Shannon K. O'Neil

Latin America's Moment

O'Neil analyzes developments in Latin America and U.S. relations in the region.

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Showing posts for "Brazil"

Foreign Affairs’ Brazil Economic Summit

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Brazil, Brazil Economic Summit, Brian Winter, Foreign Affairs, President Dilma RousseffBrazil, Brazil Economic Summit, Brian Winter, Foreign Affairs, President Dilma Rousseff (Courtesy of Foreign Affairs)

I had the pleasure yesterday morning of sharing the stage with Brian Winter, vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, to talk about Brazil for Foreign Affairs’ Brazil Economic Summit. We discussed the ongoing corruption probes, President Dilma Rousseff’s chances of survival, and the possibility and paths for recovery. You can watch our discussion here.

The Long Arm of U.S. Law and Latin America’s Corruption Malaise

by Matthew Taylor
Latin America, corruption scandals, CICIG, Petrobras, U.S. foreign policy, Brazil's Clean Company Law, U.S. Deparment of Justice, Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York A demonstrator holds inflatable dolls depicting Brazil's former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (R) and Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff during a protest calling for the impeachment of Rousseff near the National Congress in Brasilia, Brazil, December 13, 2015 (Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters).

Latin America’s corruption scandals of the past two years are moving slowly toward resolution. As they move forward, it is interesting to note that in a region that has been particularly protective of its sovereignty, foreign cooperation has played a significant role, whether it is via bilateral exchanges between prosecutors, mutual legal assistance treaties, or even United Nations support, as in the case of Guatemala’s International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG). But these various forms of international cooperation may soon be joined by another international anti-corruption effort that is less well understood in Latin America: prosecution by U.S. attorneys. Read more »

Seven Uncertainties in Lenten Brazil

by Matthew Taylor
Brazil, Zika virus, Lula da Silva, Olympics, PMDB, Lava Jato, Zelotes, Aedes Aegypti mosquito, Eduardo Cunha, Vice President Temer, PSDB, Workers Party, Antonio Monteiro Municipal workers wait before spraying insecticide at Sambodrome in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, January 26, 2016 (Pilar Olivares/Reuters).

Brazil is getting back to business after an exuberant carnival that brought irrepressible Brazilian humor to bear on serious national travails, including the Zika virus, Lula’s legal troubles, and the Olympics. Reality’s bite may be harsh after two months’ holiday respite from the high political drama of 2015. The coming year will be jam-packed, including the highly contested election later this week of new party leadership, a PMDB party leadership convention in March, the April deadline for ministers and governors to step down if they are running for office, the August Olympics, and the October municipal elections. Layered over these events will be the ongoing Lava Jato and Zelotes corruption investigations, campaigns against the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, and of course, the continued drama of Chamber of Deputies’ president Eduardo Cunha’s cage match with President Rousseff. Read more »

The Political Salience of Latin Americans’ Perceptions of Corruption

by Matthew Taylor
Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, Support Mission against Corruption and Impunity, MACCIH, International Commission Against Impunity, CICIG. corruption, impunity A demonstrator holds a scarf during a march to demand for the resignation of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez in Tegucigalpa August 14, 2015. Thousands of protesters have been continuing demonstrations in Tegucigalpa, calling for the resignation of Hernandez over a $200 million corruption scandal at the Honduran Institute of Social Security (Jorge Cabrera/Reuters).

Once a year, policymakers and the press are forcibly reminded of the terrible costs of corruption. This year, it fell on January 27, when Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) was released, inciting the ritual gnashing of teeth and beating of chests about relative national corruption gains and losses. Read more »

Opportunities for U.S. Engagement in Latin America

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Latin America, Pacific Alliance, Colombia's peace negotiations, Luis Almagro, Cuba, Mexico's judicial reforms, anticorruption, Global Magnitsky Act, rule of law, North America, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Central America Regional Security Initiative, International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, Alliance for Prosperity (Courtesy U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations)

Last week, I had the privilege of testifying before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations at a hearing titled “Political and Economic Developments in Latin America and Opportunities for U.S. Engagement.” Also joining me before the committee were Thomas McLarty, chairman of McLarty Associates, and Eric Farnsworth, vice president of Americas Society and Council of the Americas. Read more »

South America’s Shifting Diplomatic Landscape

by Matthew Taylor
rapprochement, Cuba, U.S.-Brazil relations, Dilma Rousseff, Colombia peace talks, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, commodities boom, Mauricio Macri, Mercosur, Mauro Vieira, Susana Malcorra, pink tide countries, Democratic Unity Roundtable, Organization of American States, National Assembly, Nicolas Maduro, Unasur, BNDES, Banco do Brasil, Brazil-China Fund, Trans-Pacific Partnership, BRICS, Chinese meltdown Argentine Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra (L) and Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Viera speak before the Summit of Heads of State of MERCOSUR and Associated States and 49th Meeting of the Common Market Council in Luque, Paraguay, December 20, 2015 (Jorge Adorno/Reuters).

The past year has altered Latin America’s diplomatic panorama. Among the most significant changes were a U.S. policy turnaround that included U.S. rapprochement with Cuba, a reset in U.S.-Brazil relations cemented during President Dilma Rousseff’s June state visit to Washington, DC, and greater U.S. participation in the Colombian peace talks. In addition to these carefully strategized advances, a variety of far more contingent factors is converging in ways that are likely to shake up established regional alignments within South America. As the region prepares for the fourth Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit at the end of January, the rightward shift of domestic politics in the region, the woeful state of Brazil’s Rousseff government, and the Pacific turn in trade negotiations are combining in ways that may create a new set of opportunities for regional relations, and will certainly jumble the status quo. Read more »

Five Upsides to Brazil’s Crisis

by Matthew Taylor
Brazil, recession, debt, deficit, corruption scandal, Brazil's Fall, Joaquim Levy, President Dilma Rousseff, Lava Jato, Zelotes, upsides, Nelson Barbosa Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff gestures during a meeting with social movements at Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, December 17, 2015 (Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters).

Brazil is in the midst of the longest recession of the democratic era that began in 1985. Between 2015 and 2016, the economy will shrink by 7 percent, more than in any other two-year period in the past century. The Economist’s dire cover story this week summarized the sad state of affairs: a downgrade in the country’s debt to junk status, a massive corruption scandal, rising public debt, two-digit inflation, and a rudderless political system, all contributing to “Brazil’s Fall.” Read more »

A Conversation With Mark Jones and Kellie Meiman Hock

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Argentina, President Mauricio Macri Argentina's President Mauricio Macri holds the symbolic leader's staff next to Vice-President Gabriela Michetti (L) and Senate provisional president Federico Pinedo (R) at Casa Rosada Presidential Palace in Buenos Aires, Argentina, December 10, 2015 (Marcos Brindicci/Reuters).

This post features Mark P. Jones, the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s political science fellow and Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin America Studies at Rice University, and Kellie Meiman Hock, managing partner and director of the Brazil and Southern Cone and trade practices at McLarty Associates. Latin America’s Moment recently sat down with Jones and Meiman Hock to discuss Argentina’s outlook. Read more »

New Argentine President Macri’s Economic Challenges

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Mauricio Macri, Argentina Mauricio Macri, presidential candidate of the Cambiemos (Let's Change) coalition, with his daughter Antonia on his shoulders, and his wife Juliana Awada wave to supporters after the presidential election in Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 22, 2015. Conservative opposition candidate Macri comfortably won Argentina's presidential election on Sunday after promising business-friendly reforms to spur investment in the struggling economy (Ivan Alvarado/ Reuters).

Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires and leader of the Cambiemos coalition, won yesterday’s presidential run-off, becoming the first non-Peronist president in nearly fifteen years. From his start on December 10 he will face several severe economic challenges: Read more »

Guest Post: The Petrobras Corruption Scandal and Brazil’s Ethanol Sector

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil
Brazil, Petrobras, corruption, scandal, ethanol, hydrous ethanol, Brazilian Development Bank Sugar cane is harvested at a plantation of Da Mata, the Brazilian sugar cane processor, in Valparaiso, 355 miles northwest of Sao Paulo September 18, 2014. Brazil, one of the world's largest producers and exporters of sugar and ethanol, is a pioneer in the use of sugar cane-derived ethanol to power cars (Paulo Whitaker/Reuters).

This is a guest post by Luis Ferreira Alvarez, an analyst with Stratas Advisors’ Global Biofuels Assessment and Global Alternative Fuels divisions covering Latin America.  Read more »