Robert Kahn

Macro and Markets

Robert Kahn analyzes economic policies for an integrated world.

Posts by Category

Showing posts for "Uncategorized"

France After the Election: What Next for Economic Policy in Europe?

by Robert Kahn
Marine Le Pen celebrates after early results in the first round of 2017 French presidential election, in Henin-Beaumont. REUTERS/Charles Platiau

French election results show Emmanuel Macron in first place with 23.9 percent of the vote and Marine Le Pen in second with 21.4 percent, setting the stage for a run-off election on May 7. Early polls show a comfortable edge for Macron, the pro-E.U. former economy minister who ran on a campaign of ambitious economic reform including labor market deregulation and lower corporate taxes (though there will be questions about where supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon will land, or whether they will vote at all). While the result was expected, markets had become quite jittery in recent days and, unsurprisingly, rallied as results came in. The euro this morning is 2 percent stronger, reaching a five-month high at 1.09 to the dollar, and gold as well as other safe-haven investments have sold off. Investors are clearly relieved with the result that put Macron into the second round. But political risk is likely to remain an endemic feature in European and global markets, and European policymakers face a full calendar of challenges over the course of the year without a compelling vision about how to address the populist pressures sweeping the region.

Read more »

The President’s Economic Agenda: the Fight Begins

by Robert Kahn

President Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress last night highlighted the central economic themes that animated his campaign: a tougher policy on immigration and trade, a focus on infrastructure, broad deregulation, “massive” tax relief and the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. The unifying theme was economic nationalism and renewal.

Read more »

The President’s (Economic) Inbox

by Robert Kahn

The election of Donald Trump creates extraordinary uncertainty about the future course of U.S. economic policy. Markets don’t like extreme unknowns, and there are valid reasons to fear that Trump’s policy proposals on trade and our economic alliances would be seriously disruptive to the global economy. Global stocks fell sharply when signs of a Trump victory emerged Tuesday, but by mid afternoon Wednesday U.S. stocks were up as markets found their footing on hopes of fiscal stimulus.  Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields were up and the Mexican peso weakened. It is reasonable to expect that substantial market volatility will be the norm in coming weeks.

Read more »