On September 21st the Fed announced that it would be selling $400 billion in short-term Treasurys and buying $400 billion in longer-term Treasurys to replace them – a maneuver titled “Operation Twist.” Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart explained what it would mean for the economy: “It means lower interest rates – a lower cost of borrowing – across a whole spectrum of loan maturities.” Is he right? Well, China, Russia, and Brazil have conducted their own version of Operation Twist over the past several years, replacing roughly $330 billion in short-term Treasurys with long-term ones. The 10-year Treasury rate went sideways over that period, as shown in the figure above. Whereas the BRIC* Twist may have put some modest downward pressure on longer-term rates, other factors overwhelmed it. Don’t expect much from the Fed’s similar-sized version.

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The U.S. is increasing its military and civilian presence in Afghanistan as part of the Obama administration’s efforts to bring stability to the region and reduce the threat of terrorism at home. Economic growth is critical for building a stable society in a war-torn country. Although Afghanistan’s economy has grown by 20 percent annually since 2002, this growth has largely been driven by foreign aid. Aid has risen by 25 percent annually since 2002, increasing from 32 percent of GDP in 2002 to 42 percent in 2008. These massive aid inflows have fueled corruption, and leave the economy exposed to destabilizing shocks once aid is withdrawn. Building a functional, self-sustaining Afghan economy is therefore vital to the success of the U.S. and coalition mission in the country. Read more »

The credit risk of oil exporting countries such as Venezuela and Russia tends to move with the price of oil. As a country’s oil export revenue improves, so does its ability to pay its debts. Recently, however, Venezuela’s CDS spreads have increased even while the price of oil has been stable. The market’s perception of an increased risk of default coincides with the Venezuelan government’s move to close banks representing 8% of the country’s deposits. On Tuesday December 15th the Venezuelan National Assembly passed a law increasing depositors’ insurance in an effort to prevent a run on the banks. Problems in the financial sector have become the primary driver of Venezuelan sovereign credit risk. Read more »

With the United States and other developed countries no longer serving as the engine of global demand growth, a new source of growth is needed. In the past few years, emerging markets have been an important source of global demand growth. The IMF expects this trend to continue, with demand in the emerging world recovering faster than demand in the advanced economies. Read more »

Brazil, Russia, India, and China have increased their holdings of foreign exchange reserves significantly over the last decade. But China stands out when it comes to financing the United States. China’s holdings of U.S. financial assets have increased dramatically since 2000. Brazil and Russia have also significantly increased their holdings of U.S. financial assets, but their aggregate increase is still small relative to that of China’s. Read more »