The IMF program for Cyprus has been released (here and here).  Growth is projected to fall 13 percent over the next two years, though the discussion of risks implicitly acknowledges that a larger decline is likely (many private analysts expect a decline of 15 percent this year alone).  Given that the program contains 6.6 percent of fiscal consolidation measures during 2013-14, and a major deleveraging of the financial system is underway, skepticism is warranted.  The Fund also acknowledges that should these downside risks materialize, or program implementation slip, government debt (which is forecast to peak at 126 percent of GDP in 2015) becomes unsustainable. The programs have buffers, but financing looks inadequate.  Coming after a negotiation where the Troika publicly promoted one financing gap (17 billion euros) knowing that the actual gap was far larger (shortly after agreement on the program, the gap was revised to 23 billion euros) further undermines confidence in these projections.  The next review, slated for September 15, likely will have to confront these issues.

Cyprus today passed the €10 billion EU-IMF bailout deal by a 29 to 27 vote, so it will receive its first installment of aid next month.  Capital controls (though eased a bit) will remain in place until at least the fall, when the bank restructuring is completed.  New financing gaps are likely to emerge quickly, as the economic assumptions still look too rosy, but the risk of default has diminished for now.

The IMF’s statement today on capital controls (here and here) on the surface would seem to be a substantial shift towards a more accommodating position on their use, and is drawing attention.

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We finally have a financing deal for Greece.  For those who haven’t been following the blow-by-blow, a summary is below, or you can read the official announcement.

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