Today I put out my April Global Economics Monthly, discussing the prospect of intensified sanctions against Russia. It’s an issue that requires a much better effort at quantification than I have seen to date. Still, I think that we can draw a number of tentative conclusions from the debate so far:
A deal that would end the violence in Ukraine appears to be holding. It would produce early elections, a return to the 2004 constitution, and a national unity government. It would also set the stage for an urgent western effort to provide financing supported by an IMF program. Good news on the politics, though, does not equate to good news on the economy.