The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the expiration of the U.S. debt ceiling suspension, the African Union summit in Ethiopia, and the eleventh anniversary of East Timor’s independence.

The highlights:

• The suspension of the national debt ceiling that Congress and the White House agreed to in January expires this week. Two years ago an impasse over raising the debt ceiling was broken only at the last moment, and the standoff resulted in Standard & Poor’s downgrading the U.S. government’s AAA rating. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says that the federal government will continue to be able to borrow “until at least after Labor Day.” Washington can put off the day of reckoning until summer’s end partly because the Treasury can employ a variety of “extraordinary measures” to avoid hitting the ceiling. But it’s also because the U.S. economy is picking up steam, and as a result, so are federal tax revenues. The Congressional Budget Office now projects that the federal deficit will be $642 billion in FY13. That’s down $200 billion from what CBO projected in February, and it’s down more than half from the highs reached during the financial crisis.
• The African Union summit begins this Sunday in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and it will run through May 27. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to attend. The summit will mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the Organization of African Unity, the predecessor to the African Union. The meeting’s theme is the “Year of Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance.” The news coming out Africa is mixed. On the one hand, many African countries are experiencing strong economic growth, and as a result, attracting increased interest from both China and the United States. On the other hand, countries like Nigeria and Mali are buffeted by extremist violence and the threat of war between Sudan and South Sudan persists.
• East Timor, or Timor-Leste if you prefer, celebrates its eleventh independence day next week. The country first won its independence from Portugal in 1975 after 400 years of colonial rule. It was invaded almost immediately by Indonesia, and only won its independence back in 2002. East Timor’s economy has been booming in recent years; The Economist rates it the world’s 6th fastest growing economy in 2013. A main driver of growth is oil. Despite this good news, the country, which is home to 1.2 million people and is the size of Connecticut, faces many economic and political challenges. Forty percent of East Timorese live in poverty, and the unemployment rate is near 20 percent. The political violence that rocked East Timor in 2006 has not returned, but significant political tensions remain.
• Bob’s Figure of the Week is Nawaz Sharif. My Figure of the Week is six. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.

For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out:

U.S. debt ceiling: CFR.org has a backgrounder on the debt ceiling. CNBC reports on Treasury Secretary Jack Lew’s announcement that the United States will not reach the debt ceiling until Labor Day. Reuters describes the “emergency cash measures” that will be used by the U.S. Treasury after this weekend. The New York Times explain the legislation that House Republicans passed last week prioritizing debt payments.

African Union summit: The BBC profiles the African Union. The African Union website marks the fiftieth anniversary of the OAU and explains why 2013 is the “Year of Pan Africanism and African Renaissance.” Global Post reports that John Kerry will attend the African Union summit and that the relationship between African “powerhouses” South Africa and Nigeria may be improving.

East Timor’s eleventh anniversary: The U.S. Department of State summarizes U.S. relations with East Timor. The Economist ranks East Timor as the sixth fastest growing economy in 2013. ABC News (Australia) reports on East Timor’s tenth anniversary celebration and summarizes East Timor’s recent history. Frank Brennan argues that the time has come to settle the territorial dispute between Australia and East Timor.

You finally land the job you have long coveted. But many of your colleagues dislike you, and the task you have been given may be undoable. That’s the situation that Winston Churchill found himself in seventy-three years ago today. He responded with a speech that is regarded as one of the greatest ever delivered in the English language—and one that helped rally his country at one of its darkest moments.

Churchill was offered the prime ministership on May 10, 1940. His predecessor, Neville Chamberlain, had resigned after it became clear that he had lost the confidence of his fellow Conservative Party members. Chamberlain had championed the appeasement policy that was supposed to preserve peace in Europe. It had the opposite effect, emboldening rather than satisfying Adolf Hitler.

Churchill had been a biting critic of Chamberlain’s appeasement policy, even though he too was a Conservative. Churchill’s unrelenting criticism had angered many of his fellow Tories. They were not celebrating his elevation to prime minister; some privately expected (and perhaps hoped) to see him fail.

But Churchill’s domestic political difficulties paled in comparison to Britain’s foreign policy problems. The so-called Phony War that had prevailed in Europe since Germany invaded Poland the previous September had ended in April. Denmark and Norway had fallen to the Nazis. On May 10 the German army invaded France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

Faced with this peril, Churchill addressed Parliament for the first time as prime minister on May 13. He spoke for just five minutes. His speech included these riveting lines:

I would say to the House as I said to ministers who have joined this government, I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat. We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and suffering.

You ask, what is our policy? I say it is to wage war by land, sea, and air. War with all our might and with all the strength God has given us, and to wage war against a monstrous tyranny never surpassed in the dark and lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy.

You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word. It is victory. Victory at all costs – Victory in spite of all terrors – Victory, however long and hard the road may be, for without victory there is no survival.

Let that be realized. No survival for the British Empire, no survival for all that the British Empire has stood for, no survival for the urge, the impulse of the ages, that mankind shall move forward toward his goal.

If Hollywood had staged the scene, Churchill’s defiant words would have been met with thunderous applause. But life seldom follows Hollywood scripts. Few MPs clapped. Many of Churchill’s fellow Tories grumbled. They still preferred Chamberlain.

No one outside of Parliament heard the speech live; BBC reports merely summarized it. Churchill’s first radio address to the nation would not come until May 19. It would take days for word of the speech to seep out into the broader public. A version of the speech was eventually recorded for broadcast. Disagreement exists as to whether Churchill recorded the speech himself. Some experts argue that Norman Shelley, a BBC actor, taped the speech because Churchill was too busy to do it himself.

Historians note that the line about “blood, toil, tears, and sweat” wasn’t entirely original. Churchill likely took it from Giuseppe Garibaldi, the nineteenth century Italian revolutionary who once rallied his troops by saying he could only offer them “hunger, forced marches, battles and death.” But genius often lies in borrowing from the past and reinventing it for today. That gift may be why Churchill remains the only politician ever to win the Nobel Prize in Literature.

Churchill’s promise that he could offer only “blood, toil, tears, and sweat” was sadly accurate. As he was speaking, the German army was crossing the River Meuse into Sedan. France fell just six weeks later. With the United States still clinging to its neutrality, Britain was left to battle Nazi Germany alone. In the Battle of Britain that lasted throughout the summer of 1940, the Luftwaffe devastated many British cities. Blood and tears flowed freely.

But Britain survived its darkest hour, in good part because of Churchill’s determination. So it is fitting that last month the Bank of England announced that the “blood, toil, tears and sweat” quote will appear alongside the portrait of Winston Churchill on Britain’s new five pound notes.

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s trip to Washington, Israel’s National Day, Palestine’s al-Nakba, the Arctic Council meeting, and the Cannes Film Festival.

The highlights:

• Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meets with President Obama in Washington on May 16. During his visit to Israel two months ago, Obama helped broker an Israeli apology for the 2010 Israeli military raid on a Turkish flotilla bound for Gaza. That raid killed nine Turks and one American. Obama has long urged renewed cooperation between Turkey and Israel—both important U.S. allies—and he will undoubtedly make that pitch again when he meets with Erdoğan. But the two men will have plenty of other things to talk about as well, including Syria’s civil war, Iran’s nuclear program, and Iraq’s renewed sectarian violence. For Washington, all three issues are pressing geo-strategic problems; for Ankara they are all immediate neighborhood dangers.
• Israelis will celebrate the sixty-fifth anniversary of statehood on Tuesday, May 14. The very next day Palestinians will mark al-Nakba, literally “the Day of the Catastrophe,” to commemorate the exodus of Palestinians following Israel’s independence. Those dueling narratives are what Secretary of State John Kerry is trying to bridge when he returns to the Middle East later this month for his fourth trip to the region this year. Kerry has warned that “we are working with a short timespan” in the bid to rejuvenate the peace process. It is far from clear, however, that the conditions on the ground are ripe for a diplomatic breakthrough.
• The Arctic Council’s biennial ministerial meeting convenes next week in an appropriate setting, north of the Arctic Circle in Kiruna, Sweden. Some three hundred people are expected to attend, including ministers from the eight Arctic states (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States), indigenous peoples, and delegates from the six official observer countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom). You might think that the Arctic Council is a sleepy group, but it is taking on increased prominence as the loss of Arctic ice accelerates. The European Union, China, and India are all seeking to attain official observer status. It is easy to see why. The Arctic will likely soon be open to commercial shipping, the target of oil and gas exploration, and a potential source of bitter territorial disputes about which countries own what. The stakes for the United States are high.
• The Cannes Film Festival kicks off next week. Famed American director Steven Spielberg will chair the jury that will award the festival’s prestigious Palme d’Or prize. This year’s line-up is truly international, with films from Chad, China, Mexico, and Iran among the nineteen movies competing for top honors. The competition will not only enable some little known film makers to gain a bigger audience, it will also help protect and promote freedom of expression in countries that all too often squash it.
• Bob’s Figure of the Week is 900. My Figure of the Week is Park Geun-hye. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.

For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out:

Erdoğan visits Washington: Steven Cook writes that there are significant differences between Erdoğan and Obama’s interests in Iraq and Syria. Al-Monitor predicts that Erdoğan will pressure Obama to arm Syrian rebels. The Associated Press reports that the United States is committing $100 million in humanitarian aid for the Syrian conflict. The New York Times reports on talks between Israel and Turkey to settle a compensation dispute over the 2010 flotilla raid.

Israel National Day and Palestinian al-Nakba: Al-Jazeera reports that Secretary Kerry is seeking to revive peace talks between Israel and Palestine and has a special video series on al-Nakba. Al-Monitor suggests that the Arab League can contribute to the peace process. The Washington Post writes that China’s desire to become involved in the peace process may be a good thing.

Arctic Council meeting: CFR.org provides background on the changes in the Arctic region. Brookings has video of a discussion on energy, indigenous communities, and the Arctic Council. Barents Observer writes that China is seeking observer status with the Arctic Council.

Cannes Film Festival: The official Cannes Film Festival website provides the latest updates on this year’s festival and information on festival history. Forbes explains how the festival works. The Atlantic writes what to expect from the Cannes jury led by Steven Spielberg.

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico and Costa Rica, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s trip to Russia, and rising tensions in the East China Sea.

The highlights:

• President Obama is scheduled to take a three-day trip to Mexico and Costa Rica starting next Thursday. The White House says the trip is intended to “reinforce the deep cultural, familial, and economic ties that so many Americans share with Mexico and Central America.” The Mexico visit is a standard bilateral that will feature one-on-one conversations with Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto. The Costa Rica stop will be a multilateral meet-and-greet with Central American heads of state. They are gathering for the Central American Integration System (SICA) summit, which was founded in 1991 as “the institutional framework of regional integration in Central America.” In both Mexico and Costa Rica immigration and economics will top the agenda. Obama had hoped to have good news to deliver on the immigration front, but the prospects remain uncertain that an immigration bill will make it through Congress this year.
• Obama in not the only world leader traveling next week. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is heading to Russia. It is the first official visit by a Japanese prime minister to Moscow in a decade. Abe will be leading a large delegation of Japanese business executives in a bid to improve economic ties between the two countries. Lurking in the background of the trip, however, is the two countries’ longstanding territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands. Russia seized the four southernmost Kuril islands, which it had previously ceded to Japan, in the waning days of World War II. Japan has not given up hope of getting the islands back, and it is one reason that Japan and Russia have never signed a formal peace treaty ending their World War II hostilities. The fact that the Kurils sit in the middle of rich fishing grounds and atop potentially significant mineral deposits has only hardened the two competing sovereignty claims, which aren’t likely to be reconciled on this trip.
• While Abe is in Moscow, part of his focus will be on Beijing. Tensions between Japan and China spiked this week after Beijing sent eight government ships into the contested seas around the Senkaku (if you are Japanese) or Diaoyu (if you are Chinese) Islands. Abe responded by vowing to use force if China attempted to land troops on the islands. The spat has presented the White House with difficult diplomatic waters to navigate. It has to find a way to deter but not antagonize Beijing, and reassure but not encourage Tokyo. Easier said than done.
• Bob’s Figure of the Week is 93. My Figure of the Week is Enrico Letta. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.

For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out:

Obama’s Trip to Mexico and Costa Rica: In the Washington Post, Enrique Peña Nieto explains his vision for U.S.-Mexican relations. The Huffington Post describes Mexicans’ “cautiously optimistic” response to U.S. immigration reform.  CFR.org has a backgrounder on U.S. immigration. Tico Times predicts that Obama will not commit more U.S. financial aid to Central America during his trip to Costa Rica.

Abe’s Trip to Russia: The Asahi Shimbun describes the agenda for Abe’s trip to Russia with business executives. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs provides background on the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia. The Japan Times writes that former prime minister Yoshiro Mori advocates flexibility in negotiations to resolve the territorial dispute.

Tensions in the East China Sea: Sheila Smith writes a Contingency Planning Memorandum for “A  Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea.” The New York Times has a map of Japan’s territorial disputes. CNN reports that Chinese and Japanese ships gathered near the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal writes about how Abe’s nationalist policies raise tensions with China and Korea.

Do not threaten what you are not prepared to do. That is a cardinal rule of foreign policy. And it is a rule that is causing the White House diplomatic and political trouble now that it has agreed that Syria has likely used chemical weapons “on a small scale” against rebel forces.

The administration’s announcement today comes on the heels of similar claims by Britain and France last week and by Israel this week. The chemical weapon in question is believed to be sarin, which kills its victims by disrupting the ability of the nerves to communicate with the rest of the body.  The Japanese religious cult Aum Shinrikyo used sarin in a 1995 attack in the Tokyo subway system that killed twelve and injured thousands.

The administration has gone to some length to hedge its claim about what Syria has done. The letter informing congressional leaders stated that U.S. intelligence agencies had “varying degrees of confidence” about their finding. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who announced the administration’s new assessment during his trip to the Middle East, said “we need to get all the facts” before concluding for certain that the Syrians had used sarin or any other chemical weapon.

Definitive evidence that the intelligence agencies of four countries are dead wrong in their suspicions is not likely to come any time soon, if at all. So the pressure at home and abroad on President Obama to make the Assad government pay a price will grow. He has been calling on Assad to step down since August 2011, but he has declined to provide the means to make that happen.

Last August, he warned Damascus that the use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” that “would change my calculus” about the possibility of a U.S. intervention. He upped the ante last December when he warned Assad that using chemical weapons is “totally unacceptable,” and that if they are used “there will be consequences.”

Obama has never said what precisely he would do if Syria crossed his red line. But most observers have interpreted his statements as a promise to make Damascus regret using chemical weapons. Foreign capitals and Capitol Hill will be watching to see if Obama makes good on that threat. If he doesn’t, he risks undermining his credibility and U.S. power and influence as a result. That will make it harder to deal not just with Syria but with Iran and North Korea. Tough talk and inaction seldom yield good results.

The dilemma for Obama is that his reasons for not intervening in Syria remain sound. As Iraq and Afghanistan attest, it is easier to get into war than to get out, and nation building is easier said than done. The American public is weary of foreign interventions, and Washington has no shortage of other foreign policy problems demanding its attention.

At the same time, any U.S. effort to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons faces a host of problems. Syria has a much larger stockpile than Libya had under Muammar Qaddafi, which is why then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said last year that the difficulty in securing Syria’s chemical weapons will be “100 times worse than what we dealt with in Libya.”

Attacking Syrian chemical weapons depots could push the Syrians to fire whatever weapons they can, trigger the unintended release of chemical agents, or enable jihadists to steal chemical weapons before U.S. or friendly forces can secure them. So attempting to stop one danger could create even greater ones.

In the near term, Obama will likely try to redouble efforts to persuade Moscow and others to help rein in Damascus. That will buy him additional time to weigh his options. But diplomacy alone is unlike to solve his dilemma on chemical weapons, let alone the broader Syrian crisis. And so Obama will have to make tough decisions about whether to match his words with deeds, knowing that by doing so he could unleash events he cannot control.

The great English novelist  Charlotte Brontë once complained, “I can be on guard against my enemies, but God deliver me from my friends!” Obama administration officials today have some sympathy for Ms. Brontë’s lament. This morning their good friend, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, greatly complicated their diplomacy in northeast Asia with a vow to use force if China attempts to land forces on the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The vow is sure to increase tensions that had seemed to be easing over the isolated and barren rocks in the East China Sea that may (or may not) sit atop significant oil and gas reserves.

Abe’s tough talk comes just days after three members of his cabinet visited the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo.  The shrine honors Japan’s war dead, including fourteen so-called Class A war criminals from World War II. Japan’s neighbors see official visits to Yasukuni as clear evidence that Japan fails to understand the enormity of the crimes it inflicted on the rest of Asia seven decades ago. South Korea responded to the Yasukuni visit by canceling its foreign minister’s planned trip to Tokyo this weekend. Many Japanese parliamentarians, however, don’t seem inclined to be conciliatory. This morning 168 of them visited the shrine.

Even if the controversy over the Yasukuni Shrine evaporated, and it won’t, the Obama administration faces tough decisions over the Senkaku dispute. As my colleague Sheila Smith argues in a Contingency Planning Memorandum that CFR released today on tensions in the East China Sea, the stakes are high:

Until recently, this territorial dispute was little more than a minor irritant in Sino-Japanese relations. However, against the backdrop of China’s growing military power, the island dispute has increased concerns in Tokyo about Beijing’s regional intentions and the adequacy of Japan’s security, while stoking nationalistic politics in both capitals. Political miscalculation in Tokyo or Beijing, or unintended military interactions in and around the disputed islands, could escalate further, leading to an armed clash between Asia’s two largest powers. The United States, as a treaty ally of Japan but with vital strategic interests in fostering peaceful relations with China, has a major stake in averting such a clash and resolving the dispute, if possible.

So Washington has to find a way to dissuade China without jeopardizing other U.S. interests in play with Beijing (think North Korea for starters). It simultaneously has to reassure Tokyo of U.S. support for its claim to administrative control of the Senkaku Islands while making it clear to Abe and his government that they are not free to act as they see fit. This diplomatic tightrope walk could easily be disrupted by an accident or miscalculation. Military officers on the scene sometimes misunderstand or exceed their orders, and third parties such as fisherman or civilian activists can trigger chains of events that no one anticipated.

All in all, it’s a significant diplomatic challenge for the White House. So I strongly encourage you to read Sheila’s article to see what options the Obama administration has and why even the best of intentions could lead to pretty lousy results.

Happy Earth Day! Today marks its forty-third anniversary. The idea for the first Earth Day came from Senator Gaylord Nelson (D-WI). Appalled by the tragic 1969 oil spill near Santa Barbara, California, he wanted a way to bring attention to the problem of environmental degradation. His initial 1970 effort turned out 20 million people across the United States. Four-plus decades later, some one billion people around the world are participating in activities ranging from cleaning up parks and beaches to an environmental flash-mob in Seoul, which turned Psy’s “Gangnam Style” into “Eco-Style.” 

So how are we doing at protecting the Earth? According to my colleagues in CFR’s International Institutions and Global Governance Program (IIGG), not well at all. They celebrated Earth Day by releasing a Global Governance Report Card on climate change. They give the international fight against greenhouse gas emissions a D. Here is how they broke the grade down among various elements of the climate change issue:

A few countries and organizations received some praise. IIGG deemed the World Bank and the European Union to be “leaders,” and gave Australia a nod as “most improved.” But the rest of the class came in for criticism. China and the United States were marked down as “laggards,” Russia was designated a “truant,” and Canada was earmarked for “detention.” Like any good grader, IIGG did more than just hand out grades and labels. It also provided detailed explanations of the why the grades are so low, and it identified what countries need to do to make a dent in climate change.

If you like grades, you should know that IIGG today released Global Governance Report Cards on five other global challenges: nuclear weapons proliferation; transnational terrorism; violent conflict; financial instability; and threats to global health. The purpose of the effort is to think systematically about whether countries and international institutions are doing what needs to be done to tackle the significant transnational challenges that the world faces.

The two Boston Marathon bombing suspects have reportedly been identified as Chechen brothers Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. While their link to Chechnya remains unclear—the brothers lived in Kyrgyzstan and Dagestan and have been residents in the United States for some time—it has thrown a spotlight on Russia’s restive North Caucasus region. Although much remains uncertain in this fast-moving story—including what the brothers’ motives were—I asked my colleague Anya Schmemann, who follows Russia, to share some insights about Chechnya and what this development might mean for U.S.-Russian relations.

The reported identification of the Boston bombing suspects as ethnic Chechens has thrown a spotlight back on Russia’s troubled and volatile North Caucasus region, which has been the target of an Islamic insurgency stemming from separatist wars that date back to the 1990s.

The alleged link to Chechnya also raises questions about U.S.-Russian relations at a time when the relationship is on the skids.

Chechens have long had a troubled history with Russia; thousands of them were deported to Siberia and Kazakhstan by Soviet leader Stalin during World War II. A separatist war began in Chechnya in 1994 after the Soviet collapse and developed into an Islamic insurgency. Russian troops withdrew from Chechnya in 1996—ending the “first” Chechen war—but returned three years later to reassert control over the largely lawless and de-facto independent area.

The second Russian invasion was spurred by apartment bombings in Moscow that Russian authorities blamed on the Chechen rebels. Russian authorities also implicated Chechens in the deadly 2002 raid of a Moscow theater, the horrific 2004 school siege in the southern city of Beslan, and other bombings and attacks.

Many believe that Russian president Vladimir Putin used the Chechen war and 1999 apartment bombings as a pretext to clamp down on the Southern Caucasus region and consolidate his own power. As Russia prepares for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi—a city near these troubled areas—it is likely that Moscow will work to root out any terrorist threats. Indeed, the Boston events may trigger a crackdown in Russia, where roundups and harassment of Caucasians are common.

Chechnya has stabilized under Russia-backed leadership, but the insurgency spread to neighboring provinces, chiefly Dagestan, where the Tsarnaev brothers reportedly lived and where militants have continued to launch attacks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov warned against linking the bombing with Chechnya saying, “Any attempt to draw a connection between Chechnya and Tsarnaevs—if they are guilty—is futile.”

The United States backed Russia’s territorial integrity during the wars and did not endorse the separatists’ desire for an independent state. Washington has also supported Russia’s right to combat terrorism—though many in the United States were sympathetic to the anti-Russian freedom fighters in Chechnya, and there has long been concern about Russia’s harsh tactics and human rights violations in the region.

The reported identification of the Boston bombers as Chechens may spur increased U.S. support for Moscow’s approach to Islamic extremism. Russia has already offered its assistance in the ongoing investigation, and the Boston bombings will likely lead to increased counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries.

Moscow has long claimed that Chechen rebels have close links with al-Qaeda, that Arab fighters joined Chechen fighters during the wars, and that some Chechen militants joined the fight in Afghanistan. These claims may receive additional U.S. attention after the Boston events.

U.S.-Russian relations have been strained in recent months, with tensions rising over conflicting approaches to Syria, Russian concerns about U.S. adoptions of Russian children, and American concerns about a recent Russian law constraining nonprofit groups, the current trial of anti-government activist Alexei Navalny, and the Kremlin’s broader crackdown on dissent.

The American Magnitsky Act, which punishes Russians accused of violating human rights, has infuriated Russia and aggravated the already-tattered relationship. Interestingly, the “Magnitsky list,” which was released last Friday by the Obama administration, names two Chechens, including Kazbek Dukuzov, who was acquitted in the 2004 killing of American journalist Paul Klebnikov. Russia released its own blacklist of barred Americans in response to the American list.

U.S. national security adviser Tom Donilon was in Moscow earlier this week to present a letter from President Obama in an effort to improve relations and to discuss potential arms control and missile defense deals.

Both sides seek to mend ties. But it remains to be seen if the Boston bombings offer an opportunity for U.S.-Russian cooperation, or if it will lead to an overly aggressive Russian response in the North Caucasus that could be worrisome for the United States.

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombings, King Abdullah II of Jordan’s visit to the United States, and the ASEAN summit in Brunei.

The highlights:

• Monday’s bombings at the finish line of the Boston Marathon killed three people and left more than 170 injured. FBI, ATF, and local police are slowly and painstakingly looking for evidence that might generate leads for tracking down the suspect (or suspects). Law enforcement is getting an assist from the public. People who were at the marathon are sharing their photos and videos with police. Meanwhile, lots of interested civilians are poring over photos and videos on the web trying to uncover clues that might help in the investigation. One positive development is that thus far law enforcement has found no reason to connect the ricin-laced letters sent to President Obama and Mississippi senator Roger Wicker to the Boston bombings.
• King Abdullah II of Jordan is set to visit the White House next Friday. One topic he will be discussing with President Obama is Syria. But the bigger issue that will be on everyone’s mind is Jordan itself. Thus far Abdullah has sidestepped the political upheavals that have shaken the Arab world over the past two years and toppled regimes in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. But the Hashemite Kingdom faces tough times. Nearly half the population of Jordan is under the age of twenty, unemployment is in double digits, and economic growth has been sluggish. That combination by itself is often sufficient for political unrest. But Abdullah also faces growing complaints about corruption, rising Islamist sentiment, and the influx of more than 470,000 Syrian refugees into a country of just 6.5 million people. The Obama administration hopes that it can help the King to remain in power and push ahead with his domestic reform plans. Whether U.S. officials have the time, skill, and capacity to do so remains an open question.
• The twenty-second Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit meeting opens next Wednesday in Brunei. Heads of government from the ten member countries will attend. They will be joined by officials from partner countries such as China, Japan, and Korea. An issue that will be talked about more bluntly on the margins of the meeting than during the formal sessions is the dispute over China’s expansive claims to the South China Sea. Beijing argues that the issue should be handled in bilateral talks and not, as is the case with ASEAN, multilateral fora. Vietnam, the Philippines, and other ASEAN countries that see China trampling on their sovereignty understand that there is power is numbers and prefer to go the multilateral route. Their problem is that some of their colleagues in ASEAN have no direct stake in the maritime dispute and no interest in antagonizing China.
• Bob’s Figure of the Week is Pervez Musharraf. My Figure of the Week is 1.8 percent. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.

For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out:

Boston Marathon bombings: The New York Times has live updates of the investigation and reports on the video footage of bombing suspects. The White House provides a transcript of President Obama’s remarks after the bombing. National Geographic writes that social media played a large role in the response to the bombings.

King Abdullah’s U.S. visit: The New York Times reports on the challenges facing the Jordanian opposition.  The White House has video of President Obama and King Abdullah II’s press conference in Jordan last month. The Los Angeles Times writes that the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan is worsening in spite of a newly opened refugee camp. The Atlantic has Jeffrey Goldberg’s interview with King Abdullah II.

ASEAN summit in Brunei: The ASEAN summit hosts compile the latest updates on the upcoming summit. Josh Kurlantzick writes that ASEAN faces challenges that prevent it from reaching its full potential in the region. The Philippine Star reports that a code of conduct between ASEAN and China for disputed territories in the South China Sea will be a high priority at the summit. Project Syndicate analyzes obstacles to peacefully resolving the South China Sea disputes.

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed Margaret Thatcher’s legacy, the Venezuelan elections, and the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington.

The highlights:

• Margaret Thatcher, who died on Monday of a stroke at the age of eighty-seven, will be buried next Wednesday in London. Her funeral procession will go from the Palace of Westminster to St. Paul’s Cathedral and have a distinct Falklands War theme. Thatcher rose from being a grocer’s daughter to become one of the most influential political figures in the second half of the twentieth century. Britons are split on her legacy. Her supporters hail her as “the woman who saved Britain” by pushing tough free-market economic policies and de-nationalizing many state-owned industries. For the very same reason, her opponents deride her as “the woman who divided a nation.” Outside of the United Kingdom, Baroness Thatcher is probably best remembered as the prime minister who led Britain to victory in the Falklands War and for her friendship with her with Ronald Reagan.
• Nicolas Maduro has a ten-percentage point lead in the polls heading into next Sunday’s presidential elections in Venezuela. The special election is being held to fill the seat of Hugo Chavez, who died of cancer on March 5. Maduro, who was Chavez’s pick to succeed him, is making it clear that he wants to carry on Chavez’s legacy. Maduro says that Chavez’s spirit visited him in the form of a bird to provide encouragement, and he now whistles like a bird at his campaign rallies. Maduro is also running ads that portray Chavez as Jesus Christ and using the slogan “I am Chavez.” Maduro’s opponent, Henrique Capriles, who won 44 percent of the vote in last October’s presidential election, is having a hard time turning the discussion to the issues. Venezuelans may come to regret the lack of substantive debate. Venezuela faces tough economic times and struggles with significant government corruption.
• The annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank begin next week in Washington, DC. Financial officials, diplomats, economists, and academics will have no shortage of topics to discuss: the Eurozone crisis, Japan’s embrace of quantitative easing, the future policy choices of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the threat of competitive devaluations, and the future of the development agenda, to name just a few. IMF and World Bank officials no doubt would like their member governments to address these issues, but at the end of the day the real decisions on each will be made in national capitals.
• Bob’s Figure of the Week is 100,000. My Figure of the Week is Salam Fayyad. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.

For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out:

Margaret Thatcher’s legacy: The New York Times has an obituary of Margaret Thatcher. The Independent announces the funeral’s Falklands War theme. The Guardian remembers famous Margaret Thatcher quotes and discusses Scotland Yard’s security plans for the funeral. The BBC has the funeral guest list and a full report of Parliament’s debate on Thatcher’s legacy.

Venezuelan elections: The New York Times notes Chavez’s presence in the election and lists ten memorable Hugo Chavez moments. Julia Sweig writes on the prevalence of Chavez in the campaign and the challenges that the winner will face. Reuters has a profile of interim president and candidate Nicholas Maduro and a report on Henrique Capriles’s recent rally in Caracas.

World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington: The IMF has an overview of the spring meetings. The Guardian writes that the IMF believes that its attempts to stimulate growth will not cause inflation in the global economy. The Center for Global Development discusses the issues facing the World Bank and the IMF and the outlook for change in the  two organizations. The Washington Post reports on the meeting between U.S. treasury secretary Jack Lew and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.