Shannon K. O'Neil

Latin America's Moment

O'Neil analyzes developments in Latin America and U.S. relations in the region.

North America by the Numbers

by Shannon K. O'Neil Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Oil Pipelines Pipelines carrying steam to wellheads and heavy oil back to the processing plant line the roads and boreal forest at the Cenovus Energy Christina Lake Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) project 120 km (74 miles) south of Fort McMurray, Alberta, August 15, 2013. Cenovus currently produces 100,000 barrels of heavy oil per day at their Christina Lake tar sands project (Todd Korol/Courtesy Reuters).

How much do Canada and Mexico matter for the United States? Here are a few snapshots illustrating the importance of our combined global heft and influence.

  • North American countries are joined by 7,500 miles of land borders, among the longest in the world.
  • Though comprising less than 7 percent of the world’s population, Canada, Mexico and the United States produce nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP—some 20 trillion dollars.
  • Read more »

A Runoff for Brazil’s Rousseff and Neves

by Shannon K. O'Neil Monday, October 6, 2014
Brazil presidential elections 2014 Brazil's presidential candidates Aecio Neves (R) of Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff of Workers Party (PT) take part in a TV debate in Rio de Janeiro October 2, 2014. Brazil will be be holding its general elections on October 5, to elect the country's National Congress, president, state governors and state legislatures (Ricardo Moraes/Courtesy Reuters).

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff won the first–round of the 2014 presidential election yesterday with almost 42 percent of the vote. The real surprise of the contest, however, came in Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) nominee Aecio Neves’s impressive second place finish, capturing a third of voters and surpassing Marina Silva of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). Although Neves’s polling numbers had risen in the election lead–up, few expected such a strong showing. Read more »

North America: Time for a New Focus

by Shannon K. O'Neil Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Task Force on North America U.S. President Barack Obama (L) shakes hands with Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper (R) as Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto looks on after attending a news conference, at the North American Leaders' Summit in Toluca near Mexico City, February 19, 2014 (Henry Romero/Courtesy Reuters).

Today I am pleased to launch CFR’s Independent Task Force on North America. I have been working with co-chairs David H. Petraeus and Robert Zoellick, as well as some twenty other Task Force members and observers, over the past year to better understand the myriad issues facing Canada, the United States, and Mexico, and to make concrete policy recommendations for the U.S. government to strengthen the region. We find that while not always the most urgent of policy issues, North America is as vitally important to the United States’ future. Read more »

A Conversation with Enrique Peña Nieto

by Shannon K. O'Neil Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Enrique Pena Nieto (Don Pollard/Courtesy Don Pollard Photo).

Yesterday, President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico joined us at the Council on Foreign Relations as part of the Russel C. Leffingwell Lecture series. In a conversation with Robert Rubin, Co-Chairman of CFR, President Peña Nieto discussed the progress of the reforms initiated under his administration and current developments in his country. Read more »

South-South Trade and Latin America

by Shannon K. O'Neil Friday, September 19, 2014
South-south trade, developing south trade, inter-industry trade, Latin America, exports, intermediary goods Workers harvest soy in a farm during a demonstration of harvest machines in Correntina, Bahia March 31, 2010. Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is estimated to be 67.5 million tonnes (Paulo Whitaker/Courtesy Reuters).

The economic rise of the developing south is one of the biggest trends of the last decade, accelerated by the 2008 global economic downturn. Since 2001 trade between these countries has grown 18 percent a year on average, outpacing global trade growth of 11 percent. Nearly half of all exports worldwide now originate in emerging markets—predominantly Asia. Read more »

Guest Post: Sustaining Mexico’s Energy Reform

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Mexican Fund for Stabilization and Development Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto (C), President of Mexico's Senate Raul Cervantes (L) and President of the Chamber of Deputies Jose Gonzalez hold up a written version of an energy reform at the National Palace in Mexico City August 11, 2014 (Edgar Garrido/Reuters).

This is a guest post by Greg Mendoza, an MA student at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. He previously was an intern in the Latin America Studies program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Last year, Mexico passed a historic energy reform to end over seventy years of exclusive state control of the energy sector. Some analysts estimate drastic changes in the sector—with upwards of twenty billion dollars in foreign direct investment a year that could boost GDP 2 percent annually by 2025. Read more »

Lights Out: Brazil’s Power Problem

by Shannon K. O'Neil Tuesday, August 12, 2014
A view of the Itaipu Hydroelectric dam, the world's largest operational electricity generator, on the Brazilian side of the border with Paraguay, in Foz do Iguacu in this 2005 file photo. A major electricity outage at the dam left tens of millions of people in Brazil's two largest cities of Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro without power on November 10, 2009, according to the Brazilian director of the Itaipu dam (Rickey Rogers/Courtesy Reuters). A view of the Itaipu Hydroelectric dam, the world's largest operational electricity generator, on the Brazilian side of the border with Paraguay, in Foz do Iguacu in this 2005 file photo. A major electricity outage at the dam left tens of millions of people in Brazil's two largest cities of Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro without power on November 10, 2009, according to the Brazilian director of the Itaipu dam (Rickey Rogers/Courtesy Reuters).

With the World Cup over, Brazilians are turning to their next big event—October’s presidential elections. While President Dilma Rousseff still leads in the polls, her margins continue to shrink. A recent Datafolha poll puts Rousseff and Aecio Neves—her leading challenger—as statistically tied in a hypothetical second round. Read more »

Guest Post: Mexico’s Aerospace Sector Takes Flight

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil Thursday, August 7, 2014
An Aeromexico Boeing 777 taxis after completing the first ever commercial transatlantic flight using biofuel between Mexico City and Madrid at Madrid's Barajas airport August 2, 2011 (Paul Hanna/Courtesy Reuters). An Aeromexico Boeing 777 taxis after completing the first ever commercial transatlantic flight using biofuel between Mexico City and Madrid at Madrid's Barajas airport August 2, 2011 (Paul Hanna/Courtesy Reuters).

This is a guest post by Stephanie Leutert, who is beginning an MA in Global Affairs at Yale University in the fall. She previously was my research associate in the Latin America Studies program at the Council on Foreign Relations. Read more »

Argentina Defaults

by Shannon K. O'Neil Friday, August 1, 2014
A woman walks past a graffiti that reads "No to the debt payment" in Buenos Aires, July 28, 2014. Time is running out for Argentina to pay "holdout" investors
suing Latin America's No. 3 economy for full payment on their bonds, or reach a deal that buys more time to avert a default (Marcos Brindicci/Courtesy Reuters). A woman walks past a graffiti that reads "No to the debt payment" in Buenos Aires, July 28, 2014. Time is running out for Argentina to pay "holdout" investors suing Latin America's No. 3 economy for full payment on their bonds, or reach a deal that buys more time to avert a default (Marcos Brindicci/Courtesy Reuters).

Two days ago, Argentina failed to come to an agreement with its holdout creditors and defaulted for the second time in thirteen years. In this piece for Foreign Policy, I explain why this outcome is not so surprising. You can read the beginning of the piece below:  Read more »

Dos Naciones Indivisibles on Es la Hora de Opinar

by Shannon K. O'Neil Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Es la Hora de Opinar. Es la Hora de Opinar.

Two weeks ago, I was down in Mexico for the launch of the Spanish-language version of my book, Dos Naciones Indivisibles: México, Estados Unidos, y el Camino por Venir. During my time there, I had the pleasure of talking with Leo Zuckermann and Javier Tello on FOROtv’s Es la Hora de Opinar. We had a lively conversation on Mexico and US-Mexico relations. You can watch it here. Read more »