Shannon K. O'Neil

Latin America's Moment

O'Neil analyzes developments in Latin America and U.S. relations in the region.

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Showing posts for "Mexico"

Spillovers From Falling Oil Prices: Risks to Mexico and the United States

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Mexico, Pemex, Oil prices Refinery workers walk at one of the facility's catalytic plants, used to convert heavy hydrocarbon crude oil fractions into lighter gasoline and diesel in Tula November 21, 2013. Mexico's oil refining industry, saddled for years with bloated costs, chronic underinvestment and generous government fuel subsidies, ought to be on the verge of a bright new dawn. A shake-up last month dismantled the state-run Pemex oil and gas monopoly, ending decades of stubborn self-reliance and potentially opening the door to foreign oil companies (Henry Romero/Courtesy Reuters).

Geopolitically, U.S. policymakers generally see high oil prices as bad and low oil prices as good for national interests. In a CFR Working Paper I coauthored with Michael Levi and Alexandra Mahler-Haug we find a sustained drop in oil prices will affect at least one of the United States’ closest trading partners and geopolitical allies negatively: Mexico. Read more »

Guest Post: Latin America, Energy Matrices, and the Future of Climate Change

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil
Latin America, Energy Matrices, Climate Change A Petrobras Oil platform is seen at Guabanara bay in Rio de Janeiro September 24, 2010. Brazilian state oil company Petrobras raised $70 billion on Thursday in the world's biggest share offering, giving the company the financial muscle it needs to tap vast offshore oil reserves (Bruno Domingos/Courtesy Reuters).

This is a guest post by Matthew Michaelides, an intern here at the Council on Foreign Relations who works with me in the Latin America program.

This week world leaders meet in Lima, Peru to discuss the framework for a new UN climate change agreement. The big issues for discussion include financing clean energy projects and implementing cap-and-trade policies, building on the release of a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a landmark climate change accord between the United States and China. Read more »

Taking on Mexico’s Corruption

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Mexico, Corruption, Iguala A girl holds a candle during a protest for the forty-three missing students of the Ayotzinapa Teacher Training College Raul Isidro Burgos, in Chilpancingo, October 30, 2014. The students disappeared in Iguala on September 26 after they clashed with police and masked men. Security forces have combed the area around Iguala in search of the students, whose disappearance has sparked massive protest marches in Mexico and which has become arguably the sternest challenge yet to face Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto (Daniel Becerril/Courtesy Reuters).

Nearly two months ago, forty-three student teachers were murdered in Iguala, Guerrero, Mexico. It was later discovered that the city’s corrupt mayor had had the students arrested and then turned over to a local criminal organization. In this piece published last week in Spanish in El Financiero, I lay out what the federal government can and should do to tackle corruption. You can read the piece in English below:  Read more »

Social Mobility in Mexico

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Mexico, social mobility A boy walks past a mural depicting a child shooting an RPG loaded with school supplies in Ciudad Juarez February 10, 2012. The word reads, "Education" (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Courtesy Reuters).

Earlier this month, the Espinosa Yglesias Research Centre (CEEY) launched the English version of its most recent report on social mobility in Mexico. Creating a measure that combines 2011 household assets and occupational status, they find both good and bad news for aspiring Mexicans. For those in the middle, chances of moving up (or down) are somewhat encouraging, as only a quarter will end up in the same economic group as their parents. But on the richer and poorer ends, the chances of intergenerational change are much lower—only one out of every two individuals will lead an economically different life. Read more »

North America by the Numbers

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Oil Pipelines Pipelines carrying steam to wellheads and heavy oil back to the processing plant line the roads and boreal forest at the Cenovus Energy Christina Lake Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) project 120 km (74 miles) south of Fort McMurray, Alberta, August 15, 2013. Cenovus currently produces 100,000 barrels of heavy oil per day at their Christina Lake tar sands project (Todd Korol/Courtesy Reuters).

How much do Canada and Mexico matter for the United States? Here are a few snapshots illustrating the importance of our combined global heft and influence.

  • North American countries are joined by 7,500 miles of land borders, among the longest in the world.
  • Though comprising less than 7 percent of the world’s population, Canada, Mexico and the United States produce nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP—some 20 trillion dollars.
  • Read more »

North America: Time for a New Focus

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Task Force on North America U.S. President Barack Obama (L) shakes hands with Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper (R) as Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto looks on after attending a news conference, at the North American Leaders' Summit in Toluca near Mexico City, February 19, 2014 (Henry Romero/Courtesy Reuters).

Today I am pleased to launch CFR’s Independent Task Force on North America. I have been working with co-chairs David H. Petraeus and Robert Zoellick, as well as some twenty other Task Force members and observers, over the past year to better understand the myriad issues facing Canada, the United States, and Mexico, and to make concrete policy recommendations for the U.S. government to strengthen the region. We find that while not always the most urgent of policy issues, North America is as vitally important to the United States’ future. Read more »

A Conversation with Enrique Peña Nieto

by Shannon K. O'Neil
Enrique Pena Nieto (Don Pollard/Courtesy Don Pollard Photo).

Yesterday, President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico joined us at the Council on Foreign Relations as part of the Russel C. Leffingwell Lecture series. In a conversation with Robert Rubin, Co-Chairman of CFR, President Peña Nieto discussed the progress of the reforms initiated under his administration and current developments in his country. Read more »

South-South Trade and Latin America

by Shannon K. O'Neil
South-south trade, developing south trade, inter-industry trade, Latin America, exports, intermediary goods Workers harvest soy in a farm during a demonstration of harvest machines in Correntina, Bahia March 31, 2010. Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is estimated to be 67.5 million tonnes (Paulo Whitaker/Courtesy Reuters).

The economic rise of the developing south is one of the biggest trends of the last decade, accelerated by the 2008 global economic downturn. Since 2001 trade between these countries has grown 18 percent a year on average, outpacing global trade growth of 11 percent. Nearly half of all exports worldwide now originate in emerging markets—predominantly Asia. Read more »

Guest Post: Sustaining Mexico’s Energy Reform

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil
Mexican Fund for Stabilization and Development Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto (C), President of Mexico's Senate Raul Cervantes (L) and President of the Chamber of Deputies Jose Gonzalez hold up a written version of an energy reform at the National Palace in Mexico City August 11, 2014 (Edgar Garrido/Reuters).

This is a guest post by Greg Mendoza, an MA student at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. He previously was an intern in the Latin America Studies program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Last year, Mexico passed a historic energy reform to end over seventy years of exclusive state control of the energy sector. Some analysts estimate drastic changes in the sector—with upwards of twenty billion dollars in foreign direct investment a year that could boost GDP 2 percent annually by 2025. Read more »

Guest Post: Mexico’s Aerospace Sector Takes Flight

by Guest Blogger for Shannon K. O'Neil
An Aeromexico Boeing 777 taxis after completing the first ever commercial transatlantic flight using biofuel between Mexico City and Madrid at Madrid's Barajas airport August 2, 2011 (Paul Hanna/Courtesy Reuters). An Aeromexico Boeing 777 taxis after completing the first ever commercial transatlantic flight using biofuel between Mexico City and Madrid at Madrid's Barajas airport August 2, 2011 (Paul Hanna/Courtesy Reuters).

This is a guest post by Stephanie Leutert, who is beginning an MA in Global Affairs at Yale University in the fall. She previously was my research associate in the Latin America Studies program at the Council on Foreign Relations. Read more »