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Even Slowing China Is Fueling Global Growth

by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
January 30, 2012


China’s economy slowed from a growth rate of 10.3% in 2010 to 9.5% in 2011 (and a 2000s peak of 14.2% in 2007), prompting fears that China could trigger a global slowdown.  Yet at 10% of world output, 2.5 times what it was in 2001, the Chinese economy is now so large that it will continue to make a significantly rising contribution to global growth even if its own growth rate continues to fall off moderately.

Haass: China’s Greatest Threat Is Internal
Mallaby: Conflict and Confusion: China’s Currency Policy
Foreign Affairs: The Inevitable Superpower
Working Papers: The Future of the International Monetary System and the Role of the Renminbi

Post a Comment 3 Comments

  • Posted by César Carrasco

    It could be real difficult to obtain a good and real growth with out democracy and good salaries to the main part of the poor population of this country.

  • Posted by Johannes

    Exactly, César. If believe that without firm democratic reforms and thus a maintenance of their autocratic policies, China will remain dependent on Western innovations, creativity, technology… And by this ‘world dominance’ will not be attained. Next, one can ask would happen if China would pursue a more democratic path? Personally, I believe that the Influence of labour unions will rise, together a rise in wages, together with a rise in production costs and prices for both goods, services and natural ressources, resulting in… an (dramatic) economic setback? a new (even more dramatic) economic crisis?

  • Posted by Fırat

    I balieve that the main reason of poverty is not the single party rule. Actually single party rules can help the poor counties’ economic development, since populist policies and extravagant state expenditures really harms even the rich counties’ economies. The poverty problem can be solved if and only if China performs robust growth which they’re doing pretty much for decades. China has a huge GDP but if we look at the GDP per capita it’s quite low and no match with the rich nations, even with many developing ones like Russia. I guess there is no room for populist policies and arbitrary government spendings in a country with such a position. It’s impossible to just raise the salaries and sit back and enjoy the welfare. The main problem is, the world has limited resources and a rich China means the “historically” rich nations will take a smaller share from that sources.

    Besides if one considers science and technology as an engineer I would say China has an ongoing huge impact on development of theoretical science. They just don’t have the historical industrial know-how to package this technology, produce and sell it. That’s why they do buy western companies with their know-how and business network. I don’t want to trivialize the democracy and it’s advantages to nations, but I also would like to give a chance to a rational authoritatian single party rule which actually might work in future. Of course as China gets richer if that dress becomes too tight for them the Chinese people would change that dress and wear a multi-party democracy dress, but if one says that is the only way for them to get rich I wouldn’t agree with that.

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