Comments on: Are all beneficiaries of trade diffuse and unorganized?

By: Anonymous

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By: Matija

Matija — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:23:59 +0000

Well it is kinda funny, but hey what do I know I’m just a student from a small European country,
Perhaps China isn’t loosing a trillion, if it will just buy a whole lot of Microsoft Windows+office, Boeings, a whole bunch of what GE offers, don’t forget killing people is big business for GD, Northrop… in the future(and a few congressmen)
we could have seen it coming that even the workers, making 1/33 of our wages, would dream of beter life(you can’t have them watching all the Hollywood movies, and not get any crazy ideas about better world in their head, blame Brad Pitt), surely all that investment, and since the opening up, coming in would not be just for toy factories, and condoms… Now they can assist us over phone…
Maybe we should have shared our wealth from the beginning, and perhaps they will be wiser and do it themselves, and help debr-ridden(unemployed)consumers, even more directly,subsidiesing monthy Ford Explorer payments, and ever the petrol…
Who knows, but I am sure attending an American scholl if the Usd keeps declining, so I am the clear winner of the globaisation, and meybe a few chinees showering every day, and going to the local Wal mart, and having a job…
Well it’s late, so for any mistakes I appologise, and don’t forget to invest in the CEO, if you know what I mean, but I am staying away from the banks, for now.
Don’t let the globalisation keep you down, for the end: Like Weather, one’s fortune may change by the evening, What you do not wish upon yourself, extend not to others.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:19:26 +0000

Brad, very good post.

Alex,

From a systemic perspective, what’s now termed ‘globalization’ has been part of capitalism’s genetic code from day one. That is, capitalist production was not and is not for production’s sake but, rather, profit and accumulation. This system is driven to expand (and over expand, over accumulate). Today’s TNC’s are the latest manifestation of this dynamic; they are its most advanced organizational form, and one which might be understood as rising from the constraints of the simply national and inter-national into a partially anational. ‘Partially’ since there’s a dialectic here of national states and transnational capital — no national state can, even as empire, become an actually global state while the largest transnats cannot reverse course, regressing to simple national firms. These global corps have been adept at playing nation against nation in order to obtain the largest direct and indirect subsidies in exchange for the provision of employment.

‘Global assembly lines’ – as intra-firm – might also be understood as the negation of trade in the classical sense. From the perspective of a system of national states in which political borders remain conflated with economic boundaries, intra-firm transfers are taken as trade but from the global perspective, this trade is simply transfer. Nevertheless, and just like the capitalism of old, labor value is appropriated and requires realization through actual exchange, which is where consumer and national deficits and surpluses come in as well as the unequal exchange of more labor for less, which is not just terms of trade but differences in the technical composition of production capital, associated productivity differentials, and competition induced difficulties creating sufficient new employment in China, here, most (all?) of rest of world.

The question of globalization’s winners and losers is fairly politicized but the rise in inequality within and between nations has, IMO, been sufficiently documented.
Has everybody gained, though some less than others? Does ‘everybody get something from it’? Yes, but as both Old Vet and Brad note, that ‘something’ is not always a positive, and that also holds for LatAm, Asia, Africa, Europe…

Is it an unstopable process? Nope, just look at how the prior phase of globalization ended.

Alex, please pardon if the above is too condensed and unintelligable, or if you are already thinking along the same lines.

By: Alex

Alex — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 21:25:32 +0000

“Americans will tolerate so-called free trade only up to a certain point. A number of countries are beginning to reject it.”

Hey Charles I hate to intrude but America today would not survive without Bretton Woods 2. The United States has a negative savings rate and moving to anything approximatating real savings means that people will have to reduce their consumption and therefore their standard of living.

Sure on paper the trade deficit is only 6% of GDP but have you gone walked into a retail store lately? How many items do you think are actually made in the US at Target or Wal Mart?

Could you imagine what would happen if one day if magically yanked all the Chinese made goods out of Wal Mart and Target or decide to price them up 20%. The consumer would get killed, instant 20% inflation!

Sure healthcare and energy costs are soaring now imagine adding manufactured goods to plate? The American consumer would wither under the crippling load of inflation.

I’m not saying that the current system is sustainable. As I said elsewhere shooting up ,whether its on heroin or cheap foreign credit, is by no means a feasible long term economic policy.

But I think people like you should realize that coming off of Bretton Woods 2 would mean the end of the global economy as we know it today.

Things wouldn’t just be honky dory if the Bretton Woods II just ended. I have the uneasy feeling that it would be accompanied by all sorts of violence and mayhem.

Remember what happened after 1929? I think it would be even worse economically and politically if Bretton Woods 2 simply ended abruptly.

By: Charles

Charles — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 19:04:52 +0000

Agreed that this is a good post. As much as I appreciate DeLong’s insights into the economy, he does in my opinion become tedious in the defense of trade. And it all comes down to an assumption buried in Friedman’s utilitarian argument that so seduced this generation of economists.

People do not exist to benefit economies, nor to test economic theories. Economies exist to benefit people. Americans will tolerate so-called free trade only up to a certain point. A number of countries are beginning to reject it.

The problem comes in fulfilling the utilitarian condition of distributing the benefits. Yes, it’s a net plus if labor-intensive skills are performed by an uneducated Chinese worker so that a skilled American worker can work at ever-higher levels of skill. The Chinese worker has employment, the American worker buys cheaper goods, and the world is good. But what if the employer simply replaces the American worker with a Chinese worker, lowers the price of goods only enough to keep out American competition, and keeps all the increased profit for himself?

Unfortunately, academics like DeLong just can’t be bothered with the havoc that trade that fails to meet utilitarian conditions can wreak. One wonders how they will adapt their models to incorporate the second Mexican revolution.

Sometimes the brightest are also the slowest to see.

Charles of MercuryRising
http://www.phoenixwoman.blogspot.com

By: Alex

Alex — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 16:42:22 +0000

I suppose the great irony of all this is that the world’s economy would come to crashing halt if the system of globalization ended. Why do even bother to debate the issue. No more global trade=economic collapse.

So what would we do if the world’s economy collapsed? So are there stakeholders in globalization of course:everyone!

Its alot like that old expression that the Americal division used during the Vietnam War “We had to destroy the village to save it.”

Is our current economic system any different?

By: Gcs

Gcs — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 15:22:00 +0000

very very important post

maybe a bit too gentle on the barge mouth of berkley
for my nasty streak

but right on target brad

By: Lord

Lord — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 08:40:15 +0000

Who needs free trade when we can have free lunch? Too bad we all can’t have it. Some are just too piggy.

By: Steve Waldman

Steve Waldman — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 08:06:21 +0000

Brad, lovely post. There’s a propensity in economics to elevate ideas descriptive of a certain era to theory, and then to dogma among a certain intelligentsia. As your post reminds us, which constituencies are organized and which are diffuse in a political sense is a facts-on-the-ground question, and probably not subject to immutable laws.

The theoretical case for free trade reminds me of the case for the Iraq War among liberal hawks (myself included). Under certain assumptions about how the enterprise would be prosecuted, there may have been a strong case. But, the actual players in this real world were never going to do that kind of war. People like me were “useful idiots” in the classic sense. Blinded by a nice theory, we overlooked an ugly reality. Many of those arguing for this moment’s version of free trade and globalization are, I think, making the same mistake. Done right, free trade and globalization are fantastic ideas. But this exchange of free goods for nominal debt backed by diminishing tradables production is not what Adam Smith had in mind. Perhaps it is what Herb Stein had in mind, though. When what can’t go on forever doesn’t and we face “adjustment”, it’ll be hard to convince the public that free trade is a great idea, it’s just never really been tried.

By: Dave Chiang

Dave Chiang — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 06:36:04 +0000

To Charles,

The Washington Consensus bureaucrats are obviously concerned about the US trade deficit with the World. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will visit China this month, to demand the Chinese allow their currency, the yuan or renminbi, to rise in value on world markets to make US exports more cometitive. It isn’t going to work. There is very little wealth producing Industrial capacity left in the United States. Besides Beef and Boeing jets, what does the US still manufacture that can be exported to China or Japan? It maybe politically correct to blame the Chinese for everything, but shouldn’t America’s lack of Industrial policy also be examined. And why are economic decisions in Washington always made to exclusively benefit the narrow economic interests of Wall Street insiders (ie. former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin’s decision to massively overvalue the US dollar that has decimated the US manufacturing sector during the Clinton Administration).

Regards,