The size of the market for commercial paper in the U.S. has fallen dramatically since its peak in July 2007. After the disruptions of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) crisis in August 2007 and the Lehman bankruptcy, the Federal Reserve created a commercial paper funding facility to restore liquidity. However the market for commercial paper has continued to shrink in 2009 straining financial intermediaries who have relied on the market for funding.
Some assets on the Fed’s balance sheet are short-term credits than could be withdrawn easily if confidence in financial institutions returns, but the Fed has also been buying longer term assets that are harder to unwind. Should the Fed keep buying assets to signal its determination to fight deflation, or does the Fed need to think about how to unwind some of the programs to demonstrate that the expansion of its balance sheet won’t lead to inflation?
The Fed recently reaffirmed its determination to expand its balance sheet. The crisis has already driven it to take on risky assets such as agency bonds and commercial paper. It has also lent to weak financial institutions, and is expected to participate in the Treasury’s public-private partnership to buy toxic assets. The expansion has averted a crippling credit contraction. But the Fed could lose money by taking on risk.
A few years ago, countries were seeking to expand their financial sector (move toward the left in the chart) in order to accelerate economic growth. But the crisis has made states more aware of the economic and political risks associated with over-sized banks, as demonstrated by the crisis in Iceland. The crisis has also illustrated the interdependence of the world banking system and the costs of letting foreign banks fail, highlighting the importance of international regulation. The following articles discuss how best to fix finance—through national regulation or international coordination.
Congressional hearings have focused on the question of whether credit is being extended and by whom. Our chart shows why this question matters. The black and red lines show the tight correlation between home price appreciation and mortgage credit growth. The shaded areas show, through the 3rd quarter, that the government is extending while banks and the securities market are contracting home mortgage credit.
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