Shannon K. O'Neil

Latin America's Moment

O'Neil analyzes developments in Latin America and U.S. relations in the region.

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Showing posts for "Brazil"

Latin America’s Populist Hangover

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Alberto Fujimori, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Carlos Menem, corruption, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Ecuador, Evo Morales, Getulio Vargas, Guatemala, Honduras, Hugo Chavez, Jimmy Morales, Juan Orlando Hernandez, Juan Peron, Latin America, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexico, Nestor Kirchner, Nicolas Maduro, Otto Perez-Molina, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, Peru, populism, Rafael Correa, Venezuela Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner waves to supporters from a balcony after a ceremony at the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace in Buenos Aires on May 4, 2015 (Reuters/Argentine Presidency).

In my piece published in the November/December 2016 issue of Foreign Affairs, I lay out the economic and political characteristics of populism, analyze why it is receding in Latin America today, and describe what a next wave might look like. I also argue that Latin America’s historical experience with populism provides some bracing warnings to other countries now flirting with such politics. You can read the first three paragraphs of the article below: Read more »

Interview With Jim Zirin: Current Events in Latin America

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Jim Zirin, Conversations in the Digital Age, United States, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, U.S.-Mexico relations, peace deal, impeachment (Courtesy Jim Zirin)

Last month, I had the pleasure of joining Jim Zirin on “Conversations in the Digital Age” to discuss the U.S.-Mexico relationship, the presidential impeachment in Brazil, Colombia’s peace deal, Argentina’s return to global markets, and the turmoil in Venezuela. You can watch the interview here.

Political Fault Lines in Post-Rousseff Brazil

by Matthew Taylor
Dilma Rousseff, Brazil, impeachment, Michel Temer, Eduardo Cunha, corruption, Lava Jato, golpe, golpismo, Workers' Party, Lula, Centrão, Marcelo Odebrecht, Petrobras Senator Aecio Neves (C), Rousseff's attorney in the impeachment proceedings, Jose Eduardo Cardozo (L) and Brazil's suspended President Dilma Rousseff smile during a voting session on the impeachment of Rousseff in Brasilia, Brazil, August 29, 2016 (Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino).

After nearly nine months, Brazil’s impeachment drama is over. The process ended on a curiously subdued note: the Senate’s questioning of Dilma Rousseff on Monday was a staid affair, and Tuesday’s speeches were calculatedly calm and measured. By the time the Senate began to vote today, Rousseff’s removal was a foregone conclusion. But the civilized, even boring, proceedings obscured an important objective of this week’s debates: shaping the historical narrative that will guide each side’s supporters over Michel Temer administration’s next twenty-eight months in office. Read more »

A Game of Inches: The Uncertain Fight Against Corruption in Latin America

by Matthew Taylor
3 out of 3, anticorruption, Car Wash investigation, Claudia Paz y Paz, corruption, International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), Matthew Stephenson, Sérgio Moro A boy holds a sign which reads, "No more corruption", during a demonstration demanding the resignation of Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina, in downtown Guatemala City, May 30, 2015 (Reuters/Jorge Dan Lopez).

Harvard’s inimitable Matthew Stephenson this week published a thought-provoking blog post comparing anticorruption efforts in Asia and Latin America. Crudely summarizing Stephenson’s argument, a few years ago many looked to Asia as the gold standard in anticorruption efforts, in part because of the success of independent and effective anticorruption agencies (ACAs) in the region. But recent news of political meddling with Hong Kong’s ACA, brazen kleptocracy in Malaysia’s state development fund, and efforts to water down reform in Indonesia all suggest that the pendulum is swinging in a less positive direction. By contrast, Stephenson is optimistic about the important gains made in recent years in Latin America, including by Guatemala’s International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG), Brazil’s Car Wash investigation, elections in Peru and Argentina that highlighted voter frustration with corruption, and Mexico’s “3 out of 3” reforms. Read more »

Brazil’s Agonizing August

by Matthew Taylor
Brazil, 2016 Olympics, Rio de Janeiro, Zika, August, Dilma Rousseff, impeachment, Michel Temer, reforms, pension reform, labor reform, elections, democracy, developmentalist economic policies, coalitional political system Brazil's David Luiz lies on the pitch after missing a goal during the 2014 World Cup third-place playoff between Brazil and the Netherlands at the Brasilia national stadium in Brasilia July 12, 2014 (Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino).

The coming month will be a stressful one for Brazilians.

The Olympic opening ceremony on August 5 may have two rival presidents in attendance, killer mosquitoes, pesky media, and now, the potential for terrorism. Most Brazilians had long hoped the games would be a chaotic but happy mess, like the 2014 World Cup, and few anticipated an embarrassment. But sentiment has shifted with the arrest of a dozen alleged homegrown extremists. Terrorism can be added to the long litany of potential problems that have led Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes to note that “contingencies are always possible,” and that the Olympics have been a “lost opportunity” for Brazil. Read more »

Corruption, Politics, and Corporate Transparency in Latin America

by Matthew Taylor
anticorruption, campaign spending limits, corporate donations, corporate transparency, corruption, electoral finance, illegal enrichment, influence peddling, Lava Jato, multilatinas, multinationals, Odebrecht, politics, transparency Gustavo de Hoyos (C), president of the Mexican Employers' Confederation (COPARMEX), holds a placard during a protest to demand senators to approve the original proposal of the National Anticorruption System, at the Angel of Independence monument in Mexico City, Mexico, June 16, 2016. The placard reads: "Businessmen demand to stop corruption. #SNA" (Reuters/Ginnette Riquelme).

It is Latin America’s anticorruption season. Deep beneath the waves of revulsion about scandal, graft, and the general filthiness of local politics has been a profound concern with democracy. In particular, there is a growing awareness that the dangerous liaisons between corruption and electoral finance threaten the stability and legitimacy of elected governments in the region. While there is plenty of good news about the impressive corruption busters who are shaking up settled patterns of corruption and impunity in the region, many of the underlying links between corporate transparency, corruption, and campaign finance remain deeply troubling and potentially destabilizing. Read more »

Argentina and Brazil Grow Together

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Argentina, Brazil, corruption, global supply chains, high expectations, Mauricio Macri, Michel Temer, reform, South America, stagnant growth, trade Hundreds of cars stand in the port of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil December 1, 2015 (Reuters/Ricardo Moraes).

In my piece published this week on Foreignaffairs.com I reflect on Argentina’s and Brazil’s current political and economic situations. I argue that while their current challenges are their own, a potential long-term solution to their problems comes from each other—namely working to build an integrated South American economic hub. You can read the first two paragraphs of the article below: Read more »

Venezuela’s Woes Reach Mercosur

by Matthew Taylor
Mercosur, trade, Pacific Alliance, Venezuela, European Union, democratic clause, Nicolas Maduro, Jose Serra, Delcy Rodriguez Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro stands in front of an image depicting the country's late President Hugo Chavez during a meeting with members of Venezuela's United Socialist Party (PSUV) in Caracas, in this handout picture provided by Miraflores Palace on January 29, 2016 (Reuters/Miraflores Palace).

Mercosur is under considerable internal strain. As at other times in the trade bloc’s history, shifting political winds and changing trade priorities have placed the member countries at loggerheads. The five-member organization is in the midst of what is perhaps the most severe of its periodic identity crises, exacerbated by the Left’s waning power in the region, the rise of the Pacific Alliance, and renewed member interest in external trade agreements. Read more »

Brazil’s Challenging Distractions

by Matthew Taylor
Michel Temer, impeachment, Dilma Rousseff, Lava Jato, Renan Calheiros, Jose Sarney, Romero Juca, anticorruption, Petrobras, Ministerio Publico, Leo Pinheiro, Marina Silva, Marcelo Odebrecht, Zelotes, Eduardo Cunha Brazil's interim President Michel Temer reacts during the inauguration ceremony of new presidents of state companies, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, June 1, 2016 (Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino).

Michel Temer’s first month as interim president has not been the stuff of dreams. Even though important elements of urgently needed economic reforms have advanced, impeachment politics continue to cast a long shadow, corruption investigations continue to percolate, and Temer’s legitimacy remains under constant assault. Read more »

Legitimacy and the Battle to Remove Rousseff

by Matthew Taylor
President Dilma Rousseff, Vice President Michel Temer, impeachment, legitimacy, Ricardo Janot, PSDB, PMDB, Lava Jato, Brasilia Brazil's Vice President Michel Temer (L) talks with President Dilma Rousseff during a ceremony to announce the adaptation criteria in the AM and FM broadcasting grants, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, November 24, 2015 (Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters).

The past week has brought a number of puzzling new feints and jabs in Brasília’s bloody political cage match:

– Most dramatically, reputable news organizations are reporting that President Dilma Rousseff is contemplating resigning from office later this week, despite having spent much of the past year denying that she would ever countenance resignation; Read more »