Comments on: How long can non-oil imports remain flat if the US economy continues to grow? (The May trade data) http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: MrBill http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89011 MrBill Fri, 14 Jul 2006 01:32:57 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89011 "I'll be going in India for vacation near cashmeere next month ... :-)" Bring us back a sweater, too ; - ) “I’ll be going in India for vacation near cashmeere next month … :-) ”

Bring us back a sweater, too ; – )

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89010 Guest Thu, 13 Jul 2006 05:53:47 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89010 re: "if they don't go bankrupt because of less consumers" It's my impression that cargo frequently pays a good chunk of the bill on flights that carry the masses. If the trend is towards more, smaller planes carrying fewer people, have to wonder how many may be private. Hope you share a few India stories with us. Sounds like its stock market remains optomistic in spite of this week's happenings. re: “if they don’t go bankrupt because of less consumers”

It’s my impression that cargo frequently pays a good chunk of the bill on flights that carry the masses. If the trend is towards more, smaller planes carrying fewer people, have to wonder how many may be private.

Hope you share a few India stories with us. Sounds like its stock market remains optomistic in spite of this week’s happenings.

]]> By: DF http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89009 DF Thu, 13 Jul 2006 05:00:35 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89009 ... with fuel costs growing many carriers are expected to update their fleets with more fuel efficient planes... * That's if they don't go bankrupt because of less consumers. Besides, I dunno about you but on this list of wonderful countries with beautiful sights and high potential, where would you go as a tourist or a businessman : iraq iran syria liban israel india (especially cashmeere) afganhistan somalia mexico ivory coast zimbabwe tchad OK there has always trouble around in the world. These days there just seem to be a bit more of it. I'll be going in India for vacation near cashmeere next month ... :-) A380 is rather fuel efficient from what I head. If it can lower costs it may be a winner. But anyway building zeppelins would be wiser. … with fuel costs growing many carriers are expected to update their fleets with more fuel efficient planes… *

That’s if they don’t go bankrupt because of less consumers. Besides, I dunno about you but on this list of wonderful countries with beautiful sights and high potential, where would you go as a tourist or a businessman :
iraq
iran
syria
liban
israel
india (especially cashmeere)
afganhistan
somalia
mexico
ivory coast
zimbabwe
tchad

OK there has always trouble around in the world. These days there just seem to be a bit more of it.

I’ll be going in India for vacation near cashmeere next month … :-)

A380 is rather fuel efficient from what I head. If it can lower costs it may be a winner. But anyway building zeppelins would be wiser.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89008 Guest Thu, 13 Jul 2006 03:45:39 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89008 "...Consider a Business Roundtable study, using data that Mercer Human Resource Consulting collected on 350 major companies. The idea was to examine median CEOs -- those in the middle -- as typical. Here's what the study found: From 1995 to 2005 median CEO compensation at these companies rose 151 percent, from $2.7 million to $6.8 million (the figure included base salary, bonuses, stock options and other "incentives" - but not pensions)... In the same period, the median sales of these companies increased 51 percent, to $7.6 billion, and the median profits 126 percent, to $591 million... CEOs... are slowly becoming a threat to the very system they claim to represent." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201871.html “…Consider a Business Roundtable study, using data that Mercer Human Resource Consulting collected on 350 major companies. The idea was to examine median CEOs — those in the middle — as typical. Here’s what the study found: From 1995 to 2005 median CEO compensation at these companies rose 151 percent, from $2.7 million to $6.8 million (the figure included base salary, bonuses, stock options and other “incentives” – but not pensions)… In the same period, the median sales of these companies increased 51 percent, to $7.6 billion, and the median profits 126 percent, to $591 million… CEOs… are slowly becoming a threat to the very system they claim to represent.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201871.html

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89007 Guest Thu, 13 Jul 2006 03:17:34 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89007 "Airlines are set to pump $2.6 trillion (£1.4 trillion) into buying new commercial jets over the next 20 years, aerospace group Boeing has predicted... with fuel costs growing many carriers are expected to update their fleets with more fuel efficient planes... The fast growing Asian market is expected to lead demand for new aircraft - taking a 36% share of the forecast $2.6 trillion market. Strong demand is also predicted from emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa... " http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5175010.stm “Airlines are set to pump $2.6 trillion (£1.4 trillion) into buying new commercial jets over the next 20 years, aerospace group Boeing has predicted… with fuel costs growing many carriers are expected to update their fleets with more fuel efficient planes… The fast growing Asian market is expected to lead demand for new aircraft – taking a 36% share of the forecast $2.6 trillion market. Strong demand is also predicted from emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa… ” http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5175010.stm

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89006 Guest Thu, 13 Jul 2006 03:06:45 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89006 re: "Closing a trade gap is as much psychological as it is physical." Might say more political than psychological. You left out Nortel! and then there is Worldcom, and Enron, which have their own China connections, along with some Canada-US and US-UK relations (NatWest Three on extradition flight http://www.guardian.co.uk/enron/story/0,,1819395,00.html). "...Yet today both market-based electricity pricing and high-yield bonds are staple instruments of the financial world..." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/19197600-103d-11db-8f6f-0000779e2340.html re: “Closing a trade gap is as much psychological as it is physical.”

Might say more political than psychological.

You left out Nortel! and then there is Worldcom, and Enron, which have their own China connections, along with some Canada-US and US-UK relations (NatWest Three on extradition flight http://www.guardian.co.uk/enron/story/0,,1819395,00.html).

“…Yet today both market-based electricity pricing and high-yield bonds are staple instruments of the financial world…” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/19197600-103d-11db-8f6f-0000779e2340.html

]]> By: DOR http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89005 DOR Thu, 13 Jul 2006 01:06:33 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89005 Movie Guy, The most popular explanation these days for why someone does something like what Sen. Grassley did seems to be "He hates America". Honestly, I don't know. His stated excuse is that Americans abroad are getting a free ride from domestic taxpayers, which doesn't exactly fit. Americans abroad don't use the same kinds or amounts of government service as US residents, and more important, we compete on an international playing field where virtually no other nation of economic significance taxes citizens abroad at all. . Movie Guy,

The most popular explanation these days for why someone does something like what Sen. Grassley did seems to be “He hates America”.

Honestly, I don’t know. His stated excuse is that Americans abroad are getting a free ride from domestic taxpayers, which doesn’t exactly fit. Americans abroad don’t use the same kinds or amounts of government service as US residents, and more important, we compete on an international playing field where virtually no other nation of economic significance taxes citizens abroad at all.

.

]]> By: MrBill http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89004 MrBill Thu, 13 Jul 2006 00:37:12 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89004 Closing a trade gap is as much psychological as it is physical. Airplanes alone cannot do the trick. China is going to become the second largest maker of automobiles according to this op-ed piece on Econbrowser (http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/07/china_roars_int.html), can airplanes like building ships be that far behind? What did McDonnell Douglas get from its failed JV in China except a shotgun wedding with Boeing? "A failed joint venture in China was a major cause of McDonnell Douglas's downfall, as chronicled in Joe Studwell's book The China Dream. He describes McDonnell's returns for two decades in China as "40 Sino-US marriages among its staff and untold embarrassment."" (Source: http://www.answers.com/topic/mcdonnell-douglas) They backed the wrong horse or the wrong aviation ministry in this case. Ditto for CANDU Reactors from Canada. Great idea to sell reactors to emerging markets. The Chinese signed a deal for ten, if Canada would build a prototype? Yep, they built the prototype, and then Beijing decided they did not have the money to buy the other nine reactors, but thanks for the technology. "By 1995, Canadian taxpayers had put $13 billion into CANDU reactors, and AECL is soaking up about $200 million a year in subsidies. The Canadian government has tried to get some of that money back by selling CANDU reactors to other countries." (Source: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3695/is_200003/ai_n8893285) Typical Canada! Maybe Bombardier can help the Chinese build some planes, too? With export financing from Canadian taxpayers, of course! ; - ) Given strengthening trade ties between China and Brazil, can it be long before China invites Embraer to help set-up a factory in China with the inducement of a fat order book once things get going? Hmmm? Closing a trade gap is as much psychological as it is physical.

Airplanes alone cannot do the trick. China is going to become the second largest maker of automobiles according to this op-ed piece on Econbrowser (http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/07/china_roars_int.html), can airplanes like building ships be that far behind?

What did McDonnell Douglas get from its failed JV in China except a shotgun wedding with Boeing?

“A failed joint venture in China was a major cause of McDonnell Douglas’s downfall, as chronicled in Joe Studwell’s book The China Dream. He describes McDonnell’s returns for two decades in China as “40 Sino-US marriages among its staff and untold embarrassment.”" (Source: http://www.answers.com/topic/mcdonnell-douglas)

They backed the wrong horse or the wrong aviation ministry in this case.

Ditto for CANDU Reactors from Canada. Great idea to sell reactors to emerging markets. The Chinese signed a deal for ten, if Canada would build a prototype? Yep, they built the prototype, and then Beijing decided they did not have the money to buy the other nine reactors, but thanks for the technology.

“By 1995, Canadian taxpayers had put $13 billion into CANDU reactors, and AECL is soaking up about $200 million a year in subsidies. The Canadian government has tried to get some of that money back by selling CANDU reactors to other countries.”
(Source: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3695/is_200003/ai_n8893285)

Typical Canada! Maybe Bombardier can help the Chinese build some planes, too? With export financing from Canadian taxpayers, of course! ; – )

Given strengthening trade ties between China and Brazil, can it be long before China invites Embraer to help set-up a factory in China with the inducement of a fat order book once things get going? Hmmm?

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89003 Guest Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:44:18 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89003 <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=19396.0">Is Housing Wealth an 'ATM'? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates</a> Is Housing Wealth an ‘ATM’? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89002 Guest Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:42:18 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2006/07/12/how-long-can-non-oil-imports-remain-flat-if-the/#comment-89002 <a href="http://federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20060706/">Don Kohn:</a> "The second force affecting global imbalances has been the continuing strong demand for dollar assets, without which exchange rates and other prices already would have adjusted to limit the growth of the imbalances... Private investors apparently perceive opportunities for relatively high returns on dollar assets in light of the more rapid growth of productivity in the United States than in many other industrialized economies. The attraction of dollar assets likely also is enhanced by the liquid nature of the markets in which they trade and because as collateral these assets are protected by the rule of law and have been a safe haven in times of stress." Don Kohn: “The second force affecting global imbalances has been the continuing strong demand for dollar assets, without which exchange rates and other prices already would have adjusted to limit the growth of the imbalances… Private investors apparently perceive opportunities for relatively high returns on dollar assets in light of the more rapid growth of productivity in the United States than in many other industrialized economies. The attraction of dollar assets likely also is enhanced by the liquid nature of the markets in which they trade and because as collateral these assets are protected by the rule of law and have been a safe haven in times of stress.”

]]>