The U.S. Energy Information Adminstration (EIA) published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. This report is one of three official monthly sources of data and forecasts that energy analysts often look to in order to understand market conditions. (The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) release similar reports with their own numbers.) Read more »

I was worried that my defense of speculation in the oil market, published this week on ForeignAffairs.com, was late to the game, but my timing turned out to be right on. Just yesterday, an op-ed appeared in the New York Times by Joseph P. Kennedy arguing that “pure” speculators should be “banned from the world’s commodity exchanges.” Read more »

In a post last Thursday, I identified four reasons for skepticism about a new IHS report that estimated the impact on energy markets of the currently proposed implementation of the Volcker rule. Kurt Barrow, Vice President of IHS Purvin & Gertz and lead author of the IHS report, has graciously penned the following guest post addressing the questions I raised. I may comment further on a few of the points below in another post. Read more »

A new study out yesterday claims that the Volcker rule, intended to push proprietary trading out of the banks, could end up slamming the U.S. energy sector, slashing two billion cubic feet a day off natural gas production and costing two hundred thousand jobs. The alarming report, commissioned by Morgan Stanley and written by the consultancy IHS, is making waves. I am, to put it mildly, not convinced. Read more »

Anticipation is heating up around another release of oil and petroleum products from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), likely in coordination with the United Kingdom, France, and possibly others. Read more »

Given how oil is back in the media spotlight and as oil markets brace for the implementation of the Iranian oil embargo, it seems as good a time as any to revisit the question of high oil prices and their impact on the U.S. economy (as well as revitalize my hitherto moribund blog output), discussed at length in this post. Read more »

For many people, innovation is pretty much synonymous with technology. But when it comes to dealing with our energy and climate problems, we’re going to need innovation on other fronts. In particular, we’re going to need new business models that fit with clean energy. One key part of that that I keep coming back to in my thinking is finance. Read more »

I have a short piece up at CFR.org on the international implications of the climate bill collapse. Here’s the conclusion:

“The United States spent the better part of the last decade being pilloried for its lack of action on climate. The last year and a half has seen a new attitude from much of the rest of the world. International observers have watched the U.S. political debate with growing skepticism over whether Washington could ever deliver cap-and-trade, but they have still held out hope. The sharp setback to the Senate’s cap-and-trade efforts on July 22 means that the honeymoon for U.S. climate diplomacy is over.” Read more »

A new report out from The Pew Charitable Trusts says that China is now the global leader in clean energy investment. There’s some useful data in the report, which makes it worth a read, but it doesn’t support the overwrought conclusions that many have been drawing from it. Read more »

I’ve been in London since Sunday, talking to people about climate policy (and about the Iranian nuclear program). One topic that’s come up repeatedly is the UK’s annual Budget, which was announced today, with a new Green Bank as a centerpiece. The politics of climate policy here are a world apart from those in the United States – I’ve been meeting with senior people from government, the (Conservative) opposition, and NGOs, and I’m struck by the fact that everyone claims that the idea is theirs. Read more »