Showing posts for "Charts"
The most recent Pew Survey on European attitudes (summary table below) shows that support for the European integration project is dropping. My colleagues at CFR are far more able than I am to address the broader political ramifications of this shift. A few points though on the link between economic growth, public opinion, and support for the European reform agenda.
Does the large drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate justify a monetary policy that is easier, for longer, than suggested by our models or the Fed’s current description of its policy? Chris Erceg and Andy Levin, two senior researchers at the Fed now on leave at the IMF, argue yes. Their analysis will provide fuel to the monetary policy doves who argue the Fed is failing to meet its employment mandate, and points to a battle ahead. But it doesn’t really settle questions about whether monetary policy is an effective tool for bringing these workers back into the work force, or whether it can be done without creating inflationary pressure (which speaks to other leg of the Fed’s mandate). Still, their paper is an important read.
I’d like to think that the ECB will surprise us tomorrow with a package that includes both a rate cut and measures to increase the flow of credit to the periphery. That could produce a meaningful easing of financial conditions and a weakening of the euro, both of which are constructive for euro-area growth.
The reasons why employment has lagged in the recovery remains a central challenge for macro policymakers, influencing the fiscal debate as well as figuring prominently in Federal Reserve justification for its current unorthodox policies. My colleague Dinah Walker points out a growing body of evidence that the problem of long-term unemployment is at the heart of the puzzle.
Cyprus has reached a tentative agreement with the IMF-EU-ECB team (Troika) on the economic program that will be backed by its €10 billion rescue package. The IMF will put €1 billion, small in absolute terms and relative to the one-third share that it has had in most of its European programs but a very high share (563 percent) of Cyprus’ contribution, or quota. The plan is for European political approval in coming days, followed by legislative approval where needed during the course of April, and IMF Board approval in early May. If Cyprus passes all the prior actions required in the program, it could get the first drawing on the package in mid-May, well ahead of their early June debt maturities.
Does today feel different? Did the earth shake? Packing your lunch rather than buy out?
Welcome to the sequester.
Data shows that monetary financial institution (MFI) loans to the eurozone private sector is contracting, most notably in peripheral countries. (Data source: European Central Bank http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again downgraded its outlook, reducing its forecast for global growth by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5 percent this year and 4.1 percent next year. For Europe, in particular, there is not much good news: Read more »
My colleague Dinah Walker has just published charts comparing the US recovery to its predecessors, which have been updated to include today’s revised third quarter data. Two points:
Macro and Markets examines the forces influencing the global economy, macroeconomic policies, and financial markets.
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