Benn Steil

Geo-Graphics

A graphical take on geoeconomic issues, with links to the news and expert commentary.

Why China Should Revalue

by Monday, October 25, 2010

China will hit a “growth wall” within the next three years, according to NYU economist Nouriel Roubini. The country’s reliance on fueling GDP growth through exports is unsustainable. He argues that China needs to revalue its currency so as to allow a transition from export-led to domestic demand-led growth. “The real income of households is going to increase, and they’re going to consume more. You export less and you consume more.” Is he right? Though there are more ways than one to skin this cat – domestic reforms that would facilitate faster rising Chinese wages, as advocated by Stanford economist Ronald McKinnon, are one way to fuel greater household spending – the data do indicate that Roubini is correct. As this week’s Geo-Graphic shows, when the renminbi appreciated significantly between 2005 and 2008 Chinese export growth slowed and household spending growth rose. This trend reversed after the pace of appreciation subsequently fell dramatically. This suggests that the Chinese government’s most recent five year development plan, which states that the government “must persist in the strategy of expanding domestic demand and maintaining steady and relatively fast development,” should include currency revaluation as a component policy element. Read more »

Tilting Turkish Trade

by Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Turkey’s exports to the Middle East have grown substantially over the last three years, particularly to Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Iran. In tandem, its share of exports directed to the European Union has declined. This shift is being driven primarily by the faster growth of Turkey’s Middle Eastern trading partners, but also by a conscious Turkish political decision to cultivate such ties. Prime Minister Erdogan recently said he expected a proposed preferential trade agreement with Iran to lead to a tripling of bilateral trade within five years. While the EU remains a major Turkish trade partner, its declining relative economic importance to Turkey can be expected to weaken its political influence over the country. Read more »