal and regulatory environment. The trio also recommends “innovative public-private partnerships” that “can serve as incubators for self-sustaining industrialization, more jobs, greater opportunities, and more dynamic regional integration.”

As the report notes, “the present time is fortuitous for Africa. The continent is enjoying solid growth, and much international attention is focused on Africa as an investment destination, with a specific emphasis on the continent’s infrastructure.”

Emerging Voices features regular contributions from scholars and practitioners highlighting new research, thinking, and approaches to development challenges. This article is from Sir Michael Barber, who is the U.K. Department for International Development’s (DfID) (unpaid) special representative on education in Pakistan, the chief education advisor at Pearson, and from 2001 to 2005, was the chief advisor on delivery to Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the article he discusses an educational reform program he helps lead in Pakistan and the broader debate over the effective delivery of foreign aid.

In many countries, there are two camps: those who want less aid because it is ineffective, and those who want more because it is fundamental to global justice. I propose an alternative to this fruitless debate. I support government’s commitment to aid but surely the aim should be to end it in time, not because it has failed but because it was demonstrably successful.

This is what we in the development community should want, and it is also what visionary leaders in the developing world, including Pakistan, want. They look forward to their country succeeding without aid. In the meantime they want support that is effective and demonstrates results. This demands a radical and rigorous approach to aid.

The Punjab Education Reform Roadmap, which I have been leading along with Shahbaz Sharif, who recently left office as chief minister of the Pakistani province of Punjab, suggests a way forward. When we set the goals for Punjab some donors accused us of being “too ambitious” and “too urgent.” We pleaded guilty. The risks of moving too slowly in Pakistan are much greater than the risks of moving too fast.

When we began implementation of the roadmap in August 2011, only 82.8 percent of enrolled students attended school each day, only 80.7 percent of teachers attended class, and only 68.9 percent of facilities had functioning electricity, drinking water, toilets, and boundary walls. The results after two years speak for themselves: as of December 2012, student attendance was up to 92.1 percent, teacher attendance reached 92.1 percent, and 90.9 percent of facilities were up to standards. This translates to approaching 1.5 million extra children now enrolled in school, and another million, who had been formally enrolled but rarely turned up, attending school every day. Schools serving three million children have had their facilities repaired. More than 90 percent of teachers are now present every day, with new lesson plans and coaching to help them teach and new textbooks for every pupil from next month.

In addition, the program has given over 140,000 out-of-school children from poor families vouchers that they can take to any registered private school. Non-government providers have been encouraged to set up new schools where government provision is weak or non-existent. It is one of the largest voucher programs in the world, and a model of effective public-private partnership in education.

There is evidence of improved outcomes, too. Two years ago Punjab-India and Punjab-Pakistan were level-pegging; now Pakistan is out in front. Perhaps most important of all, more and more people in Punjab believe that this time, after decades of failure, they will succeed.

How was this achieved?

To start, we set clear, ambitious targets for each district and the whole province and developed a system to monitor progress in real time. By collecting data from all 60,000 government schools monthly, we’ve been able to check regularly whether we are on track to achieving these goals. By focusing on school-level data, we were able to tell district leaders exactly which schools are lagging and even which teachers did not attend school in the prior month. This allows the systems leaders to immediately take action to resolve issues and improve performance.  We’ve avoided the classic error of focusing purely on enrollment and ignoring quality.

Second, we established routines to review progress and ensure a constant focus on implementation. In each conversation, we ask officials at all levels of the system whether they are on track to meet their goals and how they respond when they are not. Where they are off track we offer a combination of pressure and support. As a result, we’ve established a system of sharp accountability and tackled corruption head-on by insisting on merit-based appointments. Since the start of the roadmap 81,000 teachers have been hired on merit.

Most important of all, the roadmap was never a separate aid initiative; it was a partnership with the committed chief minister, Shahbaz Sharif, to improve the entire schools system, which serves over twenty million children.

The aid money certainly helped to bring about this success, but aid is under 5 percent of Punjab’s total expenditure on education. The real keys have been the program’s design, based on good evidence of what works around the world, and the relentless focus on implementation. Through floods, outbreaks of dengue fever, and the many crises that afflict Pakistan, the routine tasks of implementation–checking impact at the front lines, reviewing effectiveness, and adjusting accordingly–have continued.

We’ve persisted to deliver the change that was needed. We’ve refined our approach throughout, but we’ve never compromised on our vision or the ambitious goals that we set at the start. We’re starting to see the impact of the “science of delivery,” which Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, describes as fundamental to delivering development outcomes. The success in Punjab contributes to the evidence of what works.

For all the gains, Punjab’s education system remains far short of real quality. The progress is far from irreversible. Although we have moved with breathtaking speed, it is not fast enough. After this month’s elections, Punjab’s new leaders will need to continue what has been started for years to come. Yes, real change is a slog.

In the meantime there are three clear lessons for aid policy. First, the case for aid can be sustained only if every penny is spent well. Second, we know quite a bit, and are learning more, about the “science of delivery” required to deliver development aid effectively. Third, if we get the partnership for reform right with developing country governments, transferring the entire responsibility for development, including funding, onto their taxpayers will become possible as well as desirable.

On the new Ask CFR Experts feature today, I consider the question of whether the United States should continue economic aid to Egypt. “The answer,” I write, “is a resounding yes.” As I add, however:

…Washington is unlikely to increase outright economic aid substantially. Arguably, other forms of assistance, including increased foreign direct investment and trade, and technical and financial support for continued economic reform (particularly on transitioning away from costly and inefficient subsidies), stand to have a bigger positive impact on Egypt’s economy and democratic transition than more monetary aid to the Egyptian government.

You can read the full answer here.

Yesterday on his blog, CFR senior fellow John Campbell wrote about Brazil’s involvement in and assistance to Africa. As he argues:

Brazil’s expanding role in Africa is overshadowed in the international media by China and India’s larger role. (So, too, is South Africa’s role.) But, Brazil’s approach to Africa appears to be the more broadly based, with important political and developmental aspects, as well as economic.

You can read the full post here. The Development Channel has also been following the role of emerging donors through Emerging Voices posts and a Question of the Week series about China and Africa. Last month, CFR senior fellow Isobel Coleman analyzed the proposed BRICS development bank, a potentially important milestone for emerging donors.

Last week on my blog, I reviewed USAID’s Water and Development Strategy, focusing on the link between water and food security. As I write:

As the global population continues to climb toward 10 billion, and more people enjoy the higher caloric intake of middle class life, finding sustainable ways to improve agricultural productivity is increasingly important. As the USAID strategy makes clear, more careful water management will be a critical part of the solution.

You can read the full post here.

Last week a federal judge ruled that mentally disabled immigrants facing deportation have a right to representation in immigration proceedings, and ordered immigration courts in Arizona, California, and Washington to provide legal representation for mentally disabled immigrants if they cannot represent themselves.

The facts in Franco-Gonzalez v. Holder are disturbing. One of the plaintiffs had been detained without a hearing for more than five years, and many others for six months or more, because they are too mentally disabled to represent themselves in the court proceedings. Yet the government would not release them because of their suspected illegal status. And, as is too often true for poor defendants, the detainees could not afford to hire a lawyer. So they remained trapped, in indefinite and uncertain detention.

Until now, immigrants facing deportation, including, most troublingly, young children on their own and people with mental disabilities, have not had a right to counsel. Instead, they must represent themselves in complex and confusing immigration proceedings. The court ruling makes some incremental but important steps towards a more equitable system, at least for severely mentally disabled immigrants.

This topic is a bit far afield from usual Development Channel fare, but the ruling is a big deal, and has important implications for some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in the global economy. Indeed, in our meeting at the Council this week with Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, participants discussed the income and distributional consequences of the fact that capital is increasingly mobile across borders, while laborers (a.k.a. immigrants) are most definitively not. And the international human rights implications of indefinite detention without access to representation or a chance for one’s day in court are quite serious. Article 9 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Right (ICCR) requires that “anyone who is deprived of his liberty by arrest or detention shall be entitled to take proceedings before a court, in order that that court may decide without delay on the lawfulness of his detention and order his release if the detention is not lawful.” Indefinite detention of mentally disabled immigrants unfit to represent themselves at a hearing suggests to me a clear violation of U.S. international human rights commitments.

Plus, my sister, Alexa Lawson-Remer, is counsel on the case, so I was triply compelled to write about it.

The court ruling is a victory for human rights here in the United States. According to Alexa (an associate at the law firm of Sullivan & Cromwell, which helped litigate the case pro bono along with the ACLU, Public Counsel, the Northwest Immigrant Rights Project, and Mental Health Advocacy Services), “It is potentially the most significant decision for due process and equality before the law since the Supreme Court’s decision in Gideon v. Wainwright.” In Gideon v. Wainwright the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that everyone accused of a crime is entitled to a lawyer, and that the court must appoint counsel for the indigent. Gideon is widely acknowledged as a watershed legal decision to make real the principle that the law must be impartial and equitable in practice, not merely on paper. Suspected illegal immigrants are not covered by Gideon because they are confronting deportation, not criminal proceedings.

In the face of the impending court order in the case, this week the federal government issued a new policy that, in essence, applies the judge’s ruling nationwide—guaranteeing legal representation to mentally disabled immigrants facing deportation proceedings in every state in the union. The new federal policy was a direct response to the likely injunction in the case, sources close to the proceedings say.

The court ruling and new federal policy are an important watershed for human rights here at home. Nice work sis.

Examining the economic fallout of the Arab uprisings is critical as societies struggle to move past the upheaval and fight for a measure of stability and security. Unemployment rates in the region have climbed in the last two years: Egypt’s official unemployment rate is now 13 percent, with nearly 80 percent of the jobless holding either high school or university degrees. Unofficial figures put that rate much higher. Growth barely hit two percent in 2012, well under half its rate before the uprisings. In Tunisia growth is declining while frustration and hopelessness grow. Official unemployment shows the jobless rate reached 19 percent in May 2012, up six points in two years. As a Brookings Institution paper noted, “youth, between 15 and 30 years old, make about one-third of the labor force and three-quarters of the unemployed.” Their unemployment rate tops 30 percent.

Understanding, monitoring, and supporting the economic transitions of these countries is critical to the stability of both the region and the global economy.

A new IMF Working Paper on the “economics of political transition” notes that “past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.”

While much discussion about economic transition has focused on the Eastern European experience, the IMF notes that the Arab uprising countries are quite different. They are “characterized by intense political instability, which is manifest through changes in government and large-scale social unrest.” Reserves have shrunk and external current account deficits have worsened. For all the countries studied, including Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen, “actual output is now below 
potential, and unemployment rates have 
increased from already high levels.” These grim numbers are exacerbated by the risk of “spillovers” from Syria and already significant fiscal deficits.

So what can be done to reverse the declines and restore growth? The IMF notes that in the medium term Arab countries in transition face a slew of challenges: “weak external demand (especially from European trading partners), high food and fuel prices, and the need for sizable fiscal consolidation due to weak initial fiscal positions.” Policy actions can help, but weak governments now in power will find it tough to implement the often-painful measures required.

As the IMF writes:

But another IMF paper notes that the biggest driver of economic recovery in the transition period is one that is often hardest to achieve: good governance. When governance is sound, growth returns.

“The medium-term effect of political instability and social conflict on output growth is differentiated across countries, depending on their ability to implement reforms that improve governance within the first 2-3 years in the aftermath of an episode of conflict,” according to the paper. “More specifically, countries that improve their levels of governance after periods of conflict experience, over the medium-term, output growth that is significantly higher than in those countries that do not improve their governance.”

And that sparks a virtuous cycle.

“As populations see new governments deliver higher standards of living, this will also reduce the likelihood of a recurrence of political instability,” write the authors of the first paper.