What the U.S. Should Not Do: Linger
Especially if Obama wins, he must very quickly name a senior representative to go the Middle East. It will set back U.S. interests dramatically if he waits to put his cabinet in place, put a senior staff in place, think about a representative and only then, months or a year later establish a presence. This will be made ever harder by the pull of the domestic economic challenges.
The Middle East is the center of gravity for America’s most immediate and serious challenges. Secretaries of State from James Baker to Madeleine Albright to the foreign policy team of George W. Bush have made the mistake of thinking ‘when they are ready for peace here’s the number for the White House.’ America can’t afford to wait. An immediate presence is necessary. As President Clinton has said, as recorded in Bob Woodward’s new book, even when we just fumble around (i.e., when we engage), things get better. We need to be there, and fast.
This is especially true for an Obama administration. As one very well placed Saudi told me “expectations are unreasonably high… There is no way an Obama administration can live up to expectations. He and his team will be met with very good will. They will need it in this turbulent time. To smoothly manage the transition from expectations to reality, there needs to be a trip out to the region, and fast.
This is also true because of the situation in Iraq. We will need to convey steadiness there. There is some concern that Obama won’t be as invested in Iraq as Bush. There would be good reason to keep Secretary Gates steadily at the helm of Defense while other positions are being filled first. This would convey steadiness and resolve. Another don’t is thus, don’t rashly change teams without being sure who the successors are.
Don’t move too fast on engaging Iran. It is right to do this, and everyone is expecting it, but a new President should make sure all his ducks are in a row before moving in this direction.
Finally, do stop in Israel and then meet with Palestinians. Tzipi Livni can use the visit to bolster her position vis-a-vis Bibi Netanyahu.
So don’t linger in getting to the region, and once out there begin to sow the seeds for engagement with Iran, (already established by Bush) but that can wait for the new dust of an incoming administration to settle. Meeting with existing partners cannot.
