I think this is potentially very good news. It is not quite Tom Barnett's scenario – that would imply BP and Exxon buying up Chinese oil firms or building infrastructure to supply the Chinese markets so that they profit (or profit even more) from rising Chinese demand for oil. That is not really happening. China can finance its own oil infrastructure, thank you very much. It also would like to finance the development of the new oil fields needed to meet growing Chinese demand. But that is proving a bit difficult. China has plenty of cash, but much of the oil that is left seems to reserved for the national oil companies of the producing country. Other assets are owned by Western oil companies who got in early and who are not inclined to sell their cash cows right now.
So Chinese firms buying into western oil firms (and buying into their overseas reserves) – or just swapping assets — is a rather constructive way for China to address its concerns about energy security. Better than cozying up to Iran. Or Richard Clark's scenario.
i agree totally
short run a share type trans nat entanglement
might kool a few jetsonon both sides
but if we go nose to nosesome day
ala us/japan circa 1937
which i assure you
the party plans for
the only joint projects creditable to the prc
would be contiguous asian fields
where the party might feel china held sufficent
” security ” high cards to hold their ground in a wrangle
and yet in a spirit of” sharing”
co- projects elsewhere
with big oil trans nats might work anyway
if they also open doors in “secure” fringe areas
canadian tar sands are up for grabs tho and iirc china is helping buildpipelines from alberta to the pacific and there’s always africa…
btw Economic Ties Binding Japan to Rival China, now shanghai isn’t china, much less beijing, but if say the ‘new pragmatism’ between china and taiwan can take hold between china and japan, a la singapore, then i think going ‘nose to nose’ someday diminishes somewhat.
otoh, it looks like japan is finally ‘normalising the state‘ we’ll see how it goes in the east china sea…
mystery guest:
just want to mention
mister lee of singapore…..
an authentic geo economic wizard
great interview
btw
nose to nose with uncle
and as lee i feel politely implies
if there’s a nose to nose any time sooner
then 2030
it’ll be uncle’s insufferable push push that caused it
i actually kinda take comfort that they’re planning for ‘it’ (WE are too, obviously
cuz if they are (actively considering the implications) i think it makes ‘it’ much less likely to happen! zakaria lays out the promise and perils of china’s so-called “peaceful rise.”
“if they are (actively considering the implications) i think it makes ‘it’ much less likely to happen”
right on !!!!!!