Benn Steil

Geo-Graphics

A graphical take on geoeconomic issues, with links to the news and expert commentary.

Gloomy Jobs Picture Is off the Fed’s Charts

by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies Monday, June 18, 2012
Unemployment Projections

When the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) last met in April, the unemployment rate was on a declining path – having fallen to 8.2% in March from 9.1% the previous August.  Against this backdrop, the Committee was modestly sanguine on prospects for job growth going forward.  “The unemployment rate will decline gradually,” it predicted, “towards levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate,” without need for new monetary stimulus measures. Read more »

Can Household Risk-Aversion Measures Predict Fed Policy?

by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies Thursday, June 14, 2012
risk aversion

The so-called Taylor Rule in monetary policy suggests how the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates based on movements in inflation and economic output.  Although the Fed has never explicitly followed such a rule, it described fairly well the path of interest rate policy under much of Alan Greenspan’s tenure as chairman. Read more »