Shannon K. O'Neil

Latin America's Moment

O'Neil analyzes developments in Latin America and U.S. relations in the region.

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Showing posts for "Colombia"

Brazil’s Brewing Trade Debate

by Matthew Taylor
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hands with Brazil's President Michel Temer during their meeting at the West lake State Guest House in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, September 2, 2016 (Minor Iwasaki/Reuters).

Brazil is in the midst of a grand debate on its future in the global economy. The debate has been happening behind the scenes, obfuscated by the fireworks of the Lava Jato corruption scandal, overshadowed by the flashier discussions of political reform and the Temer administration’s fiscal reforms, and hidden from view by explosive scandals, such as the recent meat-packing disaster that threatens one of Brazil’s key export markets. Read more »

Five Facts about Bad Hombres and Border Security

by Matthew Taylor
People talk to their relatives at a wall separating Mexico and the United States, as photographed from Playas Tijuana, in Tijuana, Mexico, April 10, 2016 (Jorge Duenes/Reuters).

The new administration has emphasized the need to curb security threats from Latin America: bad hombres, rapist Mexicans, and the wall are among the wrenching rhetorical symbols that President Trump has used to signal his goals. Five data points highlight the challenges the administration will face as it moves to secure the southern border. Read more »

Venezuela: Options for U.S. Policy

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Courtesy Kaveh Sardari

This morning, I had the privilege of testifying before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations at a hearing titled “Venezuela: Options for U.S. Policy.” Also joining me before the committee were David Smilde, Senior Fellow, Washington Office on Latin America, and Mark Feierstein, Senior Associate, Americas Program Center for Strategic and International Studies. Read more »

Open Questions about Latin American Relations During the Trump Administration

by Matthew Taylor
U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto walk out after finishing a press conference at the Los Pinos residence in Mexico City, Mexico, August 31, 2016 (Reuters/Henry Romero). U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto walk out after finishing a press conference at the Los Pinos residence in Mexico City, Mexico, August 31, 2016 (Reuters/Henry Romero).

We know very little about who will run Western Hemisphere affairs under the Trump administration. So far, the only named appointees are Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly and National Security Council (NSC) Senior Director Craig Deare. There are as yet no nominees for key Western Hemisphere positions at State, Defense, or Commerce, which is not unexpected for an administration this young. Although the Latin America team is not fully formed, the pressing Latin America agenda – which will get underway in earnest with today’s visit by a Mexican delegation – suggests that it is well worth reflecting on the central questions likely to determine the trajectory of the region during Trump’s presidency: Read more »

Latin America’s Wide-Open Electoral Season

by Matthew Taylor
July 28, 2016 (Reuters/Guadalupe Pardo). July 28, 2016 (Reuters/Guadalupe Pardo).

Half of the eighteen nations of Central and South America will hold presidential elections over the next two years.[1] The number of elections is not unprecedented, but the degree of uncertainty is, given the economic doldrums and political crises that have afflicted the region in recent years. As a consequence of the electoral outlook’s uncertainty, many of the coming year’s events in Latin America will need to be interpreted through the peculiar lens of candidates’ strategic calculations and parties’ maneuvering for advantage at the polls. Read more »

Bringing International Pressure To Bear on Nicolás Maduro

by Matthew Taylor
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro (2nd L) and former Spanish prime minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero (2nd R) speak next to Secretary General of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) Ernesto Samper (L) and former president of Dominican Republic Leonel Fernandez, during their meeting at Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela July 21, 2016 (Reuters/Carlos Garcia Rawlins).

[This post was co-authored with John Polga-Hecimovich*. It is the third of a series that begins with this post.]

The collapse in Venezuela has many potential costs: democratic regression in Latin America; destabilization of neighboring countries, including, potentially, the fragile peace process in Colombia; the possibility of a significant migrant crisis; rising violence, corruption, and criminality; and threats to hemispheric energy security. A mix of frustration with President Nicolás Maduro’s recent moves and apprehension about the potential outcomes of the crisis has led to a frantic search for alternatives, none of which seems particularly likely to be effective on its own. The paucity of alternatives suggests that the best the international community may be able to hope for is to isolate the regime, demonstrate to moderates within the regime that there are costs to sticking with Maduro, and make efforts to ameliorate the worst humanitarian consequences of the crisis. Read more »

Interview With Jim Zirin: Current Events in Latin America

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Jim Zirin, Conversations in the Digital Age, United States, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, U.S.-Mexico relations, peace deal, impeachment (Courtesy Jim Zirin)

Last month, I had the pleasure of joining Jim Zirin on “Conversations in the Digital Age” to discuss the U.S.-Mexico relationship, the presidential impeachment in Brazil, Colombia’s peace deal, Argentina’s return to global markets, and the turmoil in Venezuela. You can watch the interview here.

Five Questions After Colombia’s Surprising Vote Against Peace

by Matthew Taylor
Alvaro Uribe, Colombia, FARC, peace deal, plebiscite, President Juan Manuel Santos, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, Timochenko People holds balloons during an event organized by supporters of the "no" vote for the upcoming Plebiscite in Bogota, Colombia, September 29, 2016 (Reuters/Felipe Caicedo).

Pollsters’ best bets were radically overturned in Colombia Sunday, as widespread apathy and torrential rains dampened turnout in the referendum on the peace deal. Opponents of the deal appeared as surprised as anyone at their own victory, triumphing by fewer than 55,000 votes in a country of 33 million voters. Abstention topped 60 percent, and the “No” side won with the support of less than one-fifth of total voters, by a margin of 0.16 percent of those eligible to vote. Read more »

Winning the Peace: Paying for Colombia’s Peace Deal

by Matthew Taylor
Colombia, plebiscite, peace deal, Si, FARC, United States, drug trade, bacrim, peace, Plan Colombia, forgiveness, ELN, President Santos Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) fighters walk at the camp where they will ratify a peace deal with the Colombian government, near El Diamantee in Yari Plains, Colombia, September 17, 2016 (Reuters/John Vizcaino).

We are ten days away from Colombia’s momentous October 2 plebiscite on the peace deal. Current polling suggests voters will choose “,” bringing to an end a war that has killed nearly a quarter of a million Colombians and displaced as many as seven million more over the past half century. But although the outlook for approving the deal is good, the battle for the peace will be far longer and more uncertain, requiring a sustained effort for years to come. Five aspects of implementation are particularly thorny, with the fifth—funding the high cost of implementing the deal—undergirding all the rest: Read more »

Credible Commitment and the Colombian Peace Plebiscite

by Matthew Taylor
Colombia, Colombian peace process, FARC, President Juan Manuel Santos, Alvaro Uribe, civil war, public ratification, peace plebiscite Colombia's lead government negotiator Humberto de la Calle (R) and Colombia's FARC lead negotiator Ivan Marquez shake hands after signing the protocol and timetable for the disarmament of the FARC in Havana, Cuba, August 5, 2016 (Reuters/Enrique de la Osa).

The Colombian peace process began in 2012, and by June 2016, appeared to have reached preliminary agreement on a deal that would result in the cessation of hostilities, ending a war that has killed more than a quarter of a million Colombians. Yet somewhat surprisingly, while the deal was initially celebrated as a milestone, recent polling suggests that a declining share of Colombians would actually support it: 39 percent in August, down from 56 percent in July. Read more »