Posted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
The greatest challenge of European monetary union is devising a single monetary policy for a large grouping of countries facing divergent economic conditions. As these charts show, this challenge has been thrust to the fore since 2008, as eurozone employment conditions have diverged dramatically across member countries. Whereas the effectiveness of independent monetary policy as a tool for managing employment in smaller open economies is much debated among economists, the political challenge facing the European Central Bank in having to justify its policy decisions under current conditions is clear.
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Posted in 2008/9 Downturn, Central Banks, Europe | 0 Comments »
Posted on Monday, October 26th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Near zero T-bill yields throughout 2009 is keeping U.S. debt service low even though the amount of outstanding debt continues to rise. A forecast increase in U.S. interest rates, along with growth in the amount of debt, will lift interest expenses sharply over the next ten years. In fact, as this chart shows, interest payments are projected to surpass defense spending by 2017. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which collects data back to 1929, interest payments have never surpassed defense spending.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 1 Comment »
Posted on Monday, October 19th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
China has accumulated a massive stock of U.S. dollar reserves in recent years. Statements of concern from China regarding the risk that U.S. economic policy might undermine the future purchasing power of these assets has fuelled the market’s concern that China may shift away from dollar purchases. Yet the chart shows that over the 12 months ending in July 2009 China accumulated more dollar-denominated assets, mainly U.S. Treasuries, than foreign assets in total. Despite its rhetoric, China has thus far taken no actions to wean itself off of the dollar.
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Posted in Capital Flows, China, Currencies | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, October 7th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
This chart shows who financed the massive amounts of debt that the U.S. government issued in the first half of 2009. The total net issuance of treasuries and agencies is shown on the left, and economic sectors are ordered from left to right by the size of their total purchases. Given the federal backing of the GSEs – government sponsored entities such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae – it is best to look at the sum of treasuries and agencies rather than treasury issuance alone. Through the first two quarters of 2009, issuance has been financed primarily by official buyers. Official buyers often have motivations other than profit. The Federal Reserve is buying debt as a part of its quantitative easing program, while some foreign central banks are accumulating debt as a function of their currency policy. The Federal Reserve plans to slow and then stop its purchases by the end of the first quarter of 2010. This raises the question of who will replace this source of demand, and at what price.
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Posted in Capital Flows, Central Banks, U.S. | 8 Comments »
Posted on Monday, September 28th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
This chart shows the U.S. federal gross debt issuance, the sum of debt refinancing and fiscal deficits, as a percentage of GDP. The U.S. Treasury must issue debt to finance expenditures in excess of receipts as well as to pay off debts that are due. Although it is often assumed that debtholders will recycle their capital into new debt, they have no obligation to do so. Concerns about the level of federal debt and the size of future deficits may make creditors reconsider their investment choices. If many creditors opt out of the U.S. treasury market as their bonds mature, the U.S. Treasury may have a difficult time finding buyers for the unprecedented level of issuance. This would create a complicated trade-off for the Federal Reserve between higher interest rates, which may smother a budding recovery, and monetizing the debt, which may stoke inflation and pose a serious risk to the dollar.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 0 Comments »
