Posted on Monday, November 16th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
The United States is rapidly approaching its legal debt limit of just over $12 trillion. As of September 2009, U.S. debt stood at $11.9 trillion. As these charts indicate, Congress has raised the limit four times in the past three years, as the need for financing has risen. Some hope that the limit will encourage fiscal responsibility. Others fear that this exercise raises the risk of a technical default, as nearly occurred in 1995, which would disrupt markets and potentially impose severe costs on a struggling economy.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 0 Comments »
Posted on Monday, October 26th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Near zero T-bill yields throughout 2009 is keeping U.S. debt service low even though the amount of outstanding debt continues to rise. A forecast increase in U.S. interest rates, along with growth in the amount of debt, will lift interest expenses sharply over the next ten years. In fact, as this chart shows, interest payments are projected to surpass defense spending by 2017. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which collects data back to 1929, interest payments have never surpassed defense spending.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 3 Comments »
Posted on Monday, September 28th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
This chart shows the U.S. federal gross debt issuance, the sum of debt refinancing and fiscal deficits, as a percentage of GDP. The U.S. Treasury must issue debt to finance expenditures in excess of receipts as well as to pay off debts that are due. Although it is often assumed that debtholders will recycle their capital into new debt, they have no obligation to do so. Concerns about the level of federal debt and the size of future deficits may make creditors reconsider their investment choices. If many creditors opt out of the U.S. treasury market as their bonds mature, the U.S. Treasury may have a difficult time finding buyers for the unprecedented level of issuance. This would create a complicated trade-off for the Federal Reserve between higher interest rates, which may smother a budding recovery, and monetizing the debt, which may stoke inflation and pose a serious risk to the dollar.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 0 Comments »
Posted on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
The U.S. federal deficit has increased significantly since the start of the recession, as tax revenues have fallen and spending has increased. But the trade deficit has actually shrunk, reaching its lowest level for ten years in May. So while the risks associated with dependence on external financing have declined, there are new risks stemming from increased fiscal borrowing.
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Posted in Fiscal Policy, Trade, U.S. | 0 Comments »
Posted on Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009
By the Center for Geoeconomic Studies
U.S. government borrowing has grown substantially since the start of the economic crisis. Many fear that this trend will diminish U.S. power relative to other countries, particularly large creditor countries such as China. But the sources of borrowing have changed as well. More of the financing is now coming from domestic rather than foreign sources. What role does the level and source of borrowing play in determining relative power?
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Posted in Capital Flows, Fiscal Policy, U.S. | 3 Comments »
