Stewart M. Patrick

The Internationalist

Patrick assesses the future of world order, state sovereignty, and multilateral cooperation.

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Showing posts for "Rising Powers"

Learning to Compartmentalize: How to Prevent Big Power Frictions from Becoming Major Global Headaches

by Stewart M. Patrick
U.S. President Barack Obama (C) participates in a G7 leaders meeting during the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague March 24, 2014. At the table (L-R, clockwise) are the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, French President Francois Hollande, British Prime Minister David Cameron, Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. (Jerry Lampen/Courtesy Reuters). U.S. President Barack Obama (C) participates in a G7 leaders meeting during the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague March 24, 2014. At the table (L-R, clockwise) are the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, French President Francois Hollande, British Prime Minister David Cameron, Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. (Jerry Lampen/Courtesy Reuters).

Coauthored by Stewart Patrick and Isabella Bennett, Assistant Director in the International Institutions and Global Governance program.

The G7 is back. Today in Brussels, it meets for the first time since 1998. The group—which includes the United States, France, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Canada—replaces the G8, after suspending Russia for its annexation of Crimea. Read more »

Brazil’s Internet Summit: Building Bridges to Avoid “Splinternet”

by Stewart M. Patrick
In this photo illustration, a man holds an iPad with a Facebook application in an office building at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, September 25, 2013 (Carlos Barria/Courtesy Reuters). In this photo illustration, a man holds an iPad with a Facebook application in an office building at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, September 25, 2013 (Carlos Barria/Courtesy Reuters).

Coauthored with Claire Schachter, research associate in the International Institutions and Global Governance program.

Netizens of the world are in Sao Paulo this week for the Global Multistakeholder Meeting on the Future of Internet Governance (April 23-24). The Brazilian Internet Steering Committee (CGI.br), which organized the gathering in partnership with ICANN (the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers), have high hopes for “NETmundial,” where they hope universal principles for Internet governance will be negotiated. The good news for the United States is that participants seem committed to establishing consensus-based public policies to safeguard the web’s open architecture—as well as to rebooting rather than replacing a multistakeholder governance model that gives equal weight to governments, the private sector, and civil society. Read more »

Winter is Coming: Beyond the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, an Unfinished Battle for Reform

by Guest Blogger for Stewart M. Patrick
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde enters the opening of a news conference in Washington April 10, 2014 (Gary Cameron/Courtesy Reuters). International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde enters the opening of a news conference in Washington April 10, 2014 (Gary Cameron/Courtesy Reuters).

Below is a guest post by Claire Schachterresearch associate in the International Institutions and Global Governance program.

The Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group are underway in Washington, DC. The world’s top finance officials are painting the brightest picture of the global economy since the 2008 financial crisis: global growth is picking up, the United States’ recovery is gaining traction, and the future of the euro appears less precarious. But if one steps back to view the scene with a broader perspective, the portrait darkens. From slower emerging market growth to risk in China’s shadow banking sector to weak internal demand in the southern part of the euro area, the steady recovery of the global economy is hardly a sure bet. Unfinished economic and financial policy reforms litter the post-2008 landscape. A renewed commitment to improving the resilience of the global economy from domestic leaders and international financial governance institutions is critical. Read more »

Missing the Boat to Indonesia: Shortchanging a Strategic Partner

by Stewart M. Patrick
Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during a U.S.-Indonesia bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Nusa Dua, on the Indonesian resort island of Bali October 8, 2013 (Beawiharta/ Courtesy Reuters). Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during a U.S.-Indonesia bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Nusa Dua, on the Indonesian resort island of Bali October 8, 2013 (Beawiharta/ Courtesy Reuters).

An unfortunate casualty of President Obama’s cancelled trip to Asia was the missed opportunity to cement stronger U.S. ties with Indonesia, the emerging giant of Southeast Asia. The bilateral relationship will survive, of course, as will the “comprehensive partnership” the two countries launched in 2010. But the president’s no-show for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bali deprived the United States of a symbolic occasion to highlight how much unites these two boisterous democracies. It also sowed doubts among Indonesian elites about how seriously they should take the U.S. “pivot” to Asia, at a time when the United States and China are offering competing visions of the region’s future. The Obama administration should recall that the key to success in diplomacy (as in life, according to Woody Allen) is mostly just showing up. Read more »

Syria Shows Why the G20 Needs a Foreign Ministers Track

by Stewart M. Patrick
Russia's President Vladimir Putin leaves a meeting next to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the the G20 Summit in Los Cabos in June 2012 (Victor Ruiz, Courtesy Reuters). Russia's President Vladimir Putin leaves a meeting next to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the the G20 Summit in Los Cabos in June 2012 (Victor Ruiz, Courtesy Reuters).

Ever since President George W. Bush invited leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) to Washington five years ago, the annual summit agenda has been dominated by finance ministers and central bank governors. For a while, that made sense. After all, the rationale for the G20 was to rescue the world from the depths of the financial crisis and get the global recovery up and running. Afraid of diluting the body’s effectiveness, Barack Obama and his foreign counterparts resisted expanding the group’s remit beyond traditional economic issues like monetary and fiscal policy, financial regulation, trade liberalization, and development. Read more »

The Future of Internet Governance: 90 Places to Start

by Stewart M. Patrick
A map is displayed on one of the screens at the Air Force Space Command Network Operations & Security Center at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colorado July 20, 2010. U.S. national security planners are proposing that the 21st century's critical infrastructure—power grids, communications, water utilities, financial networks—be similarly shielded from cyber marauders and other foes (Rick Wilking/Courtesy Reuters). A map is displayed on one of the screens at the Air Force Space Command Network Operations & Security Center at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colorado July 20, 2010. U.S. national security planners are proposing that the 21st century's critical infrastructure—power grids, communications, water utilities, financial networks—be similarly shielded from cyber marauders and other foes (Rick Wilking/Courtesy Reuters).

The open, global Internet, which has created untold wealth and empowered billions of individuals, is in jeopardy. Around the world, “nations are reasserting sovereignty and territorializing cyberspace” to better control the political, economic, social activities of their citizens, and the content they can access. These top-down efforts undermine the Internet’s existing decentralized, multi-stakeholder system of governance and threaten its fragmentation into multiple national intranets. To preserve an open system that reflects its interests and values while remaining both secure and resilient, the United States must unite a coalition of like-minded states committed to free expression and free markets and prepared to embrace new strategies to combat cyber crime and rules to govern cyber warfare. Read more »

The Geopolitics of the Internet: Seeing the Negotiating Table

by Stewart M. Patrick
Fiber optic cables carrying internet providers are seen running into a server room at Intergate, Manhattan. The 32-story building will be the largest high-rise data center in the world with 600,000 square feet (55,742 square meters) of data center floor space and 40 Megawatts of electrical capacity. (Mike Segar/Courtesy Reuters) Fiber optic cables carrying internet providers are seen running into a server room at Intergate, Manhattan. The 32-story building will be the largest high-rise data center in the world with 600,000 square feet (55,742 square meters) of data center floor space and 40 Megawatts of electrical capacity. (Mike Segar/Courtesy Reuters)

Coauthored with Andrew Reddie, research associate in the International Institutions and Global Governance program.

Will the Internet’s future resemble its past? That seems increasingly unlikely, given the growing influence of new global powers, the determination of many governments to control Internet access and content, and the difficulties of balancing security and civil liberties. This was the take-home message at a meeting last week on “The Geopolitics of Internet Governance,” hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The coming transformation may well challenge the longstanding U.S. vision of an open network whose governance remains largely in private hands. Read more »

Secretary Clinton’s Valedictory: “Widening the Aperture of Our Engagement”

by Stewart M. Patrick
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton answers questions from the audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington on January 31, 2013 (Yuri Gripas/Courtesy Reuters). U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton answers questions from the audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington on January 31, 2013 (Yuri Gripas/Courtesy Reuters).

In a valedictory address delivered today at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for a new era of American global leadership. The United States remains the world’s “indispensable” power, she insisted. It is the cornerstone of a “just, rules-based international order.” But she warned against complacency. “Leadership is not a birthright,” she insisted. “It has to be earned by each new generation.” To lead in the twenty-first century, the United States will need to “adapt to these new realities of global power and influence,” by exploiting its entire array of policy levers, cultivating diverse partnerships and networks, and forging a “new international architecture” tailored to new global challenges and emerging powers. Read more »

Through the Glass Darkly: What U.S. Intelligence Predicts for 2030

by Stewart M. Patrick
The NIC suggests that urbanization is the one of the key future global trends. (Courtesy Ricardo Moraes/Reuters) The NIC suggests that urbanization is the one of the key future global trends. (Courtesy Ricardo Moraes/Reuters)

Mathew Burrows, counselor to the National Intelligence Council, may have the most fascinating job in Washington. Every four to five years he coordinates the U.S. intelligence community’s crystal-ball gazing exercise, which imagines what the future will bring fifteen to twenty years hence. The sixth and most recent installment, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, offers an eye-opening  glimpse into the turbulent world we will inherit as middle classes grow, power shifts to developing countries, demographics change, and humanity confronts daunting ecological constraints. Read more »

A New Agenda for the G20: Addressing Fragile States

by Stewart M. Patrick
People walk along Red Square, with Saint Basil's Cathedral in the background, in central Moscow where the G20 summit  will be held later this year. (Denis Sinyakov/Courtesy Reuters) People walk along Red Square, with Saint Basil's Cathedral in the background, in central Moscow where the G20 summit will be held later this year. (Denis Sinyakov/Courtesy Reuters)

– Moscow

Having recently assumed the rotating chair of the Group of Twenty (G20), the Russian government is now soliciting input on the agenda for its September 2013 meeting in St. Petersburg. Yesterday I contributed to these deliberations as a member of the “Think20”network—a consortium of independent experts from around the world. My own advice to the Russian sherpa, Ksenia Yudaeva, was that Russia should transform the G20’s nascent development agenda to address the pressing challenge of fragile states. Read more »